337
FXUS63 KJKL 080920
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
520 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will turn cooler today as a brisk northerly breeze brings in
  drier air.

- Seasonably cool and dry conditions are expected to continue from
  this afternoon through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows a distinct cold front dropping steadily
southeast through eastern Kentucky. This is pushing one last round
of showers, with even a few in cloud lightning pulses noted west
of Middlesboro, through the JKL CWA during these pre-dawn hours.
The front is also bringing a change in wind direction as it passes
with north northwest winds of around 10 mph gusting to 15 mph in
its wake - helping to limit the fog left behind the showers. Under
plenty of very low clouds, temperatures range from the upper 50s
northwest to the mid 60s in the southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints
vary from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s in the southeast.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in terrific
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict the core of the trough, centered northeast of the
Great Lakes, working through the Ohio Valley early this morning.
This is taking its associated mid-level energy along with it. The
lowest 5h heights will be over eastern Kentucky this morning with
rising heights by afternoon in the wake of the passing trough and
ridging building over Texas. Some energy will be caught between
these features but likely stay west and south of this part of the
state through Thursday. The model spread is still fairly small
concerning these key features and supported using the NBM as the
starting point of the grids with minimal adjustments needed -
mainly just to include the latest PoP guidance from the CAMs
consensus this morning with some terrain enhancement included in
the hourly temperatures tonight.

Sensible weather features a return to seasonably appropriate
temperatures in the wake of a cold front this morning. Just a few
showers will be possible through mid morning long with some
sprinkles or drizzle from the low clouds. These will clear out
this afternoon from northwest to southeast thanks to the dry (and
cool) air mass being brought in on northerly winds. Mostly clear
skies and diminishing winds tonight will allow for some
radiational cooling and a small ridge to valley temperature split.
Leftover ground moisture will likely allow for fog development in
the valleys - but probably fairly shallow due to the drier air
mass. High pressure to the north on Thursday will make for a cool
and dry day on Thursday with slackening winds as the pressure
gradient relaxes.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures tonight along
with some extra drying to the dewpoints and RH Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
for temperatures each night through next weekend, along with a
touch of extra drying for each afternoon. The NBM PoPs being at a
minimum through the extended looks reasonable given the quiet weather
pattern into the middle of the month.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period begins Thursday morning with a small yet vigorous
disturbance over the Tennessee Valley within overall northwesterly
flow aloft between a strong ridge over the center of the country and
a deep trough exiting New England. This disturbance digs south to
the Southeast coastline and helps to develop a strong surface low
along the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, another upper low digs
southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and combines
with the Southeast low to form a large complex low off the Mid-
Atlantic coastline. Models are then in good overall agreement in
upper ridging building northeastward from the south-central CONUS
into the Ohio Valley to end the period Monday into Monday night.

Models continue to trend lower with Friday morning`s low
temperatures, especially in the most sheltered northeastern valleys,
where some isolated patchy areas of frost cannot be completely be
ruled out as temperatures dip into the mid-30s. Otherwise, cool and
dry conditions are expected to end this week, this weekend, and
early next week, though temperatures will be slowly trending upwards
after bottoming out behind the cold front that moves across the area
tonight. Any precipitation with the coastal low will remain east of
the area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

A range of conditions were reported at issuance time with some
locations IFR or lower while others were VFR. There continues to
be some uncertainty in conditions to begin the period with patchy
rain or upslope drizzle behind a cold front during the early
morning hours. Confidence is greater for a general trend of
deterioration in ceiling and visibility categories though the
first 3-6 hours of the period to widespread IFR or lower with some
lingering MVFR followed by widespread IFR or lower area-wide 9 to
12Z. Improvements gradually spread in from northwest to southeast
into VFR conditions between 12 and 21Z. During the first 12 or so
hours, there should be several hours of near or below airport
mins observed at the TAF sites on upslope stratus and drizzle
behind the front. Winds will be west and then northwest through
09Z and then finally trend to the north to northeast through the
end of the period with speeds of generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...JP/GREIF