816
FXUS63 KJKL 140247
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1047 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather will continue through the first half of next
  week, with showers and thunderstorms expected on most days.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today into
  the weekend with strong to damaging wind gusts the primary
  hazard. Hail, primarily sub-severe, cannot be ruled out with the
  most intense activity today (Friday).

- Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring a low-
  end threat of excessive rainfall and resulting isolated
  instances of high water or flash flooding through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Showers and storms have mostly left eastern Kentucky for the
night. Hi-res guidance shows the chance for some isolated showers
across the area overnight, but for most, shower and storm activity
has ended for the night. Updated the PoP grids to reflect recent
trends and hi-res guidance, but otherwise just blended in recent
obs and freshened product wording.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Not too many grid updates needed, as the going forecast was still
representative. Did blend in the current obs to try and capture
recent trends and tweaked PoP grids to carry the ongoing rough
line of showers and storms traversing the CWA. Current area that
we`re watching closely is our far southeast, close to the VA
border. That area hasn`t been tapped into yet, and has the best
instability to work with for the next couple of hours. Will be
watching for strong wind gusts and/or heavy downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025

At 330 PM EDT, regional radar showed a loosely organized "line"
of thunderstorms stretching from southwestern Ohio through Central
Kentucky/Middle Tennessee and across Alabama. Impacts to the JKL
CWA have largely been limited to the Lake Cumberland area so far.
Filtered sunshine has buoyed temperatures into the lower and
middle 80s across the forecast area this afternoon while dew
points hold within a few degrees of 70F at most locales. This
soupy air mass is courtesy southerly flow on the eastern side of a
sluggish upper level trough and weak surface low over Missouri.

As the aforementioned loosely organized line of storms pushes east
this afternoon and evening, it will encounter 1000 to 2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 25 to 30 kts of EBWD. This will be sufficient for
transient organization of cells in stronger line segments and
perhaps some brief, weak supercellular structures. Still
anticipate that the most intense activity could produce strong to
marginally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail (most likely
sub-severe). While PWATs are high (1.6 to 1.9 inches) across the
area, several days of relatively dry weather have allowed creek
and river levels to fall and soils to dry out somewhat. Thus
incoming rainfall this afternoon/evening should largely
wet the soil without causing significant flash flood concerns.
(Susceptible locations could see some elevated water flows and
urban/poor drainage ponding). The more widespread convection will
diminish to the east after sunset, though some chance of a shower
or thunderstorm does linger overnight as the low pressure system
drifts into southern Illinois by sunrise Saturday. A resurgence in
shower and thunderstorm activity can then be expected again on
Saturday into Saturday night as the upper low/trough and its
surface reflection coast to near Louisville, KY. Continued high
PWATs, a deep warm cloud layer and skinny CAPE will continue to
favor heavy rainers with sluggish storm motions around 20 kts.
Additional rainfall on top of soils already saturated (by prior
storms today and tonight) will lead to a risk for isolated flash
flooding. Accordingly, WPC has all of eastern Kentucky under a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Additionally, ~25 knots of
effective shear will once again be sufficient for some storm
organization.

In sensible terms, expect an unsettled start to the weekend with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
could occur at just about any time of the day or night but will be
most widespread in the afternoon and early evening. Skies will
generally feature at lot of clouds and some filtered sunshine each
day. Otherwise, it will be humid with daily high temperatures in
the lower to middle 80s and nighttime lows in the mid to upper
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025

The period will start with the main prevailing westerlies aloft in
rather zonal flow across the Great Lakes and New England, with
general troughiness in weaker flow extending southward over much of
the remainder of the eastern CONUS. A nearly stationary surface
frontal boundary is forecast to be laid out just to our north near
the Ohio River, with a warm and humid air mass in place on the south
side over our area. Although models will often have a difficult time
handling weak embedded features very far in advance, they are at
least suggesting that a minor shortwave trough (left over from the
upper low currently over MO) will be over KY on Sunday, continuing
to weaken and shift eastward. Considering all the aforementioned
factors, showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday,
especially during and just after peak heating. Flow aloft is
expected to be weak (mostly 15 kts or less below 500 mb) and
precipitable water rather high at 1.5-2", which would support
localized heavy rainfall in slow moving thunderstorms. Activity
should largely diminish during the night with loss of instability
and little advection.

Sunday`s shortwave should be departing to the east on Monday,
potentially leaving weak ridging aloft to be passing over during the
day. The frontal boundary is also expected to weaken (on its way to
dissolving). These factors would lessen the coverage of convective
precip. However, no change in air mass will occur and diurnal
destabilization should still result in showers/thunderstorms popping
up, with an overall diminishing trend with loss of instability
Monday evening.

After this point, model details become sketchier. The general idea
in both the GFS and ECMWF is for another weak upper trough to
approach and pass over the area with an uptick in precip on Tuesday.
Once this second wave departs to the east, models show little in the
way of features for Wednesday. This gives another day of lessened
precip coverage similar to Monday.

While all of this is going on, a somewhat more significant upper
trough embedded in faster flow will move onshore on the west coast
on Monday and make its way east across the CONUS. It is forecast to
approach and move through our area on Thursday and maybe into
Thursday night. It`s size and strength should support a cold front
to move through our area during that time. The front and upper
support bring another heightened POP. Somewhat drier air behind the
front and the eastward departure of the upper trough would result in
little or no precip on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Showers and storms continue to periodically bring sub-VFR
conditions across all TAF sites. Rain is expected to diminish in
coverage late tonight. Meanwhile, fog will be developing in the
valleys, possibly impacting KSME, KLOZ, and KJKL. Fog will be
dissipating by mid-morning tomorrow, before chances for showers
and storms increase again into tomorrow afternoon and carry to the
end of the TAF period. Similar to today, these showers and storms
would bring gusty and erratic winds and lower visibilities to any
impacted TAF sites. Outside of any storms, winds tonight will be
light and variable, before increasing out of the southwest
tomorrow to between 5-10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAS
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAS