889
FXUS63 KJKL 202301
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
601 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of rain showers continue through Saturday morning as a
  series of fronts move through the region.

- Locally heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms are possible on
  Friday and Friday night.

- Active weather continues into next week, with a strong cold
  front expected to cross the Commonwealth by mid-week.

- Below normal temperatures are likely for the end of November and
  the start of December, although the precipitation forecast
  remains uncertain that far out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 425 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Late this afternoon an upper level low was centered south of James
Bay with an associated shortwave trough across Lake Huron to west of
Lake Michigan while a shortwave was progressing into the Lower OH
Valley and TN Valley. That shortwave was in advance of an upper
level low in NM and an associated trough axis into the Rio Grande
Valley vicinity and a broader trough in the western Conus.
Another upper level low was nearing the CA and OR coast at this
time. At the surface, a frontal zone extended from South Carolina
across the Southern Appalachians into the TN Valley and then
meanders to a sfc low developing in western parts of TX. Meanwhile
another cold front extended into the western Great Lakes to
Central Plains from a sfc low centered south of Hudson Bay.
Isentropic lift across the boundary to the south of eastern KY has
resulted into a return of mid and high clouds after low clouds
finally dissipated. An area of rain/showers was falling from this
across much of southern to eastern KY at this time. There had been
some lighting at times earlier in the day in TN, but recent
lighting activity has been south of KY.

This evening and tonight, the upper low in Canada should meander
south of Hudson Bay and near the James Bay vicinity while the
trialing shortwave trough axis moves into the eastern Great Lakes
to Upper OH Valley. A couple of shortwave in southwest flow may
also cross the Commonwealth tonight downstream of the initial
upper low that track into the eastern CO/western KS vicinity while
the associated shortwave axis reaches south across eastern OK to
TX. As this occurs, the southerly to southwest flow aloft will
continue to transport moisture into the OH Valley region as the
sfc low in the Plains tracks into KS and the warm front to the
east lifts north into the Commonwealth and may reach as far north
as the Mtn Parkway vicinity to Tug Fork by dawn on Friday. Rounds
of showers are anticipated this evening and tonight near and
ahead of the warm front. Temperatures should not fall that far
from current readings for lows tonight.

Friday and Friday night, the upper level low should trek to the
mid MS Valley vicinity Friday to Friday evening and then further
weaken to an open wave as it moves to the OH Valley region on
Friday night. An additional shortwave or two should cross the area
with the general consensus of guidance for one of those crossing
eastern KY near midday on Friday. In between this shortwave and
the main shortwave trough to near later Friday and Friday night a
relative min in rain chances is anticipated Friday afternoon,
particularly in the more southern locations. As the sfc low
approaches the mid MS and Lower OH Valley Friday to Friday evening
the warm front is expected to lift at least to near the OH River
initially. The combination of the northern stream boundary more
or less merging with that frontal zone and the initial frontal
zone should return south back into eastern KY during Friday
night. Another uptick in coverage of convection is expected as
the evening into overnight hours progress ahead of the front. Some
thunder will be possible on Friday, though chances may diminish
for a time in the afternoon to early evening in the more southern
locations. With PW forecast to reach the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range or
near or north of the 90th percentile and the frontal zone should
be nearly parallel to the upper flow. Thus, although any showers
and storms should move rather quickly, a few locations might
receive repeated rounds of heavier downpours and locally heavy
rain. WPC has a Marginal Risk for Friday into Friday night for
this threat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

The long term forecast period opens with the passage of a cold
front, although forecast guidance has trended slightly slower with
its progression into Eastern Kentucky relative to this time
yesterday. The slower FROPA will allow for widespread pre-frontal
rain showers, and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms, to continue
into Saturday morning, and PoPs increased in the latest run of the
NBM in response. Rain chances are then forecast to taper off from NW
to SE on Saturday afternoon as surface flow shift from a westerly to
northerly orientation. Showers could linger for longer on the NW-
facing slopes of SE KY, especially near the VA state line, but skies
should clear for most of the forecast area by Saturday evening as a
drier and cooler airmass advects in. Expect a muted diurnal
temperature curve and a NW-SE temperature gradient as a result, with
highs in the 50s north of the Mountain Parkway, and in the lower 60s
further south. Temperatures will quickly drop off after dark, but
remain above freezing all night (forecast lows are in the mid to
upper 30s), setting the stage for patchy fog development overnight
into Sunday morning. Antecedent wetness could allow said fog to
expand beyond the conventional river valleys, but the fog should
quickly burn off on Sunday morning under sunnier skies.

As the mid/upper level trough responsible for the previous few days`
active weather propagates east, ridging builds into the Ohio River
Valley. At the surface, this translates to a broad surface high
passing through the region. Aloft, it allows (relatively weaker)
northwesterly flow to continue on Sunday before backing towards the
west on Monday. These synoptics, paired with midlevel height rises,
point towards drier weather and moderating temperatures early next
week. Expect a seasonably pleasant day on Sunday, with highs in the
upper 50s/lower 60s under mostly sunny skies. Modest ridge/valley
temperature splits are possible on Sunday night, with cooler valleys
in the upper 30s and ridgetops near/just above 40. Monday looks
slightly warmer; the continued eastward synoptic progression will
veer winds throughout the column towards a more southerly
orientation. This favors highs near/above 60 area-wide, but also
increasing cloud cover on Monday evening out ahead of a mid-week
storm system.

Rain chances increase on Monday night as the flow aloft turns
southwesterly in response to an approaching shortwave trough. That
trough, and its associated surface low/cold front combo will move
through the region on Tuesday, albeit with notable deamplification.
Despite the seasonably mild temperatures (AM lows in the upper 40s
and PM highs in the low/mid 60s), forecast instability looks meager.
The currently-available model soundings are unimpressive, and most
of the pre-frontal activity will come in the form of generic rain
showers. A tightening pressure gradient could allow for some breezy
winds on Tuesday afternoon, but widespread hazardous weather appears
unlikely.

A deeper midlevel trough is forecast to dig into the Upper Midwest
on Wednesday and then close off into a vertically-stacked low
pressure system. The related, and likely occluded, surface low will
then move over the Northern Great Lakes, dragging a secondary cold
front into the Ohio River Valley. Guidance depicts different
dynamics aloft and different amounts of moisture in the column ahead
of this secondary front, which leads to decreasing precipitation
forecast confidence towards the end of the period. In this forecast
package, the baseline NBM guidance for light rain chances continuing
into Wednesday were retained. As temperatures drop off behind this
secondary front on Wednesday night, the blend tried to bring in
freezing rain. This is not a favorable meteorological set-up for
ice, and the grids were accordingly changed to a plain, cool rain.

Thanksgiving Day looks to be drier behind the secondary frontal
passage, marking the beginning of a cooler pattern for the holiday
weekend. The CPC`s extended-range outlook hints at a colder and
potentially wintery pattern for the end of November and the start of
December, but it is far too early to provide specific forecast
details. Interests are accordingly encouraged not to read too far
into any one model run`s winter precipitation output at this moment
in time, as deterministic forecast guidance will remain bouncy for
quite some time at this extended temporal range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Low clouds mixed either to higher cloud bases or mixed out
entirely north to near the Mtn Pkwy at issuance time. Thus, much
of the southern locations were either VFR or MVFR with IFR
lingering near KSYM and I-64 corridor. Mid and high clouds ahead
of the next low pressure system are already streaming toward and
into the region, but VFR should hold to begin the TAF period in
the south and for northern sections such as KSYM a gradual
improvement to MVFR and then VFR is anticipated. However,
deteriorating conditions with thickening and lowering clouds and
showers will spread into the area from the southwest and west to
the east and northeast with MVFR likely to return to KEKQ by 00Z
and then over the remainder of the area through 08Z. Showers along
with isolated storms and deteriorating conditions are forecast to
arrive again from the west by the end of the period. Mainly MVFR
or IFR should remain once it develops to end the period, although
some breaks may occur near the TN border behind a warm front late
in the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP