194
FXUS63 KJKL 311739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
139 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and dry weather is expected to continue through the
  Labor Day weekend, with only a small chance of showers or a
  thunderstorms over southeastern counties today and Monday.

- Scattered showers are possible Tuesday, with higher rain
  chances following for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an
  approaching cold front.

- Rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to remain under an
  inch for most locations.

- Below normal temperatures are expected on average through the
  period, with the coolest conditions mid to late next week behind
  the relatively strong cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025

Forecast has been well on track this morning. Made a couple of
small updates to make sure the near term forecast is on track with
the current observations. Ultimately this resulted in only minor
changes. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
Also went ahead and sent out a new forecast package to remove any
morning fog wording.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025

A surface high-pressure system is centered over the northern Plains
and Great Lakes. This high-pressure dome is providing much of the
northern CONUS with mostly clear skies and dry weather. Locally,
similar conditions are in place. The clear skies have also allowed
for river valley fog to develop, which could be locally dense in
some locations.

Throughout the rest of the day, the surface high-pressure system
will remain, leading to mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures,
with highs forecast to climb into the low to mid-80s. However, a
positively tilted upper-level trough is oriented northeast to
southwest through the heart of the CWA, and this trough will assist
in CI this afternoon. Areas in far eastern and southeastern Kentucky
have the best chances for showers and storms (10% to 30%). These
showers and storms will taper off toward sunset. Clearing skies are
expected overnight, leading to the potential for locally dense river
valley fog.

Monday will bring another day of mostly dry weather under the
influence of the surface high-pressure system. However, the upper-
level trough has pivoted to become negatively tilted, with a closed
upper-level circulation developing overhead. This trough will allow
for shower and thunderstorm chances (10% to 30%) for portions of
southern Kentucky Monday afternoon and evening. Again, clearing
skies are expected for the end of the period.

The period will be highlighted by slight increases in shower and
storm chances this afternoon and again on Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain pleasant, with highs climbing into the low
to mid-80s and overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025

The start of the long-term period brings the continued presence of
the upper-level trough. The forecast area will be situated at the
base of this longwave trough, with increasing PoP of 20% to 50%
expected area-wide Tuesday afternoon. While the area is being
impacted by a stagnant longwave trough, a stronger, more potent
trough is forecast to develop over central Canada Tuesday afternoon
and will then dig southeastward toward the Commonwealth overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday. At the surface, a surface low will track
from Canada into the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front
expected to cross through the CWA late Wednesday into early Thursday
morning.

The vertically stacked upper-level feature will remain over the
Great Lakes, and by Friday morning, another jet streak will move
through the flow, bringing another cold front through the Great
Lakes into the Commonwealth for Friday afternoon into early Saturday
morning. Behind the exiting front, a surface high-pressure system
will build into the region, bringing a return to seasonally
appropriate temperatures.

The period will be marked by multiple upper-level perturbations that
will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity from Tuesday
afternoon through early Saturday morning. Several fronts will move
through the region, the first being late Wednesday night and again
late Friday night. Temperatures will remain nearly seasonal, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to
mid-50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all TAF sites and
expected to prevail through much of the period. A bit more mixing
today compared to yesterday is leading to some gusts between 10
and 15 knots, but these should quickly dissipate by the evening.
Fog has been decreasing a bit each night over the last few nights
as drier air remains in place and strongest subsidence is now
northeast of the state. That being said, still expect fog in the
deepest valleys, but only going scattered with no impacts to the
TAF sites. Some clouds may begin to work their way into the TAF
sites during the first half of the day Monday, generally VFR.
However, can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm during
the afternoon just past the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST