864
FXUS63 KJKL 241824 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
124 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues through this afternoon.

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  between tonight and Wednesday morning, leading to widespread
  rain chances late tonight and on Tuesday.

- Isolated strong storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon/
  evening for areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80
  corridor.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will settle into the region for the
  beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
satellite trends. Dense fog was becoming less widespread and the
Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 9 AM EST. Lingering
fog in some areas will dissipate within the next hour or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 447 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

In the most recent surface analysis, surface high-pressure is
centered over the Ohio Valley, its influence is extending across
much of the eastern CONUS. To the northwest and southwest, two
distinct disturbances are noted: one is tracking across southern
Canada and the other is centered over the Texas Panhandle. Locally,
the region remains under the influence of this surface high-pressure
ridge, which has primarily favored clear skies. The combination of
clear skies and lingering low-level moisture from preceding rainfall
has facilitated the development of dense fog, necessitating the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory.

Forecast upper-level flow shows a trough pivoting eastward off the
U.S. East Coast toward the Gulf of Maine. Concurrently, to the
southwest, upper-level ridging and associated height rises have
progressed northward into the Tennessee Valley. Consequently, at the
surface, high pressure will dominate the area today, but the ridge
axis will shift overhead and move eastward. As this translocation
occurs, southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upstream
shortwave trough will advect into the region, initiating WAA today.
This trough, currently situated over the western High Plains, is
forecast to eject rapidly east throughout the day, drawing the Texas
Panhandle surface low closer to the CWA. By this evening, showers
associated with a developing warm front are expected to increase in

coverage and persist through the overnight hours.
Post-warm-frontal showers will continue through the overnight Monday
and persist throughout the day Tuesday, with showers and
thunderstorms anticipated areawide. Some of the thunderstorms on
Tuesday afternoon could approach the threshold for severe potential.
Forecast soundings for Tuesday afternoon, preceding a weak cold
front, suggest an elevated severe storm potential. Forecast
instability indices show a couple of hundred Joules of elevated
CAPE, adequate shear and ESRH, and a veering vertical wind profile.
However, mid-level lapse rates are characterized as marginal.
Nonetheless, the potential exists for a strong to severe storm, with
the possibility of storms exhibiting rotation. Based on these
factors, and in collaboration with the SPC, the Day 2 Marginal Risk
was extended northward into the area for Tuesday afternoon. A 2%
tornado risk and a 5% damaging wind risk are in effect along and
south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. While these threats are subject to
minor northward or southward adjustments, the current trend
indicates these locations have the highest probability of
experiencing severe storms. A weak cold frontal passage is forecast
for the conclusion of the short-term forecast window.

The period will be characterized by surface high pressure today,
followed by the approach of an occluding surface low from later
tonight through the end of the period. Showers and the potential for
strong to severe storms are present on Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 50s in the north
to the mid-60s across the south today. Overnight low temperatures
will be mild, ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s, and daytime
highs will rebound into the low to upper 60s for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 447 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

The long-term forecast period commences with the approach of a
second upper-level trough. The trough responsible for Tuesdays
surface low will be absorbed into the mean flow, but simultaneously,
a stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of the northern
Rockies into the Upper Midwest. This second system is projected to
track through the Great Lakes and usher another cold front through
the area throughout the day Wednesday before quickly exiting late
Wednesday night.

Following the exiting front on Wednesday night, a surface high-
pressure system is forecast to build into the region and remain in
place from Thanksgiving through late Saturday night. While surface
high pressure prevails, the upper-level flow will persist out of the
northwest, promoting the advection of colder air for Thanksgiving
and Black Friday.

Long-term deterministic models and a significant portion of their
individual ensembles suggest an active conclusion to the long-term
period. While discrepancies exist among model runs, the consensus
trend is a shortwave perturbation moving out of the southern Plains
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This feature will bring increasing
chances of rain showers, along with the potential for a rain/snow
mix Sunday morning before temperatures warm sufficiently to support
an all-rain precipitation type.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a couple of mid-week
cold fronts, followed by high pressure building into the region on
Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant and seasonal
until Thursday, when the cold front ushers in a significantly colder
air mass for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Behind the front,
overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the 20s for the
mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before a warming trend
begins for Sunday morning. Another low-pressure system is forecast
to move into the area toward the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025

VFR was reported at issuance time and VFR should prevail for most
of, it not the entire period. After 12Z, MVFR may spread as far
east at KSYM, KLOZ, and KSME. Shower chances spread across the
area between about 00Z and 08Z, in advance of a warm front that
lifts into the area ahead of low pressure tracking from the
Arklatex into the OH Valley. Showers overnight could lead to
brief visibility reductions, but VFR should prevail. Winds will
be light and variable through the 03Z to 06Z timeframe, before
increasing from the southeast to south to 10KT or less through
around 12Z. Thereafter, south to southwest winds at 5 to 13KT are
expected with gusts as high as 20 to 25KT. However, until
sustained winds increase, a threat of LLWS is anticipated between
about 03Z in the west and lingering as late as 15Z to 16Z in the
more northern and eastern locations.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP