655
FXUS63 KJKL 171103
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
703 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
  Thursday, with the potential for high water or flash flooding
  at times.

- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
  the week, with heat then building during the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

No major changes made to the forecast grids as they`ve largely
been on track through the morning. Just a little touch-up based on
the latest CAM guidance. Also, updated morning text and radio
products to reflect the changes. Grids have been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

Surface analysis from across the CONUS is rather active as several
disturbances exist across the CONUS. Locally, a stalled boundary
exists to the north of the area and this front is what triggered
this evening`s thunderstorm activity. To the west, an approaching
disturbance will bring increasing chances of showers and storms this
afternoon.

Through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon, increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances will exist. Ahead of shower and
storm development, forecast soundings suggest that these showers and
storms could be extremely efficient as tall and skinny CAPE profiles
exist. Also, forecast PWs upwards of 1.80" to 2.00" are in place.
Effective bulk shear values are relatively low leading to minimal
storm motions; as well as, limited chances for severe storms. These
conditions can and will combine to bring heavy rainfall to the area
which could lead to instances of flash flooding. Also of note,
saturated soils from prior rainfall exists. Therefore, a Flood Watch
was issued this morning to cover this heavy rain threat through late
Tuesday evening. Showers and storm threat will diminish toward the
overnight and eventually tapering off.

Wednesday will bring another day with shower and thunderstorm
chances as the area remains in the warm sector, ahead of an
approaching cold front. Again, these storms appear to be efficient
and can put down quiet a bit of rain in a short period of time.
However, PWs and forecast soundings aren`t as favorable as they were
forecast for Tuesday but the threat for hydro issues won`t diminish
for the rest of the forecast period.

Overall, the stormy and rainy forecast period will exist. Highs will
start in the low to mid-80s for Tuesday before starting to climb
into the mid to upper-80s for Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain
in the upper-60s to lower-70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

The forecast period begins with the area under the regime of the
warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The parent surface
low is forecast to be moving across the Great Lakes with the
trailing cold front extending southwest down to the high plains of
western Texas. Through the day Thursday, the cold front will slowly
approach the CWA before crossing through the CWA late Thursday night
into early Friday morning. Along and head of the front, showers and
thunderstorms will be likely. Some storms, with this front could
push severe limits but widespread severe weather isn`t expected as
favorable shear isn`t in place and storms won`t be able to grow and
strengthen. Once the front crosses the CWA, surface high pressure
will build into the region for Friday.

Surface high pressure will build into the region for Friday and will
persist through much of the weekend. Accompanying surface high
pressure, more summer-like temperatures are expected through the
weekend and into early next week. Highs are forecast to start in the
mid-80s for Friday before climbing into the 90s for Saturday and
remaining in the low to mid-90s through the end of the forecast
period. Some relief from the heat is expected beginning Sunday
afternoon as the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
return each day.

In summary, a stormy and rainy start to the forecast period will
exist before surface high pressure ushers summertime to eastern
Kentucky. Highs will start in the mid-80s for Friday before
starting to climb into the low to mid-90s from Saturday through the
rest of the period. Overnight lows will remain in the upper-60s to
lower-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this TAF
issuance. However, as another round of showers and storms develop,
increasing and lowering of CIGS is expected. Also, gusty and
erratic winds are expected. Showers and storms will begin to taper
off overnight but don`t entirely diminish.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST