134
FXUS63 KJKL 061940
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed
  by cooler weather to finish the week.

- There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall Tue through Tue
  night, with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain possible
  if storms move repeatedly over the same areas.

- Cooler and dry conditions are expected from Wednesday afternoon
  through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered along
portions of the eastern seaboard while the axis of an upper level
trough extended from Hudson Bay into the Northern Plains to Great
Basin region. At the surface, high pressure was centered off the
coast of New England and extended back toward the Southern
Appalachians while a sfc frontal zone extended from Quebec to the
Great lakes to Southern Plains to Four Corners region. Return
flow in between these two systems was ushering much more moisture
air into the OH and TN Valley, with PW analyzed in the 1.3 to
1.65 inch range from east to west across the JKL CWA with PW
analyzed near or in excess of 2 inches from far western KY south
through the MS Valley. Temperatures were mild across the region
at 3 PM EDT, generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Some cumulus
have developed across the region with some mid and high clouds
also passing overhead.

The upper level trough axis is expected to advance to Ontario to
the Upper MS valley to parts of the Central Plains/Four Corners by
early on Tuesday. Moisture will continue to advect into the
Commonwealth and spread from west to east. On Tuesday, the axis of
the upper trough should advance to the Ontario/Quebec border to
the Great Lakes to mid MS Valley with this trough axis moving to a
Quebec to Lake Ontario to Lower OH Valley line late Tuesday
night. The preceding cold front will approach the lower OH Valley
tonight and cross western KY and move into central KY by late
Tuesday evening and then across eastern KY during the overnight
hours Tuesday night.

Moisture advection into the region will allow for PW peaking in
the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon
into portions of Tuesday night. These values are above the the
percentile climatologically and not far from the record values
for October 7th. Instability will be limited, but isolated to
scattered storms are possible near and in advance of the front.
12Z HREF LPMM rainfall ranges from the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range in
some of the rainshadowed areas downwind of Pine and Black Mtns to
as much as 2 to 3 inches in some areas nearer to Lake Cumberland
and north of the Mtn Parkway. Guidance varies with some of the max
amounts and locally higher totals of 4 to 6 inches were present
in a narrow corridor along sections of I-64 in the Bluegrass
region. 3 hour 12Z HREF max rainfall across parts of the
Commonwealth reach as high as 2 to 3 inches while 6 hour 12z HREF
max rainfall values are a tad higher. If thunderstorms trained or
moved repeatedly over an area the high end values could be
realized and would be near FFG values in some places, leading to a
risk of high water and flash flooding. In general, much of the
region has been dry over the past week or more and the residence
time of the higher PW airmass in eastern KY will be less than in
central KY and would appear to be a limiting factor or at least
lead to less than average confidence at this time range. The
potential for heavy rain is highlighted in the HWO and the key
messages above and will also be highlighted in Weatherstory posts
on social media and the JKL webpage.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with increasing clouds and
moisture as well as areas of showers arriving from the west. The
clouds and convection will result in cooler and nearer to normal
high temperatures on Tuesday as compared to what has been
observed over the past few days. Tuesday night will be rather mild
as well with anticipated cloud cover, convection, and the front
passing. However, colder and drier air will be ushered in behind
the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Showers/thunderstorms end late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning as a cold front and upper trough move across from the west
and northwest. This will leave us with west-northwest flow aloft
and surface high pressure passing east over the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, sending us noticeably cooler and drier air.

Multiple shortwave troughs are expected to move southeast in the
flow aloft late in the week and consolidate into a complex upper
low next weekend somewhere over the Central Appalachians and Mid-
Atlantic regions, with the ECMWF and GFS in generally good
agreement. Along with this, there is development of a coastal
surface low that moves up the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastline
while remaining offshore, perhaps taking on some subtropical
characteristics. Regardless, the new scenario favors precip being
confined to areas to our east. Thus, after Wednesday morning PoPs
remain generally at or below 10 percent through the duration of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the first 12 to 15
hours of the period. However, an area of showers associated with
an approaching cold front should begin to begin to arrive from
the northwest by the 06Z to 12Z timeframe and could result in MVFR
conditions northwest of a KSJS to KJKL to KSME line which may
affect KSYM before 12Z. The area of showers and perhaps some
embedded storms should move further southeast into the area
between 12Z and 18Z and is forecast to bring MVFR to all the TAF
sites to end the period. Winds will generally be light and
variable through tonight and then become south to southwest at
10KT or less to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC/HAL
AVIATION...JP