553
FXUS63 KJKL 251940
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
240 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  through Wednesday morning.

- Isolated, possibly strong storms are possible this afternoon/
  evening for areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for
  Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for Saturday and
  beyond.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 125 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

A shortwave trough that brought an area of rain/showers to the
region this morning to early this afternoon is across eastern KY
at this time and will depart into OH and WV over the next couple
of hours. Showers should be more isolated to scattered for the
rest of the afternoon, before a cold front nears this evening when
an uptick on coverage of showers should again occur and a storm or
two will also be possible. Hourly pops had a good handle on this
so the only changes were to hourly temperatures, dewpoints, and
winds at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 456 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

Surface analysis indicates a weak warm front is lifting northward
through the forecast area, currently situated just south of the Ohio
River, based on the latest surface observations. Concurrently, a
surface low-pressure system is tracking across the Hill Parishes of
northern Louisiana. Showers, associated with the warm front, are
currently moving across the CWA. Strong LLJ winds are mixing down to
the surface, resulting in increasing wind speeds, particularly
across the southern CWA. Consequently, an SPS for wind gusts up to
35 mph has been issued through the mid-morning hours.

Upper-level flow analysis shows an upper-level trough positioned
over the Flint Hills of eastern Nebraska. This trough is forecast to
rapidly eject northeast, drawing the northern Louisiana surface low
into the Tennessee Valley. This evolution will lead to an increased
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. There is a potential for
strong thunderstorms during Tuesday afternoon, ahead of a weak cold
front. Forecast soundings for the afternoon suggest that some storms
could be marginally strong. Instability indices indicate a few
hundred Joules of elevated CAPE, along with adequate shear and ESRH,
and a veering vertical wind profile. However, mid-level lapse rates
and the overall CAPE magnitude are characterized as marginal.
Despite the marginal metrics, the potential exists for an isolated
strong to severe storm, with the possibility of storms exhibiting
rotation. Areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway are favored
for seeing these stronger storms. The weak cold front passage is
forecast for later this evening.

The trough driving todays surface low will be absorbed into the mean
flow later this morning. Simultaneously, a stronger shortwave trough
is forecast to dive southeastward from the northern Rockies across
the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. At the surface,
another cold front will propagate southeastward into the
Commonwealth and eventually traverse the area throughout Wednesday
before quickly exiting the forecast area.

The overall short-term period will be characterized by the approach
of an occluding surface low on Tuesday. A second cold front is
forecast to arrive on Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to climb
into the low to upper 60s for Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures
will be mild, ranging from the upper 40s in the west to the mid-50s
in the east. Daytime high temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler
due to CAA following the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

The period begins Thanksgiving Day morning with a deep trough axis
over the Mid-Ohio Valley, with cold advection continuing through
the day and into Thursday night before ending by late Friday in
northwesterly flow aloft. This will mean temperatures struggling
to recover during the daytime hours both Thursday and Friday, even
under sunny skies, with lows falling into the upper teens to
lower 20s for most areas Thursday night. Surface high pressure
moves over the area Friday night, but by Saturday morning warm
advection is underway and cloud cover begins to gradually increase
from the west and continues through the day Saturday, allowing
for highs to recover into the 40s for highs.

A trough digging southeast through the Central Rockies and into the
center of the country Saturday on its way to the Great Lakes for
Sunday will push a cold front quickly eastward. The trough will be
able to pick up Gulf moisture and push it north into the Tennessee
and Ohio Valley, resulting in likely PoPs for Saturday night through
Sunday night, with temperatures warm enough for all rain with
temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. The WPC highlights the
greater Lake Cumberland region as being under the risk for heavy
rain during this time period, so this will be something we will be
monitoring for potential impacts.

Increasing uncertainty creeps into the forecast Monday and
especially beyond, mainly in association with a digging trough over
the Southwest CONUS that ejects east and northeast towards the
eastern half of the country towards Tuesday. The colder GFS, AI-
GFS and GEFS Ensemble Mean keep this wave weaker, more open and
progressive, and thus keeps a more suppressed and colder system
into the Tennessee/Cumberland Valley region and Southeast US,
which introduces some p-type concerns on the northwest side of the
precipitation shield which may include parts of eastern Kentucky.
On the other end of the spectrum is the ECMWF Operational and
ECMWF Ensemble Mean, which have a stronger shortwave with more
robust warm advection across our area. While the ECMWF and ECMWF
Ensemble Mean solutions suggest a higher chance for precipitation
across eastern Kentucky, it also brings warmer air and thus keeps
the hypothetical rain-snow line mostly if not entirely north of
the forecast area. The CMC Ensemble Mean is somewhere in between
these solutions. Of note, the NBM still has a very large
probabilistic temperature envelope for Monday into Tuesday of next
week, which conveys significant uncertainty in which scenario may
occur and thus potential p-type concerns. Thus, those interested
in the forecast for potential p-type concerns the early to middle
part of next week are encouraged to frequently monitor the
forecast through the remainder of this week into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

A mixture of mainly MVFR and VFR was reported at issuance time.
There should be a general lull in shower activity to begin the
period behind an upper disturbance, before a cold front nears
toward 00Z and crosses the area through about 06Z. There should be
an uptick in coverage of showers toward 00Z and for a few hours
after, generally for the more southern and eastern locations.
Chances for shower should linger through around 12Z, and even a
few hours later near the VA border as a secondary cold front
arrives and crosses east KY. A general trend to prevailing MVFR
and patchy IFR is anticipated with the cold front through roughly
04Z. Mainly MVFR should then prevail through 12Z, before
improvements to VFR spread from west to east to end the period.
Winds will average out of the south to southwest at 7 to 12KT to
begin the period before becoming southwest in all areas behind the
first front at 5 to 10KT. Then as the second front passes in the
12Z to 18Z timeframe, winds should become west at 10 to 15KT with
some gusts as high as 20 to 30KT possible. However, winds from any
thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening could be gusty and
erratic.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP