544
FXUS62 KKEY 031419
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1019 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025
Drenched would be an apt word to describe the environment around
the Florida Keys. The broad environmental pattern that directed
deep layers of moist tropical water across the Florida Keys shows
no signs of stopping. The morning KKEY radiosonde sampled a PWAT
of 2.46", a new daily record. Westerly winds are directing
untapped Gulf moisture and heat across the Gulf and Caribbean into
a synoptic near-stationary boundary across Southern Florida. The
Weather Prediction Center put the Florida Keys under a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today. Considering the
KKEY rain gauge sampled almost an inch of rain yesterday, makes
perfect sense.

Outside of showers, which is a bit of a rarity today, breezes
are rather persistent gentle to moderate westerlies. Copious
amounts of moisture and cloud cover will keep temperatures
below normal for the rest of the afternoon. Shower activity is
expected to diminish tonight following this afternoon`s bouts of
rainfall. However, the overall environmental pattern is not
forecast to break until Saturday, so expect yet more rounds of
showers tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a broad
surface low along a stationary front stretching from the Gulf
eastward to the Florida Peninsula will maintain west to northwest
winds across the Keys marine zones this afternoon and tonight. The
front will remain rooted in place through the next few days,
while the low meanders northeast into the western North Atlantic
promoting southwest to west breezes throughout the week. Abundant
moisture will promote above normal rain and thunder chances
through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025
TAFs at EYW and MTH indicate a prolonged period of VCSH with
occasional TEMPOs highlighting bursts of SHRA at either terminal.
Near showers, expect MVFR to IFR visbilities. Thunderstorms are
possible throughout the TAF period, but not at sufficient coverage
to warrant inclusion at this time. Winds outside of showers will
remain near 10 knot westerlies. Expect frequent amendments for
nearby showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history in 2007, the daily record high
temperature of 95F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for
the warmest temperature ever recorded in September. Temperature
records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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