137
FXUS63 KJKL 171737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
137 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
  Thursday, with the potential for high water or flash flooding.

- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
  the week, with heat then building during the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

We continued the Flood Watch with the midday update and refreshed
grids, with no significant changes to the forecast. Showers have
begun to develop over our southwestern counties, and these showers
and storms will move northeast and increase in coverage through
this afternoon into this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 947 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

The forecast is largely on track. Did make minor modifications
upwards to PoPs for the remainder of this morning to ensure all
locations were at least at 15 percent. Otherwise, there were no
significant changes with the mid-morning update.

UPDATE Issued at 703 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

No major changes made to the forecast grids as they`ve largely
been on track through the morning. Just a little touch-up based on
the latest CAM guidance. Also, updated morning text and radio
products to reflect the changes. Grids have been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

Surface analysis from across the CONUS is rather active as several
disturbances exist across the CONUS. Locally, a stalled boundary
exists to the north of the area and this front is what triggered
this evening`s thunderstorm activity. To the west, an approaching
disturbance will bring increasing chances of showers and storms this
afternoon.

Through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon, increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances will exist. Ahead of shower and
storm development, forecast soundings suggest that these showers and
storms could be extremely efficient as tall and skinny CAPE profiles
exist. Also, forecast PWs upwards of 1.80" to 2.00" are in place.
Effective bulk shear values are relatively low leading to minimal
storm motions; as well as, limited chances for severe storms. These
conditions can and will combine to bring heavy rainfall to the area
which could lead to instances of flash flooding. Also of note,
saturated soils from prior rainfall exists. Therefore, a Flood Watch
was issued this morning to cover this heavy rain threat through late
Tuesday evening. Showers and storm threat will diminish toward the
overnight and eventually tapering off.

Wednesday will bring another day with shower and thunderstorm
chances as the area remains in the warm sector, ahead of an
approaching cold front. Again, these storms appear to be efficient
and can put down quiet a bit of rain in a short period of time.
However, PWs and forecast soundings aren`t as favorable as they were
forecast for Tuesday but the threat for hydro issues won`t diminish
for the rest of the forecast period.

Overall, the stormy and rainy forecast period will exist. Highs will
start in the low to mid-80s for Tuesday before starting to climb
into the mid to upper-80s for Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain
in the upper-60s to lower-70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

The forecast period begins with the area under the regime of the
warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The parent surface
low is forecast to be moving across the Great Lakes with the
trailing cold front extending southwest down to the high plains of
western Texas. Through the day Thursday, the cold front will slowly
approach the CWA before crossing through the CWA late Thursday night
into early Friday morning. Along and head of the front, showers and
thunderstorms will be likely. Some storms, with this front could
push severe limits but widespread severe weather isn`t expected as
favorable shear isn`t in place and storms won`t be able to grow and
strengthen. Once the front crosses the CWA, surface high pressure
will build into the region for Friday.

Surface high pressure will build into the region for Friday and will
persist through much of the weekend. Accompanying surface high
pressure, more summer-like temperatures are expected through the
weekend and into early next week. Highs are forecast to start in the
mid-80s for Friday before climbing into the 90s for Saturday and
remaining in the low to mid-90s through the end of the forecast
period. Some relief from the heat is expected beginning Sunday
afternoon as the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
return each day.

In summary, a stormy and rainy start to the forecast period will
exist before surface high pressure ushers summertime to eastern
Kentucky. Highs will start in the mid-80s for Friday before
starting to climb into the low to mid-90s from Saturday through the
rest of the period. Overnight lows will remain in the upper-60s to
lower-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring
frequent sub-VFR reductions through the TAF period, but will
generally be on a diminishing trend from 00z to 06z this evening.
Any partial clearing is likely to result in fog and low stratus
development this evening into Wednesday morning, especially in
the river valleys. Showers and thunderstorms then increase in
coverage again toward the end of the TAF period.


&&


.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC