862
FXUS63 KJKL 122002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
402 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather will continue through tonight as a front
  remains stalled in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times this afternoon into
  the evening, which could lead to isolated to scattered flash
  flooding.

- Temperatures will increase to well above normal, or even near
  record, levels by the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows the wavy front now lifting north through
southeast Kentucky. This boundary is rather quiet at the moment
though storms are found off to the northwest of the JKL CWA - but
is expected to get more active later this morning. In the
meantime, under a sky with multiple layers of clouds, areas of fog
have developed and are not just confined to the valleys. However
the densest of the fog is found in the deeper locations closer to
the rivers. Currently, temperatures (and dewpoints) are fairly
uniform throughout eastern Kentucky - generally in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a local weak 5h trough working west to
east through the Ohio Valley today and tonight. At the start of
the forecast period we see another batch of mid level energy over
western Kentucky this morning. This will work east through the
day in tandem with the lower heights of the weak 5h trough. The
core of the trough will pass through our area later tonight so
that its lower heights and bits of energy will be around during
the bulk of our daytime heating cycle helping to support
convection when combined with the anticipated instability peak
this afternoon. By the middle of the night, 5h heights will begin
rising over the area in response to strong ridging from the
Desert Southwest working back northeast to the Southern Plains and
extending its influence into the Tennessee Valley by Sunday
night. Considering the small model spread, mainly unadjusted NBM
data were used for the forecast grids this morning. With the high
dewpoint air in place again there was little opportunity to
improve temperatures or dewpoints through the weekend. As for
PoPs, included radar details in the near term along with the
latest CAMs guidance to enhance the NBM PoPs through tonight.

Sensible weather will feature another likely wet and stormy day
with the nearby front, passing upper support, instability for the
afternoon, and persistent PWS near climatological maximums in the
1.8 to 2.0+ inch range through this evening. The shower and storm
chances will start to wind down later tonight - mainly reduced to
just showers as the daytime instability wanes. Look for areas of
fog to develop again tonight between the bouts of pcpn. Sunday
will be mostly dry in the wake of the departing sfc low, though a
stray shower cannot be ruled out. WPC has continued the northeast
portion of the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall but
have us un-highlighted for the rest of the period. Accordingly,
we do have a Flood Watch kicking in at noon today for our
northeast counties where the rainfall has been a bit more abundant
these past few days. Any training could result in isolated
flooding in this area through the first part of the night.
Elsewhere, localized flooding will also be possible but the ground
there is a bit less primed.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were for PoPs -
adjusting them for near term radar trends and then through tonight
via the inclusion of guidance from the latest CAMs. Temperatures
and dewpoints were not adjusted much considering the high
moisture content in the air.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

To open the extended period, prominent features at 500 mb include a
trough over the Northeast, a ridge extending from the Upper Midwest
down through the Mississippi Valley, while a second trough is modeled
over the Northern Rockies. The upper pattern remains fairly
progressive, with the ridge moving east over the Southeast US and Ohio
Valley by Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday. Thursday through
Saturday, the second trough modeled over the Northern Rockies by
Monday will slowly break the upper ridge down, ushering in cooler
weather for Friday and Saturday.

For sensible weather, the new work week starts with a surface cold
front having just passed southeast of the area. Some lingering
isolated showers remain possible early along the Virginia-Kentucky
border. Some residual river valley fog should mix out by mid-morning.
Temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s
from north to south. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected early,
becoming fair in the afternoon and evening. With skies clearing out
Monday night and high pressure building in, temperatures cool into the
low to mid 50s in the valleys, with upper 50s to low 60s along ridge
tops. River valley fog is expected to develop again Monday night
before mixing out Tuesday morning.

With the ridge shifting into the Southeast, high pressure builds into
the region, leading to temperatures warming into the upper 80s to low
90s through Thursday. Shortwave energy associated with the second
trough brings shower and storm chances back to the CWA Thursday
through Saturday. A cold front looks to progress into the forecast
area from the Ohio Valley before stalling out Saturday. Agreement
among model and ensemble guidance does widen heading towards the end
of the week. With troughing energy seemingly breaking down the ridge
heading into the weekend, high temperatures lax some, ranging from
the mid 80s to upper 80s north to south on Friday, and low 80s to
mid 80s north to south on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

Widely varying conditions were in place across eastern Kentucky at
TAF issuance time with IFR or worse in ongoing convection while
generally MVFR to VFR conditions were noted elsewhere. Look for
ongoing convection to gradually wind down this evening, but that
will probably just allow for areas of fog and low stratus to
develop overnight. Winds will be south to southwest around 5 knots
or less today becoming light and variable tonight. However,
briefly strong and erratic winds will be possible within/near
storms through the evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-052-104-106-107-109-
110-119-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON