528
FXUS63 KJKL 060657
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
257 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist early this
  week.

- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms moving southeast over the area Tuesday and Tuesday
  night, followed by cooler weather to finish the week.

- A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall exists for Tuesday through
  Tuesday night, with isolated areas of 2 to 3 inches of rain
  possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

No major changes in this update as the forecast remains on track.
Just incorporated the last obs and touched up the aviation grids
ahead of the 00Z TAFs. Evening text and radio products have been
updated and grids have been resent to web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 524 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

Increased cloud cover slightly for the next few hours over the
southern tier of counties bordering Tennessee in line with current
satellite trends. Otherwise, there are no changes to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

This afternoon through Tonight:

High pressure is set up off the Virginia coast and upper-level
ridging will keep eastern Kentuckys weather quiet the rest of
today into tonight. Tonight, moisture will be advected northward
by return flow between the high pressure to the east and a mid-
level trough moving into the northern Plains, leading to increased
cloud cover, primarily in the low to mid-levels. Ridge/valley
temperature splits are expected, especially early tonight, with
lows in the low to mid-50s in valleys and upper 50s to lower 60s
on ridges. River valleys can also expect another round of fog, but
should be some what less than the last few nights.

Monday:

The dominant high pressure and ridging will further weaken as a
cold front moves southeast toward the Ohio Valley. Several waves
will ride northward along the mid-level flow on the periphery of
the ridging, bringing in low chances (less than 20%) of rain
showers as the column moistens. The best chance for precipitation
appears to be in western portions of the CWA, with overall low
rainfall amounts. Highs will once again reach the lower 80s in the
return flow.

Monday Night:

The cold front will continue to sag toward the Ohio Valley, with
a better mid-level wave and decent upper-level right entrance
region jet divergence noted late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Increased return flow will usher in nearly 90th
percentile PWATs (1.6 to 1.7 inches) for this time of year, aiding
in a better chance (20-50%) of rain showers and perhaps a rumble
of thunder from west to east mainly toward dawn Tuesday morning.
Increased cloud cover will keep overnight lows more uniform in the
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

The period starts Tuesday with a strong warm advection regime ahead
of an approaching cold front. Passing embedded shortwaves and a west-
southwesterly mid-level jet streak will help enhance rainfall over
the northern half to two-thirds of the forecast area through the
day Tuesday, with a second push of enhanced rainfall coming just
ahead of the cold front impacting the entire forecast area
Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

This is shaping up to potentially be a decent QPF event for the JKL
CWA, even despite current dry trends, with areas along the
Virginia border starting to approach 1.00" on average, with
maximum amounts of 1.50" to 1.75" across the northern and central
parts of the forecast area. 90th-percentile QPF for the 72-hour
period ending at 8 AM Thursday range from 1.75" along the Virginia
border to as high as 3.25", so there is certainly some potential,
though low, for excessive rainfall, with WPC now upgrading all of
the forecast area to a low-end Slight Risk with the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for the entire forecast area from 12z Tuesday
through 12z Wednesday.

The cold front clears the area by mid-afternoon Wednesday, with
continued passing shortwaves within progressively more northerly
flow by the weekend as the passing shortwaves dig out a large closed
upper low, or at least a deep-latitude trough, to our southeast over
the Southeast CONUS next weekend. The uncertainty with the
individual details between models from Thursday through Saturday
will keep low-end PoPs in the forecast within an overall cooler
temperature regime that will return the forecast area closer to
normal for early October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Localized valley fog will bring sub-VFR conditions to some areas
early this morning, especially in southeast KY, but it`s not
expected to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL