249
FXUS63 KJKL 141640
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1240 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm/hot temperatures and high dew points will persist for the
  next week, resulting in sultry conditions.

- There will be a daily potential for showers/thunderstorms over
  the next week, especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025

Showers are quickly developing northwest of a Paintsville-to-
Jackson-to-Somerset line and some thunder will soon be possible
within the strongest updrafts. Coverage of the convection is
expected to increase through mid-afternoon. Weak, skinny CAPE
profiles (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) will greatly limit any severe
weather potential, but PWATs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches will be
supportive of brief heavy downpours.

UPDATE Issued at 920 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025

A 500H shortwave trough with embedded vort maxes (one centered
near/over Dayton, OH and the other just near/over Paducah) is
gradually dampening as it sluggishly propagates eastward. The
northern vort`s impact appears to be mainly missing our area as
most associated convection is staying in eastern Ohio/West
Virginia at this update. The western vort appears to be associated
with a smattering of convection, as per regional radars, between
Bowling Green and Land of the Lakes. A weaker ribbon of vorticity
connects the vort maxes, with a field of perturbed cumulus between
the areas of ongoing deep convection. Forcing slowly drifts east
northeast through the day. Expect scattered to numerous convection
to initiate over eastern Kentucky ahead of this feature as
convective temperatures are breached (generally 76-83F, north-
south, from the 11z RAP13).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025

A compact vort-max and it`s associated shortwave trough will
weaken throughout the morning as it moves northeast across Ohio.
Even with the vort-max weakening, the shortwave will still provide
enough lift throughout the afternoon to aid in thunderstorm
development. Based on area forecast soundings, mean flow remains
quite weak, but it is aligned in the same easterly direction
through the lower troposphere. Expect thunderstorm activity to
move from west to east throughout the day, with some outflow
interactions possible. Can`t rule out a locally strong downdraft
resulting in wind damage, but this should not be very widespread.
The activity weakens into the evening hours with locally dense fog
possible within area valleys.

Tuesday, another vort-max and weak shortwave will once again track
northwest of the local area, with the trough axis slightly
negatively tilted. This results in a bit more southwesterly mean
flow with afternoon thunderstorms moving more southwest to
northeast. Similar to Monday (today), not expecting much in the
way of severe weather due to the generally weak flow. Wind shear
is a little closer to 20 knots, but the thermodynamic is quite
similar, with skinny CAPE profiles yielding 1500-2500 J/kg.

For both days, above normal PWATs will provide opportunities for
locally heavy rainfall, but this would be isolated to areas where
outflow boundaries increase convergence and potentially slow
storm motions. The local area is currently in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for Monday. The slightly slower storm motions may
support instances of back-building from east to west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT JUL 14 2025

No major updates from the Sunday afternoon issuance of the long
term narrative which is below...

Any thunderstorm activity ongoing Tuesday evening is expected to
quickly weaken into the early overnight hours. Overnight low
temperatures cool down towards 70 degrees.

For the rest of the long term forecast period, the guidance suite
collectively resolves a stagnant weather pattern over the eastern
half of the country. A broad anticyclone is forecast to remain
parked over the Southeastern states, whereas zonal flow will move
through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. The Ohio River
Valley will be situated between the two, and our sensible weather
will accordingly be driven by characteristics of both.
Southwesterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere will
persistently advect a warm, moist airmass into the Commonwealth,
keeping temperatures and humidity high. This will lead to above-
normal PWATs and increasingly oppressive heat indices on Wednesday
and Thursday. Expect afternoon highs in the low 90s on both days
and peak heat indices in the upper 90s in the deepest valleys and
urban corridors. These warm/humid conditions will combine with
some shortwave impulses moving through the broader zonal flow to
enhance precipitation chances across the area on Wednesday and
Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible, but they are likely to
remain pulse-like in nature. Weak winds aloft and dry air in the
column will mitigate deep-layer shear and thus the potential for
highly-organized convection. This is particularly true for
southern KY, which will be closer to the center of the
southeastern ridging.

Thus, the greatest sensible weather impacts over the area next
week will likely come from the cumulative nature of the heat and
the repetitive nature of the precipitation chances. Rain chances
will peak every day in the afternoon/evening hours, and the
heaviest showers could provide some localized relief from the hot
apparent temperatures. However, overnight lows near 70 degrees
will provide limited nocturnal relief. The NWS HeatRisk tool has
been picking up on the potential for heat-related health impacts
across Eastern Kentucky in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.
Likewise, WPC has outlined the forecast area in Marginal (Level
1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook on both Thursday and Friday. The
potential for localized flash flooding will be highest in areas
that see multiple rounds of heavy rain multiple days in a row next
week, as soils in those places will progressively be able to
absorb less moisture.

Guidance suggests that the SE ridge may flatten late next week
and allow a weak frontal boundary to slide into the forecast area.
This could yield slightly cooler afternoon highs in the 80s, but
a lack of deep upper level support means that said front is likely
to stall out. This will keep diurnally-peaking rain chances in
the forecast for next weekend, and we will closely monitor the
potential for any potential excessive rainfall-related impacts as
the mesoscale details of the forecast become clearer by mid-week.

In short, expect an active summertime weather pattern to persist
across Eastern Kentucky this week. Confidence is high that Eastern
Kentucky will experience seasonably warm/humid conditions and
daily diurnal peaks in shower/storm chances throughout the next
week. Only minor adjustments were made to the NBM-populated long
term forecast grids, as it is capturing the general pattern well.
Confidence in the magnitude of overnight ridge-valley temperature
splits is low due to the potential for lingering clouds from
diurnal convection. Likewise, nocturnal fog may form in locations
with wet grounds beyond the typical river valleys. With that being
said, grid edits were limited to minor reductions in valley low
temperatures, minor increases in ridgetop low temperatures, and
the addition of valley fog in the weather grids.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025

Although some patchy MVFR ceilings have developed, expect these to
lift/scatter out through the first hour or two of the TAF period,
yielding VFR conditions area-wide by 14z.

Showers and storms are expected to return and persist through
much of the afternoon. Convection could bring brief decreased
categories to terminals, but coverage should remain generally ISO
to SCT in nature. Lastly, winds are forecast to be light and
variable. For now, targeted 17-23Z as the primary window for
convection with TEMPO groups possible if confidence grows through
the day.

Convective activity decreases during the evening hours with
terminals VFR through 06Z. There is a fairly robust signal for
some areas of BR/FG development tonight. Have included IFR
visibility for each of the sites past about 08z-09z, although
certainly LIFR/VLIFR visibility will be possible in dense fog. Did
not yet have enough confidence to warrant inclusion of LIFR or
lower conditions in the fcst.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...ILN
LONG TERM...MARCUS/ILN
AVIATION...ILN