840
FXUS63 KJKL 070545
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1245 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow accumulations are possible behind a cold frontal
  passage on Sunday Night/Monday Morning.

- Southwesterly winds will become gusty on Tuesday and Wednesday
  ahead of a stronger mid-week system.

- The pattern remains active next week, although confidence
  remains low in each passing system`s precipitation type forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

Some valley locations especially in the Cumberland Valley were
running near if not a bit below the previously forecast low
temperatures. Also some fog with reductions down to 4 miles
visibility was reported at ASOS or AWOS sites in that area. Hourly
grids have been updated for temperature trends and associated min
T along with adding in some patchy fog for valley locations
through the overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 710 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

Low and mid level clouds have scattered out as far north as
southwestern Pike County to Knott County to Clay to Rockcastle
County. Hourly grids, mainly sky, temperatures, and dewpoints
were adjusted based on recent trends. There remains some
uncertainty as to how far north the low and mid level clouds
scatter out and for now kept overnight lows the same, with the
colder than NBM adjustments for deeper valleys in tact. Confidence
in ridge/valley split and is highest at present in these more
southern counties, but trends will be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts a surface high-pressure center
over the Mid-South, which is currently dominating the weather
pattern across much of the eastern CONUS . To the northwest, a cold
front is tracking southeastward, moving through the Great Lakes and
into the Ohio Valley. Locally in eastern Kentucky, breaks in the
stratus cloud deck are allowing for intermittent periods of sunshine
for the first time in what seems like several days; however, an
expansive stratus deck is building eastward from central Kentucky
and is slowly advancing into the eastern part of the state.

For the remainder of the day and into the early overnight hours, the
influence of the surface high-pressure system will persist. The
approaching cold front is not expected to significantly advance much
closer to the forecast area than its current position, but the
region immediately ahead of it will become an area of enhanced
baroclinicity as a larger synoptic system approaches from the west.
Notwithstanding this, the daytime will feature partly cloudy skies
with periods of sunshine. Maximum temperatures are forecast to range
from the upper 30s in the Bluegrass region to the mid-40s
southeastward toward the VA/KY/TN state lines. The overnight
temperature forecast presents a challenge due to uncertainty in the
low-level cloud cover. Forecast guidance suggests the southeastern
portion of the CWA will experience clear skies tonight, while the
Bluegrass and areas northwest of the escarpment will remain under
low-level clouds. The location of this clearing line will
significantly impact minimum temperatures, leading to a noticeable
ridge-valley temperature split across the southeast and
comparatively warmer minimums in the Bluegrass due to the insulating
effect of the cloud layer.

Concurrently, to the northwest, a surface low-pressure system
(currently tracking through northern Nebraska) is forecast to move
eastward along the aforementioned cold front. This feature is
expected to track into the Ohio Valley through the overnight period
and is the source of the low clouds expected over the Bluegrass
tonight. This system, which exhibits characteristics of a clipper-
type low-pressure system, is then forecast to lift northeastward
toward the Adirondacks. This progression will drag the surface cold
front toward the forecast area, resulting in increasing PoP
beginning Sunday afternoon and persisting into the first half of the
next work week. Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures will be
sufficiently warm to support liquid precipitation, with Sundays high
temperatures expected to climb into the mid-40s to lower 50s.
However, as CAA begins to take hold behind the departing system, a
transition from rain to snow is anticipated to occur through Monday
morning.

The forecast period begins with another day of dry conditions
featuring partly sunny skies and cloud breaks, followed by the quick-
moving clipper system that will introduce rain first, which is then
expected to transition to snow Sunday night into Monday morning as
the colder air arrives.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

To start the new work-week, Monday will start off with snow
showers, expected to taper off through afternoon. The region
will be under light northerly flow through the day, with
occasional northwest flow. While northwesterly flow is most
favorable for upslope snows, the more northerly winds should
limit orographically enhanced snows. That said, a couple tenths
of snow is currently expected along and south of the Mountain
Parkway, with highest totals possible across the far southeastern
most counties. Temperatures Monday will generally remain in the
30s, with regional ranges from the low 30s across NE Kentucky, to
upper 30s across the south. A trough axis will pass through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the day leading to clearing
skies and variable winds Monday evening. Temperatures overnight
are likely to drop into the teens and low 20s for sheltered
valleys, and mid 20s for ridge-tops.

Tuesday, Eastern Kentucky looks to be under zonal flow, with quiet
weather across the area. Temperatures are expected to rebound into
the lower 40s across the north and upper 40s, approaching 50 across
the south. Overnight, temperatures benefit from increasing cloud
cover ahead of the next approaching system, dropping into the mid to
upper 30s. Speaking of the next system, models and ensembles are in
agreement on a trough approaching the area Tuesday overnight out of
the northwest.

By day-break Wednesday, They`ll be a slight chance of showers. Rain
shower chances slowly spread south across the day and increase in
coverage as this trough deepens and progresses across the area. A
tightening pressure gradient with this system will lead to breezy to
gusty winds during the day. At current, the 00Z data of the ENS, a
member of the LREF ensemble, suggests that there is a 25-40% chance
of wind gusts reaching wind advisory criteria (40-57 mph for any
duration). This is the third run of the LREF showing the gusty wind
potential, with each runs probabilities increasing. Given the time
of year it should be mentioned that winds of this magnitude are
likely to blow any unsecured holiday decorations. With strong
southwesterly winds through the day temperatures could rise into the
upper 40s to lower 50s before dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s
at night.

Active weather looks to continue Thursday and beyond, with a series
of systems approaching the Greater Ohio River Valley one after
another. Periods of rain and snow are likely to  accompany  these
systems however the uncertainty int track, timing, and evolution in
each make it increasingly challenging and subject to change with new
data. There is however a bigger overall signal of cooler weather
towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025

Low clouds linger north of of I-64 at TAF issuance while patchy
fog is developing under high clouds further south. Additional
erosion of the low clouds is expected over the north, leaving
just mid and high clouds over the area for remainder of the
overnight. Patchy fog may lead to MVFR visibility reductions at
some valley terminals, including SME, and even outside valleys
(most likely SYM and LOZ) through sunrise. Improvement to VFR can
be expected area-wide after sunrise but will gradually give way to
lowering ceilings late in the afternoon and evening as an
approaching front brings increasing rain chances. Light and
variable winds should prevail through 14Z, with winds becoming
southwest to west at less than 10KT thereafter.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON