692
FXUS63 KJKL 251752
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
152 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend, with
  temperatures gradually moderating each day. Heat indices
  peaking in the 100 to 105 degree range are forecast for many
  locations through Thursday, before gradually lowering into the
  90s by Saturday.

- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase
  through the end of the week and weekend before peaking early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

Upper ridging will gradually weaken through Thursday night as a
weak upper trough develops over the Southeast U.S. This will help
to increase shower and thunderstorm probabilities for Thursday
afternoon and evening.

A few isolated showers and/or storms are possible through early
this evening, but most areas will remain dry. More supportive
conditions for storms will remain mostly east and southeast of the
forecast area, but these more supportive conditions arrive for
Thursday afternoon and evening area-wide, along with the risk for
a stronger storm or two that could produce damaging winds.

Although lower confidence compared to previous days, the Heat
Advisory has been extended one more day through Thursday to
account for maximum heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.
Meanwhile, one more night of record or near-record high minimum
temperatures are expected at our climate stations in Jackson and
London.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

Models are in good agreement that upper-level heights gradually
lower through the extended period, with a trough becoming
established over the Ohio River Valley this weekend and especially
into the first half of next week.

As the upper ridging weakens and slides east Friday, mid-level
southerly flow will increase over the area, which along with the
presence of mid-level dry air may present an environment
supportive of isolated microbursts producing locally damaging
winds.

As showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely each
day from Friday into next week, the increased cloud cover and
moisture will allow for high temperatures to gradually lower back
towards seasonal normals, while lows will also remain mild to warm
but also trend back below threatening daily records for high
minimums. The one aspect of the forecast that does not look to
change is the high humidity, with 70s continuing through at least
Tuesday if not also Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025

High pressure and ridging aloft will remain over the region
through the TAF period resulting in light and variable winds. VFR
conditions will likely hold across the area with the exception of
late night/early morning fog in the valleys which may affect the
terminals for a time.

Though the potential is low, a stray shower or storm is possible
through mid-evening, and then again right at the end of the TAF
period Thursday afternoon. In addition to brief reductions below
VFR conditions, gusty winds will be possible in and near any
showers/storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC