197
FXUS63 KJKL 040545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist into early
  next week.

- Trough the weekend, valley fog is likely to develop each night.

- Chances for rain return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1135 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025

Forecast is on track. Only change was to incorporate latest
observations to bring hourly forecast in line with current T/Td
trends.

UPDATE Issued at 820 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025

Forecast is on track through the overnight. Temperatures are
quickly falling through the 70s and into the 60s. Anticipate
valley fog formation overnight and that could be locally dense in
some of the mainstem river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025

This afternoon through Tonight:

Guidance remains consistent for the short-term. High pressure
will dominate from the north and east, extending into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Aloft, a 500mb ridge will shift eastward but
maintain control. Expect isolated high thin cirrus and perhaps a
few cumulus clouds this afternoon. These will clear tonight as
daytime heating diminishes, leading to ridge/valley temperature
splits, with upper 40s to lower 50s in valleys and mid to upper
50s on ridges. Valley fog is also possible overnight. The lower
valley temperatures are being captured well by the COOP MOS
guidance and closer to the 5th percentile of the NBM.

Saturday:

Surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will continue to
influence the weather across the Ohio valley. Once again the
short-term guidance and forecast soundings indicate the potential
for a few cirrus or shallow cumulus clouds at most given the dry
air in place. It will be another warm day with mostly sunny skies
and light surface winds. Highs are expected to reach the lower 80s
for most locations, with some maybe slightly warmer (a couple of
degrees) than today base on the ensembles and deterministic
guidance.

Saturday Night:

Afternoon clouds will dissipate, resulting in mostly clear skies,
with the exception of a few high clouds in the far southeastern
portions of the area. Overnight lows will exhibit a persistent
pattern of ridge/valley splits, with temperatures ranging from the
upper 40s to lower 50s in valleys and mid to upper 50s on ridges.
One again valley fog is also possible. Once again, the lower
valley temperatures are being captured well by the COOP MOS
guidance and closer to the 5th percentile of the NBM.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025

Mid-level high aloft will remain just east of the area Sunday
through Monday, but the area will gradually come under the influence
of increasingly southwesterly flow aloft by Monday as a weather
system approaches.

Models differ in their interpretation of this approaching system for
Tuesday into Wednesday, with the ECMWF depicting a less amplified
and more progressive shortwave, while the GFS depicts a more
amplified and slightly less progressive shortwave. Either way,
sufficient moisture will exist for most if not all areas to see
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but the ECMWF solution
generally favors a bit lesser rainfall than the GFS solution.
Overall NBM QPF has trended lower, closer to a range of two-tenths
to one-half inch, with this forecast package.

The cold front associated with this passing system crosses the area
Wednesday, lowering temperatures for both highs and lows by about 8
to 10 degrees. However, there are significant discrepancies between
the GEFS, GEPS, and EC ensembles with regards to placement and
strength of shortwaves past Wednesday, making the forecast a little
more uncertain with regards to temperatures for the end of the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will keep the TAF
sites VFR through the bulk of the period. Fog has developed again
this in the valleys with localized IFR or worse restrictions
likely. The fog appears increasingly favored to affect SME and SYM
toward morning with a good chance at LOZ as well, warranting
mention in the TAF. JKL and SJS are less likely to experience fog,
so any mention was left out on the 06Z issuance, but a few wisps
of fog cannot be entirely ruled out there either, especially
around sunrise. Winds will remain light generally less than 5
knots at most sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF