184
FXUS63 KJKL 051442
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
942 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast
  period, although confidence remains low in each passing system`s
  precipitation type and accumulation forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

Just a quick refresh to the grids to incorporate the latest
surface obs and to clean up morning text and radio products from
expired winter products. Grids have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 759 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

Precipitation over far eastern Kentucky has dwindled to the
extent that the remaining Winter Weather Advisory could not
longer be justified. It has been replaced by a SPS to cover the
potential for an lingering slick spots. Even once the precipitation,
moves out, low clouds (and fog in some areas) will linger for
much of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

Regional radar shows the back edge of the steadier precipitation,
extending from roughly Inez to Somerset at 0830Z, gradually
sinking southeast early this morning. Precipitation has been in
the form of snow for many, but a warm nose of air aloft has led to
some sleet and rain mixing in (both liquid and freezing) across
portions of those counties adjacent to the KY-VA border. Webcams
show minor accumulations across much of the area near and south of
the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures range from the mid-20s north
of I-64, closer to a frigid air mass in place north of the Ohio
River, to the mid-30s in the deepest valleys around Middlesboro
and Harlan. The latest surface analysis shows a frontal boundary
extending north from an approximately 1015 mb low just off the
coast of the Florida Panhandle to a weak wave over the Southern
Appalachians. Well upstream, a weak low pressure system is noted
over Northern Ontario, while a cold front extends southwest into
the Northern Plains. Aloft, a weakly troughed to largely zonal
flow with embedded disturbances is noted across the CONUS east of
the Rockies.

The aforementioned low will pull away to the east this morning,
causing the precipitation shield to shift east with it, likely
exiting the easternmost extreme portions of the CWA by around
10-11 AM EST. Additional snowfall through that time should be an
inch or less and largely in the two tiers of counties adjacent to
the KY-VA border. A weak ridge of high pressure will build across
the Commonwealth later in the day under weak height rises.
However, soundings suggest that moisture will remain trapped under
a sharp low-level inversion, leading to continued low clouds and
ridgetop fog today and tonight. This will continue to limit
diurnal temperature ranges. Meanwhile, the cold front and an
associated upper-level disturbance, initially over the Northern
Plains at the start of the forecast period, will dive southeast.
The front stalls northwest of the Commonwealth, deserted by the
upper-level energy which passes over eastern Kentucky on Saturday.
Soundings suggest sufficient mid-level moistening for at least a
few flurries or sprinkles over the northern third to half of the
forecast area, but overall moisture and lift will be minimal.
Abundant cloud cover will once again limit diurnal heating.

In sensible terms, look for lingering snow or mixed precipitation
over southeastern Kentucky to taper off from the northwest
through late this morning. Abundant cloud cover and ridgetop fog
will then persist through the remainder of the period. There will
be a low chance for a few more sprinkles or flurries on Saturday,
primarily near and north of the Mountain Parkway, with no impacts
anticipated. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to peak in
the low to mid-30s north to the lower 40s in deep southeastern
valleys. For tonight, anticipate some fog in addition to the low
clouds, as temperatures sink back into the 25F to 30F range. On
Saturday, temperatures should be slightly warmer, ranging from the
mid-30s to mid-40s, north to south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

After a cold and dry start to the long term forecast period on
Saturday evening, wet weather looks to return to Eastern Kentucky on
Sunday. A shortwave disturbance is forecast to propagate towards the
Ohio River Valley in this time frame as better-defined midlevel
troughing lingers over the Great Lakes. The cold front associated
with that troughing will likely come to a crawl north of the
forecast area on Saturday night. The approach of that secondary
disturbance on Sunday will shift winds in the lower portions of the
column towards the southwest before the surface cold front gets
dragged into the forecast area on Sunday evening. Thus, warm air
advection will allow temperatures to climb into the mid/upper 40s on
Sunday afternoon as increasing atmospheric moisture leads to
widespread PoPs. Precipitation is forecast to begin as rain on
Sunday afternoon, although potent cold air advection on the backside
of the boundary will lead to plummeting temperatures on Sunday
night. Guidance collectively depicts subzero 850mb temperatures
spreading across the forecast area after sunset, which supports some
snowflakes mixing in as precipitation tapers off from NW to SE
overnight. LREF Grand Ensemble probabilities of accumulating
snowfall have ticked up relative to this time yesterday. There is
currently a 40-60% chance of seeing at least 0.1 inches of snow in
most of the forecast area for the 24 hour period ending at 1PM
Monday. The highest probabilities continue to be depicted in
locations north and east of the KY-15 corridor, but these values
steadily drop off with increasing accumulation thresholds. This
reinforces the idea that QPF with this system will be rather light,
and the risk for widespread winter weather impacts currently appears
low. Nevertheless, we will closely monitor trends in the data as
this system enters the temporal range of higher-resolution forecast
models.

A continental high pressure system is forecast to build into the
area in the wake of this system, leading to persistent cold air
advection via north-northeasterly flow on Monday. After widespread
mornings lows in the 20s, temperatures will struggle to climb much
higher than the mid 30s. If post-frontal low-level stratus hangs
around into the afternoon hours and there is snow on the ground,
temperatures could under-perform the current forecast MaxT values.
The high shifts east overnight into Tuesday, which should foster a
clearing trend and a return to SW surface flow by Tuesday afternoon.
Ridge-valley temperature splits appear possible on Monday night,
with MinTs in the lower 20s possibly dropping down into the teens in
the coolest valleys. Warm air advection will allow temps to recover
into the low/mid 40s on Tuesday afternoon, setting the stage for a
warmer, wet, and windy Wednesday.

Models develop a rather deep surface low pressure system to the
northwest of the forecast area by midweek as southwesterly flow
continues around the backside of the surface high here in the
commonwealth. In response to the tightening pressure gradient, winds
will intensify and become quite gusty. The GFS remains much more
aggressive than its European counterparts with Wednesday`s winds,
but confidence is increasing in the potential for gusts in excess of
25-30 mph. Regardless of wind magnitude, the strong SW flow regime
will lead to rather efficient warm air advection. Forecast highs
have trended upwards accordingly, and locations south of the I-64
corridor could see MaxTs in the lower 50s on Wednesday afternoon. As
the aforementioned low and its frontal boundaries approach the area
on Wednesday, precipitation chances will increase. The antecedent
warmth favors a plain, liquid rain at the onset of the system, but
the exact evolution of the synoptic pattern into Thursday remains
uncertain. A changeover to wintery precipitation cannot be ruled out
on the backside of this system, but it remains difficult to pinpoint
specific details regarding accumulations and p-type timing at this
moment in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

LIFR to MVFR conditions were observed across eastern Kentucky at
TAF issuance. The back edge of the precipitation shield will
continue exiting through far eastern Kentucky by around 15Z.
Even once precipitation departs, IFR to MVFR ceilings are
expected to generally prevail through the remainder of the period
with periods of worse conditions possible as low clouds become
trapped under a persistent low-level inversion. Winds will be
light throughout the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON