163
FXUS63 KJKL 261733
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
133 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure brings dry and cool early autumn weather into
  early next week.

- Warmer temperatures return from the middle to end of next week,
  along with our next reasonable potential for rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 545 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026

Early this morning, an upper level low was centered
east/southeast of the Delmarva with an upper level ridge extending
form the western Gulf across the Arklatex region to the Northern
Great Lakes. Further west, meanwhile, an upper level trough was
working in across portions of the western Conus. In addition, a
shortwave trough was moving across portions of the central to
northern Plain. With the vertically stacked system off the east
coast, the sfc low was also centered east/southeast of the
Delmarva. Meanwhile, a ridge of sfc high pressure extended from
Ontario across the western and central Great Lakes to the OH
Valley and Southern Appalachians. In northwest flow aloft between
the upper low to the east and northeast of eastern KY and the
ridging to the west, some high to mid level cloud have been
passing overhead especially across western portions of the area.
Valleys and some lower lying areas have experienced temperatures
drop into the mid to upper 40s with low to mid 50s where the
clouds have been more prevalent and/or the terrain is more open.
Valley fog was evident on satellite and KY Mesonet weather
cameras or KYTC weather cameras in portions of the headwaters of
the Cumberland, the forks of the KY basin, and the Big Sandy in
particular. Some of this looked to be rather dense and an SPS was
issued from some of the eastern and southeastern counties until a
couple hours after sunrise.

Through Sunday, the upper low and sfc system should track in a
meandering fashion to near the NYC vicinity with northernly flow
remaining across the Commonwealth between this upper low and
ridging extending from the Southern Plains/western Gulf into
Central potions of the Conus. The axis of the ridging should
become established further west as the shortwave in the Plains
treks east northeast into Canada and weakens the northern portion
of the upper ridging initially in the northern Great Lakes
vicinity.

Initial valley fog may take as late as 9 to 10 AM to lift and
dissipate 2 to 3 hours after sunrise. Overall, surface and upper
ridging will keep a rather dry airmass across the region and with
the slow moving pattern, temperatures should change little for
highs through Sunday with lows Saturday night similar to what
occurs this morning. A few high or mid level clouds will pass by
from time to time as well. With the dry airmass, PW on the order
of 0.25 to 0.45 inches or the 3rd to 12th percentile for this time
of year per the 00Z HREF this afternoon and to 0.3 to 0.5 inches
or the 7th to 20th percentile on Sunday afternoon also per the
00Z HREF, NBM deterministic dewpoints both afternoons were
undercut and trended a bit toward Consshort or recent HRRR runs.
With the dry airmass it is probable that it will warm higher than
the NBM deterministic in many areas as occurred on Friday and more
in line with MOS/ statistical guidance. On average, highs were
raised a couple of degrees warmer than the NBM deterministic
values while more of a nocturnal valley inversion/ridge/valley
split pattern was used for lows compared to the unrealistic more
uniform NBM values.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 514 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026

The start of this period is characterized by clear skies and
quiet conditions with surface and upper level high pressure
dominating. Ridge/valley splits Sunday Night still look likely
with lows in the mid 40s in the valleys and low 50s on the ridge
tops and some valley fog is also probable. Looking at the
nationwide picture, an omega block will be setting up with two
upper level lows/troughs near the east and west coasts and
ridging/high pressure in the central US. This puts eastern KY in
the eastern periphery of the ridging that will migrate east
early next week. This will extend the dry and quiet weather until
PoPs return mid to late next week. As the ridge moves eastward we
will see a return of west to southwesterly flow allowing for a
gradual warming trend starting on Monday. This warming will
continue, with highs increasing each day until the upper 70s to
mid 80s return around Wednesday. That west to southwesterly flow
will also allow for increased moisture advection into the OH/TN
Valleys, increasing humidity in the latter half of next week.

Unsettled weather is set to return with rain chances starting around
Thursday. As the previously mentioned ridging moves through and
eventually out of the area, the initial western upper level low
will start to advance eastward as well. The trough is progged to
slow down quite a bit in the central US with a southeast ridge
likely being the culprit. Uncertainty exists in the evolution of
this pattern and the subsequent rain chances for the region next
week. But, the solutions that seems most plausible at this time
is that as the core of the upper level slows down in the central
US, some subtle shortwaves could eject and move downwind following
the contour of the southeast ridge. This would put those
shortwaves somewhere in the region starting in the mid-late next
week timeframe. NBM and LREF show gradually increasing PoPs with a
50-55% chance of >.01" of rain by Friday. It is important to note
that considerable uncertainty exists going into next weekend, but
NBM and LREF do show PoPs increasing to 70-80% of >.01" of rain
beyond the end of the 7 day period by later Sunday.

All in all, we are still on track to see temps increasing daily
starting next week, with upper 70s to 80s returning around
Wednesday. Low rain chances return as well starting around
Thursday and then increase as we go into next weekend. The usual
model uncertainties with a forecast this far out makes finer
details about next week`s rain chances hard to determine at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026

Expect VFR conditions and light north to northeasterly winds at
TAF sites through the period. Tonight, valley fog looks to
develop around 05Z, fully dissipating by 14Z, which could bring
localized IFR to MVFR conditions, although TAF sites should
remain unaffected. Some models do suggest low stratus could
develop overnight, roughly from 08Z to 14Z, although uncertainty
remains too high to include these clouds in TAFs at this time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DISINGER/JP
AVIATION...FAGAN/CMC