Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
339 FXUS62 KKEY 031748 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1248 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong high pressure will gradually push out into the North Atlantic through the week, supporting an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Moderate to fresh breezes will wax and wane this week, generally peaking during the overnight hours and lulling in the afternoons. Winds will be strongest over the Florida Straits and weakest over the Gulf waters due to cooler waters and the influence of South Florida daytime heating. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for portions of Keys waters, and Advisories are also possible for the Florida Straits. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 Although a few passing showers cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the terminals, especially overnight, VFR conditions will prevail through 18z Tuesday after, with just passing SCT low clouds based between 020-030. Near- surface winds will remain generally out of the northeast to east at 10 to 12 knots, occasionally gusting 18 to 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines posted in the marine zones south of the Island Chain. These may need to be expanded later this week for additional marine zones, and they may also need to be upgraded to Small Craft Advisories at times. From synopsis, a large and robust high centered off of the New England Coast will lumber east southeastward further into the North Atlantic through the remainder of the week. This will usher in a prolonged period of moderate to fresh breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters. Winds will be strongest across the Florida Straits and weakest over the cooler Gulf side waters. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 The broad high near the Atlantic Coast will gradually migrate east southeastward through the remainder of the week. The western flank of this high will continue to linger across the southeastern United States and continue to support moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes. Breezy stretches are likely with winds tending to peak in the evening and lull during the day. Rain chances are expected to remain slight due to a lack of organized forcing and persistent lower to mid level ridging and associated dry layers. An upper southern stream trough is expected to amplify across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean Sea after mid week. The best upper level forcing appears to be well south of our area. Lower level forcing appears to be limited to the ample flux that is already in place. Lower level wind profile is expected have only weak veering and the dry layers will persist through the lower levels. As a result, no significant deviation from slight chance PoPs are expected at this time. Sky cover should increase through this stretch due to mid and upper level cloud decks streaming out of the trough. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest