725
FXUS63 KJKL 010835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures peak later today, while humidity gradually
  increases heading into the weekend.

- A slow moving front will likely bring showers and stray
  thunderstorms to the area from Friday afternoon into the weekend
  until a secondary boundary passes through ahead of the new work
  week.

- Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will be the rule
  through the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure parked east of Kentucky but
still in control of the weather for most of the state. This has
resulted in another night of mostly clear skies, light wind, and
areas of fog in the river valleys - becoming locally dense - but
probably not as bad as the past few morning`s. Meanwhile,
temperatures currently range from the low 50s in the sheltered
northeast valleys to the mid 60s on the ridges. Dewpoints are
generally in the mid to upper 50s across the area.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict ridging at 5h over the Southeast while a closed
trough opens up and spreads east out of the Southern Plains.
Through 12Z, Friday the bulk of this system`s mid-level energy
lifts north of Kentucky in conjunction with fairly strong
troughing pushing east through the northern Great Lakes in the
northern stream. Eventually, though, this wave of impulses settle
south into Kentucky with height falls for the area and more
influence from the weakening vort stream. Given the relatively
small model spread, most of the forecast grids again came from
unadjusted NBM data this morning. Only limited terrain-based
tweaks were made to the temperature grids tonight as more clouds
and southwest breezes should keep temperatures more uniform than
these past nights - though the deepest valleys will still likely
decouple early and drop off significantly. Did also apply a bit of
extra drying to the dewpoints this afternoon. As for PoPs, did
include the latest CAMs consensus guidance for Friday as the front
settles into the area.

Sensible weather will feature one more dry and warm day ahead of a
cold front slowly pressing south from north of the Ohio River
tonight. Look for breezy conditions from mid-morning into the
afternoon as temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s for
most spots. Clouds move in more completely late tonight and likely
help to moderate the terrain differences by dawn and also mitigate
the formation of thicker valley fog. Friday will see the front
spread southeast through the day with showers likely and a few
embedded thunderstorms possible during the afternoon, though
instability will be limited at generally 500 J/kg or less for most
places in the afternoon. Training of showers may lead to local
excessive rains, but the dry conditions for the past week will
limit the overall concern for this potential. With the thick cloud
cover and pcpn dropping in from the northwest on Friday,
temperatures will be much cooler for highs in the Bluegrass
Region - upper 70s - while the southeast half of the area manages
to still see the mid 80s.

The main changes to the NBM starting point were made to
temperatures and dewpoints - adjusted the T grids a bit tonight
for terrain details and dewpoints were slightly lowered this
afternoon. As for PoPs, included the latest values from the CAMs
for Friday`s pcpn chances - moving from northwest to southeast
through the area during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026

The extended portion of the forecast looks to be on track with
the idea of northwest flow setting up over the weekend at mid
levels, but most impulses staying north and east of our area. This
will mean rain chances ending by late in the weekend and drier
weather to follow through the start of the new work week.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The models are in good agreement with more of a split-flow long
wave pattern in place across the CONUS at the end of the work
week. A progressive short wave trough will start out over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday within the northern stream.
Meanwhile, a positively tilted southern stream short wave trough
will be positioned from the middle Mississippi Valley down through
northern Mexico. Ridging will be centered off of the southeastern
U.S. coast, while another high is sprawled from portions of the
Four Corners region to just offshore of the Southern California
coast. Through the weekend, the southern stream positively tilted
trough will gradually shift east with time. This feature will then
eventually be absorbed into amplifying northern stream energy by
early Monday. The northern stream will then hold sway generally
east of the Rockies through the middle of next week, with ridging
remaining anchored across the West. All of this will result in
unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky into the weekend, with
cooler and drier weather to follow for the first half of next
week.

Rain chances will be on the increase from northwest to southeast
across eastern Kentucky on Friday, as well above normal PWATs
(95th percentile) surge in ahead of an approaching surface cold
front. Fortunately, two things are working against the threat of
excessive runoff across the area. The first is antecedent dry
conditions heading into this event, with most waterways running
fairly low. The other will be the instability, as both LREF and
NBM probabilities for greater amounts (>500 J/kg) of SB CAPE and
MU CAPE have generally been trending down across our area. As
such, without better thunder potential, the majority of the
higher PWAT air will likely remain untapped. This is also seen in
the raw QPF numbers, with probabilities for seeing greater than 1
inch of rainfall in 24 hours ending 8 am Saturday across the area
remaining pretty meager from the NBM (10% southeast and 30-40%
northwest).

As the cold front exits our area Friday evening, widespread
shower activity will gradually diminish from northwest to
southeast. For Saturday, the better moisture gradient has shifted
a bit further into Tennessee this go around, with a larger PoP
gradient noted in the blended guidance from northwest to southeast.
Mostly cloudy skies will still be in place, with lingering low
level northeasterly flow in the wake of the cold front. A
secondary surge of moisture will move in for Saturday night and
Sunday, with higher PoPs favored across our terrain counties.
While a stray thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out, this
is also looking less and less likely, given the weaker
instability.

Cooler progressive surface high pressure will follow Sunday night,
moving in from the Plains. This high will shift east with time,
settling across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, before positioning
over New England by Wednesday. This will result in dry weather
across eastern Kentucky after Sunday. Cooler northeasterly flow
will remain in place through Tuesday, with below normal
temperatures expected. Highs will average in the 60s and 70s,
with overnight lows in the 40s. Some modest return flow ensues by
Wednesday, with temperatures returning closer to normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026

High pressure remains in the vicinity of Eastern Kentucky through
the period, leading to VFR conditions at all TAF sites and mostly
clear skies. Winds generally remain light out of the south to
southwest through the start of the day; however, by mid morning it
will become breezy as a 20-25 kt low level jet mixes down with
diurnal heating. TAF sites may see gusts out of the southwest as
high as 15-20 kt from 14-22Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HORTON/GREIF