845
FXUS63 KJKL 021935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across
  the area through Thursday, with the highest probabilities
  immediately ahead of a cold front on Thursday.

- Widespread rainfall totals between 0.5 to 1.0 inches is likely
  with locally higher totals up to 1.5 inches are possible in the
  Cumberland River basin.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the period, and
  the coolest low temperatures are forecast next weekend behind a
  secondary cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue at mid-afternoon
across most locations east of I-75 and more scattered to the west
around Lake Cumberland. Temperatures are seasonable for early
September, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s outside of
convection and generally in the 70s at locations recently impacted
by convection. The latest analysis shows a surface trough nearly
parallel to the southern shore of the Ohio River from Huntington,
WV west southwestward into the Jackson Purchase while an upper
level trough axis extends southward across the eastern CONUS from
a ~572 dam low (situated just north of Lake Ontario). Immediately
south of the surface trough axis, the SPC mesoanalysis shows
~500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across all of eastern Kentucky except in
the far northeast where there is less. PWATs are seasonably moist
at 0.8 to 1.3 inches, northeast to southwest. It is within this
warm, moist, and moderately unstable, uncapped air mass that we
find the ongoing convection.

This unsettled weather pattern will continue through the duration
of the short-term forecast period. The 500 hPa low continues to
lift northward and is eventually absorbed by a much more potent
northern stream 500 hPa low digging southward from northern
Canada. At the surface, the trough over the Lower Ohio River will
slowly dissipate tonight. Meanwhile, two perturbations riding
through the upper-level trough will pass through the area over the
next 24 hours: one this evening and overnight, and another during
the day on Wednesday. After the diurnally induced convection
diminishes this evening, the disturbance will keep spotty
convection in the forecast overnight, especially closer to the
Virginia-Kentucky border. There will then be a renewed threat of
convection on Wednesday, coincident with the passage of the next
upper-level disturbance. After a lull for most of Wednesday
evening/night, a third disturbance embedded in the flow aloft
could bring a renewed threat of convection toward daybreak on
Thursday, especially closer to the I-64 corridor. While rainfall
could be briefly heavy with the stronger convection, abnormally
dry to moderate drought antecedent conditions and only seasonable
moisture levels in the atmosphere will strongly mitigate high
water concerns.

In sensible terms, look for hit-and-miss showers and
thunderstorms with briefly heavy rainfall possible. The most
widespread activity is expected during the afternoon to mid-
evening hours. The focus for the most widespread activity through
this evening appears to be mainly southwest of US-421, whereas the
focus for most of the convection on Wednesday appears to be east
of the Escarpment. Rainfall amounts could vary dramatically over
just a few miles from little or nothing up to 1 to 2 inches in
the heavier shower and thunderstorms activity. Outside of the
aforementioned prime peak heating hours, an isolated shower or
storm cannot be ruled out at other times, though many places will
stay dry. Temperatures will be seasonable as well with highs
primarily in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid 50s to
around 60. Fog is probable tonight in the sheltered river valleys
and in at least some areas that see rainfall this afternoon and
evening. Fog potential is less certain on Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 451 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

The start of the long-term period will feature the forecast area in
the midst of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms are forecast
to continue overnight Wednesday into Thursday before FROPA occurs on
Thursday afternoon. Behind the exiting front, a surface high-
pressure system will build into the region. However, as another
perturbation tracks through a closed circulation, another system
will track from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes for Friday and
linger into Saturday. The two systems are forecast to Fujiwhara over
southern Canada and remain mostly stationary through the early part
of the weekend. The second system will bring a renewed threat for
showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday afternoon and persisting
through Saturday morning before the front exits on Saturday.

While the area will experience multiple rounds of showers and storms
throughout both the short- and long-term periods, the ground is
currently experiencing drought conditions and can handle multiple
rounds of showers; therefore, significant hydrological issues are
not expected.

The period will be marked by multiple upper-level disturbances that
will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity from
Wednesday through early Saturday morning. Several fronts will move
through the region, the first late Wednesday night and again late
Friday night. Temperatures will remain nearly seasonal, with highs
in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid-
50s. Behind the final front, below-average temperatures and dry
weather will build into the region for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed at TAF issuance
time and are leading to localized brief reductions in visibility
and/or ceilings. This activity will continue to increase in
coverage through the afternoon. The most widespread convection is
favored to occur near and west of I-75 with the least amount of
activity near and east of US-23. Convection will diminish later
this evening, allowing for some fog to develop, especially in the
favored in river valleys, though some impacts cannot be ruled out
at TAF terminals that experience rainfall this afternoon/evening.
The SME and LOZ TAF sites have the greatest opportunity for
experiencing convection through mid-evening while that threat is
lowest at SJS. Another round of showers and storms may develop
late tonight into early Wednesday morning but may be favored to
stay largely southeast of the terminals. Winds will be light and
variable, except the potentially for briefly gusty winds with
convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON