880
FXUS63 KJKL 060947
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
547 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions will prevail again today.

- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms moving southeast over the area Tuesday and Tuesday
  night, followed by cooler weather to finish the week.

- There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through
  Tuesday night, with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 547 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Early this morning, high pressure aloft is centered near the VA/NC
coast, while surface high pressure is centered offshore. On the
south side of the high, Atlantic and gulf moisture is advecting
west and northwest into the southeast CONUS (still mainly to our
south). Meanwhile, an upper trough extends from south central
Canada southwestward into the western CONUS. The trough will
advance eastward through Monday, especially its northern extent.
This will flatten the upper high/ridging, suppressing it
southward, while the surface high slips eastward. The advancing
trough will also support a surface cold front which will arrive in
Kentucky from the northwest on Tuesday. Flow between the
departing surface high and the cold front will advect the moisture
northward and northeastward. The front and upper trough will act
on this to produce an area of showers which will move in from the
northwest late tonight and Tuesday. Precipitable water is
forecast to reach 1.5-2" ahead of the front. Should convection
repeatedly fire over the same areas, efficient rain production
could bring locally heavy amounts. A lack of rainfall recently
will give a bit of cushion before excessive rain becomes a
problem.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 547 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Showers/thunderstorms should be ongoing as we move into Tuesday
night, as a cold front and upper trough move in from the
northwest. The front will exit to our southeast late tuesday night
and early Wednesday while the upper trough slips to our east. This
will leave us with west northwest flow aloft and surface high
pressure passing east over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, sending
us noticeably cooler and drier air.

Multiple shortwave troughs are expected to move southeast in the
flow aloft late in the week and consolidate into a closed upper
low next weekend. The ECMWF and GFS have both shifted the low`s
placement northeastward since yesterday, and now show it in the
vicinity of VA and the Carolinas by late Sunday. Along with this,
there is development of a coastal surface low. The new scenario
favors precip being confined to areas to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Localized valley fog will bring sub-VFR conditions to some areas
early this morning, especially in southeast KY, but it`s not
expected to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL