315
FXUS62 KKEY 291601
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1201 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms expected today and tonight
  as an unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week.

- Mainly light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue
  through the weekend, though occasional periods of moderate
  breezes will occur.

- The Remnants of Dolly remain East of the Leeward Islands and do
  not currently pose a threat to the Florida Keys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are moving across the
coastal waters of the Florida Keys this morning and at times also
impacting the Island Chain. Storm motions have generally been
around 15 kts in a west-northwesterly direction given the mean
directional wind profile of 100 degrees in the 1000-700 mb layer.
The 12Z KEY RAOB sampled a PWAT of 2.02 inches with a fair amount
of the moisture depth concentrated in the low-levels as low RH
values were calculate at 84% as opposed to mid RH values at 57%.
Additionally, there`s plenty of instability for the atmosphere to
work with as SBCAPE values were noted in excess of 4000 j/kg and
coupled with virtually no inhibition, the expectation for the
remainder of the day is that this activity will continue to stream
across the region in occasional waves as moisture depth will be
increasing even slightly further. Meanwhile, recent satellite
imagery shows a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a MCV
from the remnants of earlier convection offshore of northern Cuba
and approximately 100 miles to the SW of Andros Island. This
feature may just fizzle out throughout the day but if it can hold
together enough, it may be able to be another source for
additional activity later today. Regardless, this feature is
embedded within broad cyclonic flow aloft associated with a mid-
level inverted trough stretching from the Caribbean northward to
The Bahamas, and this should result in just enough synoptic
contribution across the Keys to keep PoPs slightly higher than
climatological averages for the remainder of the day. Otherwise,
highs should reach around 90 this afternoon but may be able to
reach a couple degrees higher if some locations miss out on the
quick moving shower activity today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
CIMSS products is FINALLY starting to show the pattern changing a
bit across the Lower 48. The ridge that has been just south of
the Four Corners region is beginning to build and slide east-
northeastward across the central United States. Meanwhile, the
ridge over the Atlantic has slid a little farther to the southwest
and also flexed its muscles a little further westward closer to
the Eastern Seaboard. In between these two, the mean layer trough
that has been in place is beginning to lift northward with it
mainly across the northeastern United States for the time being
with the center of the trough located over southeastern Hudson
Bay, Canada. At the surface, the western periphery of the Atlantic
ridge remains across the Florida Keys this morning. This is
promoting east to southeast breezes near 10 knots as a result.
GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated
PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches across the Keys with even deeper
moisture sitting over the Northwest Bahamas. KBYX radar has been
active all night with showers and thunderstorms throughout the
area, especially the westernmost portions of the Keys.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 80s and dew
points are in the upper 70s.

.FORECAST...
The unsettled pattern is expected to continue today with no end in
sight for the rainier regime. The main picture will continue to
feature the Atlantic ridge with its western periphery extending
westward into the Keys for the next several days. Moisture
undulations will continue to rotate around this ridge with the
next moisture plume waiting in the wings, currently over Andros
Island. Therefore, based on the increasing moisture as well as the
mesoscale models showing this moving into the area today, PoPs
have been increased back to 50%. This also still may be too low
and may need to be increased later this morning depending on what
current radar imagery looks like as we head towards sunrise. This
is expected to continue through the weekend with 50% for tonight
and Sunday as well. The caveat for tonight is while there might
still be a shower or storm, most of the activity on latest
guidance suggests later in the overnight bleeding into the morning
hours Sunday. Slightly drier air may move into the Keys to start
the week, 40% advertised for Monday and Monday night, though,
this is expected to be short-lived. Another surge of increasing
moisture is expected as we head towards the middle of next week.

With that said, the forecast beyond Tuesday night/Wednesday of
next week gets rather interesting and is warranting a talking
point here now. Of course, we are all watching what was Tropical
Storm Dolly which is now the remnants of Dolly trekking westward.
This is where we start to scratch our heads and is making for a
particularly tricky forecast for the middle to latter half of next
week. There is tremendous uncertainty as to what happens with
this as it moves westward and we are going to leave this right
there. The key takeaways for right now are to anticipate an
increase in moisture equaling higher rain chances, increase in
cloud cover, and slightly cooler temperatures. We will continue to
monitor this over the next several days and provide updates
accordingly.

The Keys will continue to be dominated by the western periphery of
the Atlantic ridge for the next several days. This will continue
to yield to peaking and lulling breezes through the weekend and
into the early to middle part of next week. However, the wind
direction will also follow suit with east to southeast breezes
overnight into the morning hours followed by northeast to east
breezes in the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime highs will
continue to be near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to
mid 80s, cooler in and near shower and storms. Dew points will
remain soupy in the mid to upper 70s. Granted it is going to be
September very soon and Florida will very much live up to its name
for this time of year with daily rain chances.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two
areas for potential tropical cyclone development. The first is
East of the Lesser Antilles (Remnants of Dolly) which has a low or
near 0 percent chance of development in 48 hours and low or 10
percent chance through the next 7 days. Also, across the
Northeastern and North- Central Gulf of America is another area
being watched for potential development. This one also has a low
or near 0 percent chance of development over 48 hours and low or
10% chance of development through the next 7 days. Both of these
areas currently pose no threat to the Keys at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1157 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move to the
northwest across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys on
Saturday and this may result in locally hazardous winds and seas
in the vicinity of this activity. Aside from the thunderstorm
activity, the FLorida Keys remain in the western periphery of an
Atlantic high and this is expected to maintain control for the
next several days. This feature will continue to promote peaking
and lulling breezes. The direction will also shift over the coming
days with east to southeast breezes overnight and in the morning
with northeast to east breezes late afternoon and evening. In
addition, the overall flow will keep deep moisture in place across
the region so daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will
continue throughout the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Widely scattered SHRA and occasional TSRA will move across the
Island Chain terminals throughout the day, which may result in
brief MVFR/IFR conditions at times. Thus, both Island Chain
terminals have a PROB30 TSRA mention today in the event this
activity impacts either of the terminals directly. Outside of any
of the thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions will prevail with
winds out of the ESE around 10 kts, but higher gusts are expected
in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...RG
Aviation/Nowcasts....RG
Data Acquisition.....RG

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