820
FXUS63 KJKL 141757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
157 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather will continue through the first half of next
  week, with showers and thunderstorms expected on most days.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the
  weekend with strong to damaging wind gusts the main concern.

- Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring a low-
  end threat of excessive rainfall and resulting isolated
  instances of high water or flash flooding through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are developing and increasing in
coverage early this afternoon across eastern and especially
central Kentucky. Activity over central Kentucky is expected to
coalesce into one or more semi-organized lines or clusters as it
presses eastward. The most widespread convection is likely to
occur between 2 and 4 PM EDT for locations west of I-75, between 3
and 6 PM EDT for locations east of I-75 and west of US-23 and
between 5 PM to 8 PM EDT for locations east of US-23. The primary
concerns with stronger thunderstorms will be heavy downpours
leading to isolated excessive rainfall and strong wind gusts to
around 40 mph.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025

Forecast was updated to remove mention of valley fog for the
remainder of daytime forecast period.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a tweaking of the near term PoPs per current radar.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows low pressure moving into southern Illinois
early this morning. This is supporting a mild and moist
environment through Kentucky out ahead of the low and under mostly
cloudy skies. In addition, showers and thunderstorms lasted well
into the evening on Friday but have since shifted off to the east
of the state and dissipated leaving eastern Kentucky mostly dry
- just as new development is taking place to the west of the
forecast area. Damp ground conditions and some thinness or holes
in the mainly high clouds have also led to areas of fog early this
morning, primarily in the valleys. Currently, temperatures and
dewpoints are fairly uniform in the mid to upper 60s, amid light
winds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a small, weakening, and filling 5h trough working
slowly east into and though Kentucky today and tonight. This
feature passes through the JKl CWA with some energy at mid-levels
this afternoon. A looser pattern aloft remains behind on Sunday
with heights just on the high side of the mean for this time of
year - just northwest of an area of ridging over Florida. The
fairly small model spread through Sunday evening supported using
the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly to add in some timing details from the
latest CAMs for the PoPs and Wx grids through the bulk of the
weekend.

Sensible weather features another damp weekend replete with
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms around. On both
days the convection will peak in the late afternoon due to a
strong diurnal component for magnitude and areal coverage. While
not as favorable as yesterday, forecast soundings of tall skinny
CAPE suggest that we could still see a couple of strong storms
with gusty winds and brief heavy rain the main concerns. Training
of cells could also lead to localized flooding through the weekend
but widespread high water issues are not expected. At night,
conditions will be mild and fairly uniform with a minimum in
convective activity expected, but also a decent potential for
areas of fog toward midnight lasting through dawn - favoring the
valleys and depending on where the concentrated areas of rain fell
during the day.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjustments to the PoPs per the latest CAMs guidance for timing
and magnitude through Sunday evening. As for temperatures - did
not deviate far from the NBM guidance through the period given the
high moisture content.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 540 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025

The main adjustments to the extended where to add in some terrain
detail to the NBM temperatures each night after Thursday. Did also
keep a threat of showers and thunderstorms around into Saturday
afternoon with some uncertainty to the ability of a late week
front to clear the area.

The previous long term discussion follows...

The period will start with the main prevailing westerlies aloft in
rather zonal flow across the Great Lakes and New England, with
general troughiness in weaker flow extending southward over much of
the remainder of the eastern CONUS. A nearly stationary surface
frontal boundary is forecast to be laid out just to our north near
the Ohio River, with a warm and humid air mass in place on the south
side over our area. Although models will often have a difficult time
handling weak embedded features very far in advance, they are at
least suggesting that a minor shortwave trough (left over from the
upper low currently over MO) will be over KY on Sunday, continuing
to weaken and shift eastward. Considering all the aforementioned
factors, showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday,
especially during and just after peak heating. Flow aloft is
expected to be weak (mostly 15 kts or less below 500 mb) and
precipitable water rather high at 1.5-2", which would support
localized heavy rainfall in slow moving thunderstorms. Activity
should largely diminish during the night with loss of instability
and little advection.

Sunday`s shortwave should be departing to the east on Monday,
potentially leaving weak ridging aloft to be passing over during the
day. The frontal boundary is also expected to weaken (on its way to
dissolving). These factors would lessen the coverage of convective
precip. However, no change in air mass will occur and diurnal
destabilization should still result in showers/thunderstorms popping
up, with an overall diminishing trend with loss of instability
Monday evening.

After this point, model details become sketchier. The general idea
in both the GFS and ECMWF is for another weak upper trough to
approach and pass over the area with an uptick in precip on Tuesday.
Once this second wave departs to the east, models show little in the
way of features for Wednesday. This gives another day of lessened
precip coverage similar to Monday.

While all of this is going on, a somewhat more significant upper
trough embedded in faster flow will move onshore on the west coast
on Monday and make its way east across the CONUS. It is forecast to
approach and move through our area on Thursday and maybe into
Thursday night. It`s size and strength should support a cold front
to move through our area during that time. The front and upper
support bring another heightened POP. Somewhat drier air behind the
front and the eastward departure of the upper trough would result in
little or no precip on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025

Hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms at TAF issuance time will
transition to more widespread activity into this evening as semi-
organized clusters/lines of storms move from southwest to
northeast. The anticipated period of most persistent convection is
noted in the TAFs under TEMPO groups. Expect mainly high MVFR to
low VFR conditions, except under showers/thunderstorms where
visibilities may be briefly much lower. Winds could be gusty and
erratic near any thunderstorms. Rain chances fade after sunset,
though a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out overnight. If
clouds break, fog formation is probable as well, potentially
impacting airport terminals. Winds, away from any storms will be
southwesterly at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon/evening --
diminishing after dark.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL/GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON