961
FXUS63 KJKL 240949
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
449 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues through this afternoon.

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  between tonight and Wednesday morning, leading to widespread
  rain chances on Tuesday.

- Isolated severe storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon for
  areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will settle into the region for the
  beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 447 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

In the most recent surface analysis, surface high-pressure is
centered over the Ohio Valley, its influence is extending across
much of the eastern CONUS. To the northwest and southwest, two
distinct disturbances are noted: one is tracking across southern
Canada and the other is centered over the Texas Panhandle. Locally,
the region remains under the influence of this surface high-pressure
ridge, which has primarily favored clear skies. The combination of
clear skies and lingering low-level moisture from preceding rainfall
has facilitated the development of dense fog, necessitating the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory.

Forecast upper-level flow shows a trough pivoting eastward off the
U.S. East Coast toward the Gulf of Maine. Concurrently, to the
southwest, upper-level ridging and associated height rises have
progressed northward into the Tennessee Valley. Consequently, at the
surface, high pressure will dominate the area today, but the ridge
axis will shift overhead and move eastward. As this translocation
occurs, southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upstream
shortwave trough will advect into the region, initiating WAA today.
This trough, currently situated over the western High Plains, is
forecast to eject rapidly east throughout the day, drawing the Texas
Panhandle surface low closer to the CWA. By this evening, showers
associated with a developing warm front are expected to increase in

coverage and persist through the overnight hours.
Post-warm-frontal showers will continue through the overnight Monday
and persist throughout the day Tuesday, with showers and
thunderstorms anticipated areawide. Some of the thunderstorms on
Tuesday afternoon could approach the threshold for severe potential.
Forecast soundings for Tuesday afternoon, preceding a weak cold
front, suggest an elevated severe storm potential. Forecast
instability indices show a couple of hundred Joules of elevated
CAPE, adequate shear and ESRH, and a veering vertical wind profile.
However, mid-level lapse rates are characterized as marginal.
Nonetheless, the potential exists for a strong to severe storm, with
the possibility of storms exhibiting rotation. Based on these
factors, and in collaboration with the SPC, the Day 2 Marginal Risk
was extended northward into the area for Tuesday afternoon. A 2%
tornado risk and a 5% damaging wind risk are in effect along and
south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. While these threats are subject to
minor northward or southward adjustments, the current trend
indicates these locations have the highest probability of
experiencing severe storms. A weak cold frontal passage is forecast
for the conclusion of the short-term forecast window.

The period will be characterized by surface high pressure today,
followed by the approach of an occluding surface low from later
tonight through the end of the period. Showers and the potential for
strong to severe storms are present on Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 50s in the north
to the mid-60s across the south today. Overnight low temperatures
will be mild, ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s, and daytime
highs will rebound into the low to upper 60s for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 447 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

The long-term forecast period commences with the approach of a
second upper-level trough. The trough responsible for Tuesdays
surface low will be absorbed into the mean flow, but simultaneously,
a stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of the northern
Rockies into the Upper Midwest. This second system is projected to
track through the Great Lakes and usher another cold front through
the area throughout the day Wednesday before quickly exiting late
Wednesday night.

Following the exiting front on Wednesday night, a surface high-
pressure system is forecast to build into the region and remain in
place from Thanksgiving through late Saturday night. While surface
high pressure prevails, the upper-level flow will persist out of the
northwest, promoting the advection of colder air for Thanksgiving
and Black Friday.

Long-term deterministic models and a significant portion of their
individual ensembles suggest an active conclusion to the long-term
period. While discrepancies exist among model runs, the consensus
trend is a shortwave perturbation moving out of the southern Plains
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This feature will bring increasing
chances of rain showers, along with the potential for a rain/snow
mix Sunday morning before temperatures warm sufficiently to support
an all-rain precipitation type.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a couple of mid-week
cold fronts, followed by high pressure building into the region on
Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant and seasonal
until Thursday, when the cold front ushers in a significantly colder
air mass for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Behind the front,
overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the 20s for the
mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before a warming trend
begins for Sunday morning. Another low-pressure system is forecast
to move into the area toward the end of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

The main concern during the period is the extent to which fog and
low stratus develop over the area tonight. Shortly before TAF
issuance, fog had become prevalent in valleys of the northern
part of the forecast area (affecting KSYM), and was beginning to
expand into valleys in the southern part of the forecast area. All
TAF sites are forecast to reach IFR or worse at least at times
overnight into early Monday. Fog then dissipates during the
morning and leaves VFR conditions to finish the period. Rain
should start to show up from the northwest over the far northern
portion of the forecast area (around KSYM) near the end of the
period, but visibility or ceiling restrictions will probably hold
off until after 06Z on Monday night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL