475
FXUS63 KJKL 252229
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
629 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend though there
  remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight.

- Warmer temperatures and a greater potential for showers and
  thunderstorms return early next week.

- These storms could be more organized and strong to severe on
  Monday afternoon into the night depending on MCS development and
  evolution to the north of Kentucky.

- Drier weather returns for the second half of the upcoming work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 419 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

The afternoon surface analysis shows weak high pressure just to the
south, with a warm front stretching across the Tennessee Valley. In
the upper levels we are squeezed between the ridging in the central
part of the CONUS and troughing in the east. There have been some
pesky light showers that have been pushing across the Lake
Cumberland and portions of the Cumberland Valley much of the day.
These are associated with some weaker shortwave impulses riding
through the broader northwest flow pattern. These seem to be
riding a notable PWAT gradient and should relent some through the
remainder of the afternoon. The guidance has been struggling to
model this convection throughout the day, but leaned more toward
the NAMnest which had the better coverage of showers through the
day.

Tonight, there is reasonable agreement among the guidance for
another shortwave to ride southward into the Ohio Valley. This will
help to advect better moisture and combined with the lift we should
see a resurgence in shower and possibly thunderstorm activity mainly
this evening into tonight. This leaves some uncertainty on any
ridge/valley splits so have kept that fairly minor at this point.
This also leads to uncertainty in fog coverage. However, would still
suspect at least some river valley fog to develop and perhaps more
extensive in areas that get precipitation. Given this will limit the
fog to the river valleys, but could need expansion in later updates.

Sunday, will be notably warmer than today with highs topping out
into the mid to upper 80s. Unlike today we will see little in the
way of triggers for convection and even some capping as ridging
continues to fight back. This said, will limit shower and
thunderstorm potential to the higher terrain near the Virginia and
Tennessee border. Sunday night, will be a bit more interesting as
the northwest flow regime remains in play and we remain open to the
potential for shortwaves riding within the flow. The CAMs are all
showing a convective complex of storms diving southward across the
Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley late Sunday night. The one
issue is run to run consistency has been less than desired and this
leads to a fair amount of uncertainty in the later parts of the
short term. Given this leaned toward a blend of short term models
and this brought in some slight to chance PoPs in the far southwest
toward Lake Cumberland. This will have to continue to be watched as
predictability will remain low given upstream convective trends will
dictate the future trends in convection.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 629 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

An amplified and pretty stagnant long wave pattern will remain in
place over the CONUS through next week. The center of an
anomalously strong upper level ridge will gradually shift west
over the Four Corners region, while troughing dominates east of
the Mississippi River. This will allow for northwesterly flow to
continue to be in place aloft across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys early in the upcoming week, with unsettled weather
expected. As troughing sharpens up more so across the Eastern
Seaboard by the middle and latter half of the work week, enough
residual 500 mb height rises will occur across eastern Kentucky to
allow for a return of drier weather from Wednesday through
Friday, before at least small rain chances return by Saturday, as
upper level height falls return across the region.

The threat of MCS activity will be on the table from Monday
through Tuesday across eastern Kentucky. Model guidance has been
inconsistent in positioning and timing, typical even within 24
hours or less, let alone 36-48 hours out. At this time, the
majority of model guidance is pointing more towards a quieter
daytime period on Monday, as Sunday night`s activity looks to stay
and exit mainly to our west. Heat and humidity will continue to
build in across the area, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90
and dew points in the lower 70s. While most activity currently
looks to move in after sunset, given the potential for upstream
outflow migration and influence, having at least 20-30 PoPs in
place as the latest guidance has offered up seems reasonable.
Better PoPs move in Monday night and linger into Tuesday. The
progressive nature of this activity lends to less of a hydro
concern; however, freezing levels will remain high and PWATs will
be peaking in the 75th-90th percentile range, so some quick bursts
of heavy rainfall are still possible. Additionally, any residual
outflow boundaries aligning more parallel with the upper level
flow will also need to be monitored, as this would be more
conducive to training cells. Cold pool intensity and longevity
will dictate the strong to damaging wind gust potential, and this
threat will exist Monday and Monday night across our area.

Another hot and humid day is on tap for Tuesday, with additional
MCS activity potentially in the vicinity, although even more
uncertainty exists regarding the details. A surface cold front
will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for the area by
Wednesday, with surface high pressure settling across the Ohio
Valley. Highs will retreat to more seasonable lower to middle 80s,
while lows range from the low to mid 60s at night. Drier weather
will give way to small rain chances (around 30%) by Saturday, as
high pressure weakens at the surface, and more troughing takes
place aloft. Fortunately, dew points will only moderate back into
the mid 60s by the start of the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

We continue to see a few mainly rain showers moving across the
Lake Cumberland region this afternoon. Given this did add in a
tempo group for a few hours at SME and LOZ for some lower vis
potential. Outside of this most sites will remain VFR for the
first 6 hours of the period. There is more questions as we move
past 00Z, as the guidance indicates additional convection
develops and pushes across the area. Given this kept a prob30
group for later this evening to handle this idea of some vis
restrictions. After this opted to add a bit of fog in the IFR to
MVFR range as we move toward dawn. This could be more tied to
those who see rain this afternoon and tonight, but some of the
guidance is quite bold with the idea of lowering vis. This will
have to be watched closer tonight and in the next TAF issuance.
The winds will mostly be light and variable below 5 knots outside
of any convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...DJ