660
FXUS63 KJKL 022007
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
407 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moving from northwest to southeast will bring
  showers to the area through tonight and perhaps a few
  thunderstorms through early evening. Rain chances will linger
  through the weekend in some locations, especially in southeast
  Kentucky.

- Dry and cooler weather will arrive area wide for the new
  workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 407 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

At 20Z, showers are streaming across eastern Kentucky as a cold
front passes through the area from northwest to southeast. Some
isolated thunderstorms will be possible between now and 6-8 PM
EDT as there`s enough instability to support a low-end chance for
thunderstorms. Temperatures across the area range from the upper
60s to lower 70s on the cool side of the boundary and where more
sustained light rains have occurred (northwest of Jackson).
Farther south, breaks in cloud cover have allowed temperatures to
warm into the lower to mid-80s. It is this area where
thunderstorms may be most probable if they were to occur. Winds
will gradually veer from a westerly direction to northeasterly
through this evening and overnight. Temperatures will cool into
the mid to upper 50s across much of the area, with some lower 60s
possible along the TN-KY and VA-KY borders.

A cold front is poised to stall just southeast of the forecast
area. Post-frontal scattered to numerous rain showers will
encompass areas along and south of the I-64 corridor through
Saturday morning. Chances drop considerably through the early
afternoon, before shower activity ceases for the remainder of
Saturday evening.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase in coverage once
again overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Deep moisture (PWATs
around 1.25 to 1.75 inches) interacting with an approaching
mid-level shortwave and low-level northeasterly flow will generate
a solid wave of overrunning rainfall.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Rain chances will extend into the start of this period. Higher
rainfall totals will likely occur across our southeast, closer to
where the better PWATs (1.6-1.8 inches per the latest LREF). There
is still quite a bit of spread in the guidance, with the 25th-75th
percentile differing by as much as an inch across our southeast. The
current forecast has totals on Sunday in the 0.5-0.75 inch range.

Monday will see the return to calm and quiet conditions across the
region. Rain will have cleared out from the previous day and high
pressure will build across the Great Lakes, before migrating further
east with time. A secondary high pressure system will then build in
across the Ohio Valley, sustaining our dry weather through Friday
with plenty of opportunities for sunshine. Highs each day through
the week should be in the 70s until a few 80s could return in our
southwest as early as Thursday. Lows, especially on Monday and
Tuesday nights, do look to be pretty chilly in the lower 40s. A few
sheltered valleys could dip into the upper 30s, although model
guidance does not really support frost quite yet, with fog a better
possibility in the river valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Conditions are a mix of VFR and MVFR as showers have begun across
the area along and near the passing cold front. Instability is
sufficient for a few thunderstorms, handled with PROB30 groups in
the TAFs. Ceilings will worsen from northwest to southeast through
06Z or so, with a period of IFR conditions expected through this
evening and overnight. Ceilings will then begin to improve through
the remainder of the TAF period starting in the northwest (06-18Z).
Winds should generally remain under 10 kts behind the front,
veering from northwest to northeast over the next few hours.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DISINGER/JKL
AVIATION...GINNICK/CMC