186
FXUS63 KJKL 021808 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
108 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty light precipitation will wind down in the southeastern
  counties through by early to mid afternoon.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the
  week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder
  than normal.

- The pattern will turn active again towards the weekend with
  additional chances of precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

The steadier band of precipitation has departed to the north and
east with lingering flurries and likely some drizzle or spotty
freezing drizzle mixed in for the southeast as cloud top temps
are only marginal for a prevalence of ice crystals. Areas of
stronger radar returns/convectively elements would be most likely
to be flurries with this corresponding to some recent KY Mesonet
webcam imagery. Any freezing drizzle would be above 1500 feet and
probably more on the order of 2000 feet elevation per recent
observation trends. This light precipitation should end by early
to mid afternoon as drier air advects in.

UPDATE Issued at 801 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

Weather is progressing pretty much on track with the forecast,
with the back edge of significant precip making its way southeast
through the area. Have updated temperatures based on latest obs
and trends, and made any necessary adjustments (which were very
few) to freezing drizzle potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 534 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

Winter weather event is ongoing. An upper level trough extends
from the Great Lakes to the souther plains early this morning,
with an embedded shortwave over the lower Ohio Valley, while
surface low pressure near the FL panhandle is transitioning to
development near the Carolinas coast. Overrunning moisture from
the south along with lift from the trough/shortwave is responsible
for the ongoing precipitation. Brightbanding is observed on radar
early this morning over the northern portion of the forecast area
indicating the change from rain to snow. The switch will continue
to make its way southeast as colder air arrives, especially aloft.
However, outside of our northern/northwestern counties the period
of any snow should be brief enough to not be a concern. Areas
around I-64 northward will likely see an inch or two, with amounts
tapering off to the southeast. The most significant precipitation
is expected to taper off from northwest to southeast this morning.
As deeper moisture aloft is lost, ice production in the clouds may
also be lost, which could result in a change to drizzle (or
freezing drizzle where temps remain below freezing). Even drizzle
will eventually taper off as moisture becomes more and more
shallow, with the last of it tapering off in southeast KY in the
afternoon or early evening.

High pressure will build in from the west tonight, but cold air
advection and upslope flow will persist as the high approaches
and will make it difficult for clouds to break up. Tentatively
have decreasing clouds forecast tonight into Wednesday, but
confidence in the timing is not very high.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 521 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

At the onset of the long-term period, a 590-dm sub-tropical high
resides over the Gulf, centered over Cuba. A sub-500-dm low
remains over the Hudson Bay area, with a trailing cold front down
through Southeast Canada, The Great Lakes, and back through the
Ohio Valley. All-while a ridge of high pressure dominates the
Pacific, from Hawaii all the way up to the Yukon region. Models
and ensembles are in good agreement through Friday.

Wednesday night, increasing clouds can be expected across Eastern
Kentucky as the cold front from the Hudson Bay low traverses the
Ohio Valley with a slight chance of snow showers just north of
Fleming County. Temperatures overnight are expected to fall into the
low to mid 20s in hollows and sheltered valleys, while ridgetops
remain in the upper 20s to near 30. While this cold front passes to
the north, moisture gets pulled around the Gulf high into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Frontogenesis is expected later
Thursday. Current models put a slug of rain across the Southeast
U.S. while Eastern Kentucky remains rather unscathed. There is a
period Thursday night where a slight chance of snow showers exists
with no major impacts expected.

Friday and beyond, model and ensemble spread increases considerably
with disagreement in timing and placement of systems. The ECMWF
lags the showers across the Southeast U.S. until Friday, and also
has showers further north across Eastern Kentucky. As a result
POPs fluctuate between 15-35% Friday through Monday next week. Of
those days, Saturday looks to have the best chance of being dry,
at least at current.

Below-normal temperatures look to continue through the week, with
highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with lows in the 20s to
low 30s. Thursday night looks to be the coldest of the long-term
with lows ranging from the mid-teens across the north, to mid 20s
across the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

A mixture of IFR and MVFR was reported at issuance with upslope
flow between a departing area of low pressure and high pressure
gradually building in from the central Conus. Spotty light
precipitation likely a mixture of snow, drizzle, and perhaps
spotty freezing drizzle lingers south of the TAF sites. That
precipitation should end over the first 2 to 5 hours of the
period, but low level moisture will linger for much of the period
and if and or when any clearing does take place, fog with some IFR
reductions may develop. In addition, as the night progresses,
some stratus build down fog with IFR or lower vis is also
possible for KJKL, KSJS, KSME, and KLOZ. Otherwise, mainly a
mixture of MVFR and IFR ceilings are anticipated areawide through
about 09Z, before high pressure building in leads to some
scattering of low clouds from that point through the end of the
period.

Winds will average northwest at 5 to 10KT to begin the period an
then become light and variable after 23Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP