323
FXUS63 KJKL 051420
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1020 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist early this
  week.

- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms moving southeast over the area Tuesday and Tuesday
  night, followed by cooler weather to finish the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

The morning surface analysis shows high pressure remains setup to
the east near the Virginia coast. This will continue to usher in
return flow and warm weather across the Bluegrass state. The
morning fog has mostly dissipated and we will be left with sunny
to mostly sunny skies this morning going into this afternoon.
That said, there might be a few shallow cumulus that develop this
afternoon much like yesterday based on the forecast sounding data.
No big changes needed this update, with forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 757 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

Forecast is on track and only very minor changes were made. Fog in
valleys will dissipate over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 452 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

Dry weather is forecast to last through the short term period, but
the pattern responsible for it will begin to break down.

Early this morning, high pressure surface and aloft is centered
near the VA/NC coasts. On the south side of the high, Atlantic and
gulf moisture is advecting west and northwest into the southeast
CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper trough extends from the Canadian
prairies southward into the western CONUS. The trough will advance
eastward through Monday, especially its northern extent. This will
flatten the upper high/ridging, suppressing it southward, while
the surface high slips eastward. The advancing trough will also
support a surface cold front which will be passing southeast
through the Midwest during the short term period. Flow between the
departing surface high and the cold front will advect the
moisture northward. This will eventually lead to increasing clouds
for our area during the short term period. While a few showers
won`t completely be ruled out on Monday (mainly in our western
counties), the probability is still a bit too low for inclusion in
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 452 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

An upper level trough and an associated surface cold front will be
approaching from the northwest as the long term period starts.
They will slowly make their way across our area Monday night
through Wednesday. Gulf moisture will begin to make its way into
the region as the system approaches and should result in showers
and perhaps thunderstorms, with the POP peaking on Tuesday night.

The heart of the upper trough will depart to the east and cooler
air will arrive behind the surface cold front Wednesday and
Thursday. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs are expected
to move southeast toward the southeast CONUS and consolidate into
a closed upper low over the southeast CONUS on Saturday. The ECMWF
and GFS both agree on the late week scenario, but sill have
differences in the details. That being the case, there is still
uncertainty regarding shower potential, and a prolonged low POP
has been used at times Thursday through Saturday. The latest GFS
also has some precip on Sunday, and if this holds the POP may need
to be extended in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

Fog will bring localized VLIFR conditions in valley locations
early this morning and again late tonight, especially in southeast
kentucky. It is not likely to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds are forecast through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL