696
FXUS63 KJKL 121919
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
219 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A substantial warming trend will last into the weekend, with
  above normal temperatures eventually arriving.

- The next possibility of precipitation (in the form of rain) is
  not until Friday or Friday night at the earliest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025

At current, an upper level low over the Great Lakes region is
causing active weather across the Northeast, meanwhile a ridge of
high pressure dominates the Intermountain West. Locally, skies
remain mostly sunny through this afternoon as high pressure
gradually builds in from the west. Breezy southerly to westerly
winds can be expected with winds 10-15 mph gusting as high as 20-25
mph until around sunset. After sunset, winds diminish considerably,
to under 10 mph from the west. Temperatures warm into the upper 50s
to low 60s this afternoon, with the warming trend continuing through
Saturday. Some high level clouds may work into the area, but this
should occur after midnight. This should allow for prime viewing of
any Aurora-Borealis effects in the area. Temperatures this evening
are expected to range from the lower 30s in the valleys to the upper
30s along ridge tops.

Thursday, 500-dm height rises continue as the Intermountain West
ridge slowly progresses eastward. Temperatures will continue to be
in the upper 50s to low 60s across Eastern Kentucky. Winds will be
lighter and out of the west to northwest. Thursday evening,
temperatures will cool into the low 30s in the valleys, and mid to
upper 30s along ridge tops.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 550 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025

The long term period is expected to begin with the axis of an
upper level trough extending from Hudson Bay into the NOrtheast
and east of the eastern seaboard while the axis of an upper level
ridge is progged to extend from the western Gulf into the Southern
Plains to the CO Rockies to MT and then Saskatchewan/Manitoba
border area. Further west, an upper level low and trough are
expected to be extend from BC to near the Pacific northwest to
west of the CA coast. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is
expected to extend from the TN Valley/Southern Appalachians
vicinity to the western Great Lakes. Further south and west, the
boundary that will have crossed the area during the short term
period is expected to have begun to stall over the Gulf states,
while the western portion is expected to be lifting north and east
as a warm front across portions of the Central Conus/Plains as
sfc low pressure tracks across Alberta.

Thursday night to Friday night, the consensus of guidance is the
the axis of the upper level ridge centered in the Gulf should
shift east across the Central Conus and into the MS Valley and
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the northern portion of the upper trough
initially from BC to west of the west coast of the Conus closes
to an upper low the tracks across Alberta and Saskatchewan to
Manitoba with the associated shortwave trough moving near the
US/Canadian border reaches the Northern Plains and approaches the
Upper MS Valley. The southern portion of the trough that nears the
west coast of the Conus is progged to close off to an upper level
low that approaches Southern California on Friday night. At the
surface, the ridge of high pressure shifts north and northeast of
the area while a warm front is progged to lift into eastern KY
late Friday and Friday night as a sfc low in advance of the upper
low moving across Canada nears the Hudson Bay vicinity while that
systems cold front trails into the Central Plains to Southwest
Conus. Guidance continue to track a shortwave into the OH Valley
Friday. The passing shortwave and the nearing warm front will
bring a modest increase in moisture through the column to the
region with 00Z LREF mean PW climbing to around 0.75 to 0.9 inches
or roughly the 80the percentile by late Friday night. These
systems may result in sprinkles or isolated to scattered showers,
but at this time, the QPF forecast is very minimal at less than
0.05 inches for the more northern and eastern locations.
Temperatures will be mild enough for any precipitation with this
to be all rain.

Saturday to Sunday night, the axis of the upper level ridge is
progged to shift across the OH Valley on Saturday while the upper
low in Canada tracks into Ontario and then to the St Lawrence
Valley and Northeast. An associated shortwave should cross the
Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley Saturday into Saturday night with
the associated sfc low also reaching the St Lawrence Valley and
Northeast with an initial cold front crossing eastern KY on
Saturday night before a secondary front drops into the Central
Appalachians and OH Valley to end the weekend. Some rain showers
will again be possible mainly Saturday night and early Sunday with
these passing systems.

Monday and Tuesday, uncertainty increases with the upper pattern
particularly individual shortwaves moving through the flow as
broad troughing is expected to extend from eastern Canada into
the Northeast and mid Atlantic early Monday while a shortwave
ridge should move into the Central Conus. Further west, a trough
should be over the western Conus with the upper low that will have
approached and moved into CA and the southwest Conus to begin the
weekend may reach the Plains by early Monday. Again timing and
strength of these systems as well as position is lower than
average due to considerable range in guidance. The pattern
generally favors the frontal zone that may reach the area by late
Sunday night stationary in the Southern Appalachians to TN and OH
Valleys vicinity. Eventually, one more shortwaves moving from the
Southwest Conus and across the Central Conus may approach the area
and interact with this boundary for more focused rainfall though
this could be after the end of the period. With the boundary in
the vicinity, showers will remain possible, particularly once the
axis of any shortwave ridging moves east of eastern KY. Also with
spread of guidance, there is quite a bit of spread in the
temperature forecasts between the 10th and 90th percentiles. The
NBM pops and temperatures were a reasonable compromise among the
guidance as were the temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025

Winds will increase through the afternoon as an earlier inversion
has eroded, leading to south to west winds at 10 to 15 KT with
gusts as high as 20 to 20KT anticipated, though winds should begin
to slacken behind the cold front as sunset approaches. Winds
slacken to 5 to 10KT or less areawide from 00Z on. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GINNICK/JP