864
FXUS63 KJKL 162046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
446 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm/hot temperatures and high dew points will persist,
  resulting in sultry conditions.

- There will be a daily potential for showers/thunderstorms,
  especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Thunderstorms over the next several days could produce locally
  heavy rainfall at times, potentially leading isolated to
  scattered instances of high water or flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025

A shortwave currently passing through the Ohio Valley is supporting
another 500-mb vorticity maxima, as it slowly advances through
Kentucky this afternoon and evening. This maxima has helped initiate
another round of convection this afternoon, with isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms already ongoing. Any
training or slow moving storms do have the potential to produce
locally heavy rain rates with PWAT hovering just over 2 inches in
model soundings, and in the 12Z sounding out of BNA. Heading into
the early evening showers and storms will begin to taper off from
west to east, although shower activity may linger across the
Cumberland Plateau. CAMS have somewhat struggled to pick up on
this potential, with the HRRR being the only one latching on to
entrained showers across the southeast. A look at dewpoints will
show that current CAM models likely underdo them compared to what
is out there. This will hamper modeled shower and storm activity
and may be under-forecasted. Additionally, looking at the the
RAP, 925mb winds are out of the southwest around 20 knots,
bringing more moisture rich air into the region later this
evening. POPs have been adjusted up and maintained across the
Cumberland Plateau through 05Z. Conditions are quiet moist out
there at current, with dew points in the mid to upper 70s across
much of the area, and low 70s in the southeast. Afternoon
temperatures will likely peak around 90 before cooling into the
lower 70s this evening.

Thursday, a strong Bermuda-High off the SE Atlantic coast, along
with a trailing cold front through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley
will lead to showers and storms again Thursday across Kentucky.
Models show ample instability across portions of the CWA with
afternoon SFC CAPE above 4000 J/kg near Morehead, and PWAT
remaining around 2 inches. Current HRRR model data shows a
convective line moving through around 20Z, though this is likely
to late, as the 15Z HRRR has dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s, are likely underdone. RAP guidance has dew points in the mid
to upper 70s which is closer to what will likely occur. In this
pattern the HRRR has consistently underdone dew points. There`s
also a 500-mb vorticity maxima that moves through around 16Z. This
is will likely "kick things off" in regards to convection, with
isolated storms to start. Eventually a convective line will
likely develop in the afternoon, which could produce gusty to
damaging wind gusts. The SPC has placed the area in a Marginal
Risk for such the hazard. As mentioned earlier, PWAT`s will remain
around 2 inches. Any thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
rainfall and strong to locally damaging wind gusts. With recent
rainfall, and continued PWATs near or above the 75th percentile
for this time of year, the WPC has placed Eastern Kentucky in a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. While temperatures are
forecasted to be similar to today, in the upper 80s to low 90s,
the added moisture with higher dew points in the mid to upper 70s
creates added stress on the general public when outside for
prolonged periods of time. Heat indices in the upper 90s,
approaching 105 in places, will create an added hazard; though
reaching these conditions are very dependent on timing and
coverage of expected convection tomorrow.

Showers and storms will likely persist into the evening and
overnight, as moisture and instability will remain present. There
may be a breif lull earlier in the evening before mid-level
forcing becomes more favorable later overnight. Temperatures are
anticipated to cool into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 446 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025

The 16/12z model suite is in good synoptic agreement showing a
stagnant and soupy pattern lingering through at least next
Wednesday. The long-term analysis beginning Friday morning, shows
an ~596 dam high situated north of the Bahamas with a ridge axis
extending westward through the Gulf Coast States to the Texas
Panhandle. A quasi-zonal 500 hPa flow rests atop the ridging
across the northern CONUS from the Rockies eastward to New
England. There is also a stalled frontal boundary extending from
the Delmarva Peninsula westward across the Central Appalachians to
along the Lower Ohio River and then beyond into the Kansas
prairies. Multiple 500 hPa disturbances (vorticity maxes) will be
riding the baroclinic zone, ejecting from the Plains into the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile PWATs remain at ~150 percent of normal, close
to 2.0 inches.

Through Sunday, the upper level high will retrograde westward to
over the Lower Mississippi Valley while the stalled frontal
boundary will waver on either side of the Lower Ohio River. LREF
PWATs remain high, around 1.9-2.0 inches (or ~90th percentile
relative to climatology), as they are reinforced with additional
moisture from Invest 93L through the weekend. Instability values
climb to between 2,000 and 3,000+ J/kg of MUCAPE each afternoon
while a stream of upper level disturbances transit the region from
west to east. For the time being, not seeing a particularly
strong integrated moisture transport signal favoring a widespread
organized flooding event. However, the ongoing daily rounds of
showers and storms will help prime our area for flash flooding in
advance the wettest days of the period -- Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday. Additionally, the parameter space will be quite favorable
at times for persistent training and/or repeated rounds of
convection. While it is far too early to pinpoint locations where
the heaviest activity might occur, the environment does appear
supportive of flash flooding, perhaps locally high-impact.
Interests near streams and smaller rivers are encouraged to
monitor later forecasts and be alert for potential flood
headlines.

From Monday on into the middle of next week, the upper level high
will drift northward to over the Mid-Mississippi Valley while the
stalled boundary will retreat northeast. This will leave a hotter
and still very humid air mass over the region. Disturbances
riding around the high will likely favor the initiation of ridge-
riding MCSs diving from the Upper Midwest toward the Central
Appalachians at times, though considerable sunshine and rain-free
time is probable as well. Heat indices could approach/exceed the
Heat Advisory threshold (105F) for some locations on Tuesday and
more likely on Wednesday.

In sensible terms, periods of showers and thunderstorms, some
with torrential downpours, will continue through the upcoming
weekend. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding appear
increasingly probable and could become significant in the hardest
hit locales. The most widespread rainfall is expected during the
afternoon or evening hours, but showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible during the night as well and could still produce
torrential rainfall late into the night. High temperatures are
forecast to reach mainly into the middle 80s through Sunday while
nights remain very muggy as temperatures only settle back into the
lower 70s. Looking ahead to the new work week, temperatures are
forecast to begin climbing a few degrees warmer each day while
humidity levels remain high. Increasingly oppressive heat indices
could flirt with 95F to 105F by Tuesday afternoon and soar into
the 100F and 110F range on Wednesday afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be ever present, though coverage is
expected to be less than the Friday-Sunday period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have already commenced this afternoon
along a boundary and will continue to push across eastern
Kentucky this afternoon and early evening. A PROB30 group has been
maintained at all TAF sites through 24Z. Storms may linger at SJS as
late as 03Z this evening before tapering off. Could see some MVFR
with the convection, but generally looking at VFR through this
afternoon outside of any convection. A PROB30 has been introduced
to all TAF sites at the tail end of the TAF period, as afternoon
convection looks to get going again anytime after 16Z Thursday.
Winds at the surface will generally remain light through the TAF
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK