249
FXUS63 KJKL 172138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
438 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm front will usher in a milder and more moist air mass into
  the region on Tuesday and this mild and more moist airmass
  should linger through the week.

- Multiple weather systems should bring rain or showers at times
  beginning Tuesday and extending through the week.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms across
  western sections of eastern KY from late Tuesday afternoon into
  Tuesday evening. Hail and damaging winds are the primary
  threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 415 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper low was centered in the Maritimes
with the associate upper trough extending south into the Atlantic
east of the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, an upper level low was
centered in the western NE vicinity with shortwave ridging
extending across the Four Corners vicinity with another upper low
to the west over CA. A shortwave in advance of the High
Plains/central Conus upper low extend across parts of the Central
Plains toward the Arklatex region. Locally, shortwave upper
ridging in the MS Valley has led to an upward trend in 500 mb
heights across the Commonwealth today. Sfc high pressure was
centered over central and eastern KY at present while an area of
low pressure was beginning to organize in the Plains near the KS
and NE border. The systems warm front extending southeast to the
Lower MS Valley while the cold front trialed into TX. With the sfc
and upper ridge dominating.

This evening and tonight, the axis of upper ridging will move east
and shift east of eastern KY around or shortly after dawn.
Meanwhile the lead shortwave trough now in the central Conus will
approach from the west and southwest as the upper low tracks to IA.
An increase in moisture is expected tonight, mainly at high and
then mid levels as the shortwave trough nears and the warm front
begins to lift toward the OH and TN valleys as the sfc low tracks
to the mid MS Valley region by around dawn. Some virga or
sprinkles or may fall from this precipitation and there is a
small chance (20 to 30%) of measurable rain form this near and
north of the I-64 corridor late. Otherwise, valleys in the east
and south in particulars should decouple early and drop off to if
not a couple of degrees below the freezing mark by shortly after
midnight. Then as the mid level clouds arrive temps should level
off it not tend to rise a couple of degrees toward dawn. If more
substantial rates were to arrive in area around or below the
freezing mark brief spotty slick spots/freezing rain cannot be
entirely ruled out. Confidence in that occurring was too low to
include in the grids at this point, but later shifts will continue
to monitor trends and continue to evaluate. Temperatures should
rise to the upper 30s and then 40s not long after sunrise in all
areas.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper level low should track to the
Great Lakes by Tuesday evening and weaken to an open wave and
reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. The initial
shortwave should cross the region Tuesday afternoon to early
evening followed by the next shortwave later in the evening. At
the same time, the sfc system should track toward the Delmarva
with the trailing cold front approaching the area to end the
period. Temperatures peaking in the upper 50s to upper 60s in the
far weest and southwest along with dewpoints rise to near 50 or
the low 50s would result in limited SBCAPE of not much more than
100 to 200 J/kg if that while MUCAPE reaches 250 to 500 J/kg with
bulk shear on the order of 50KT.

12Z HREF Max 2-5km UH probs are higher west of the region into the
southern IN to Central KY in the Louisville vicinity late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. 06Z REFS probs are also greater from
around I-75 west with a local max in probabilities in the
Cumberland Valley area for Tuesday evening. The 18Z HRRR for
example has some signals for gustiness with showers/possible
storms near or north of the Mtn Pkwy late Tuesday afternoon to
early evening and keeps the more robust convection with a
concentration of UH swaths nearer to the Louisville area as well
and other swaths mainly west of I-75. If there is an initial
somewhat gusty line of showers/storms it may be followed by a
second round of gusty showers later in the evening in the west and
especially southwest and with mid level lapse rates peaking near
7C/km in the evening marginally large hail may also be a concern.
Social media weatherstory posts will be sent to highlight the
Marginal Risk. Chances for showers should wane late Tuesday night
as the cold front sags further into the Commonwealth.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025

Early Wednesday morning, numerous showers will likely be ongoing
from a mid-level disturbance that was working its way trough
Kentucky Tuesday evening. The warm front from this system is
expected to stall out, becoming a stationary front located around
the Bluegrass area. The lows center and subsequent short wave trough
axis will also be passing through Eastern Kentucky early Wednesday
morning.  Isolated to scattered showers will be most likely earlier
in the morning, tapering off later in the afternoon as the system
progress Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic states.

Elsewhere by Wednesday morning, models are in fairly good agreement
of an upper level low off the Baja, California cost, and a secondary
upper level low futher north and west off the coastline of British
Columbia, Canada. Through the day Wednesday this "Baja-Low" moves
onshore, and over the 4-Corners area of the Southwest US. The
downstream (eastward side) of the upper level low will pull in deep
moisture rich air from the Gulf and around the sub-tropical high.

By Thursday, the systems warm front is expected to push northward
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, producing another round of
showers, increasing in coverage heading into the evening.
Thunderstorm chances also increase Thursday evening and overnight.

By Friday morning, most models agree on the warm front sitting north
of the area, into the Ohio River Valley, with a stationary front
extending west toward the lows center in the Ozarks. Shower chances
remain high through Friday as shower activity will likely ride the
stationary boundary across the area from the Ozarks. Obviously
boundary location is particularly important as the next few day evolve
to see where most persistent rains set up.

Current guidance has this upper-level low progressing eastward
through the morning Saturday, leading to shower chances being
greatest in the morning, but slowly diminishing through the
afternoon. The secondary upper-low that was near British Columbia
previously, is modeled to become a closed low over the Baja
Peninsula, Saturday morning.

Models, and ensembles are struggling with the upstream pattern
Friday through next weekend. Overall the NBM is trending slightly
warmer run to run, decreasing confidence in the timing and strength
of a cold frontal passage this weekend. This can be seen in a large
range of probabilistic temperature forecasts in the NBM from Friday
night onwards. At current, Sunday and Monday look to be trending
dry, however with the degree of uncertainty NBM PoPs of 15% were
left in the forecast each day, resulting in slight chance of rain
showers wording remaining.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, though clouds
will increase generally after 00Z and then thicken and lower
mainly after 06Z as a warm front approaches, but still remain the
VFR ranges through 18Z as the warm front nears. Some reductions to
MVFR are possible after around 12Z in any heavier showers. PROB30
groups is included for MVFR cigs and -SHRA were used for several
of the TAF during that time. Winds will generally be light and
variable through 12Z, and then become southeast to south at up to
10KT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP