Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
346 FXUS62 KKEY 090851 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 451 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -An unsettled weather pattern is still in place today as the chance for rainfall is around 70%. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys. The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent bouts of rainfall will support additional flooding over roadways and low lying lots. Coastal flooding will likely continue into the weekend. -Drier air will filter in over the course of the weekend, offering the first taste of Florida Fall to the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Our forecast area is still situated under an unsettled atmosphere. With sparse observations, it is difficult to pinpoint where the trough axis is, but cloud motion as seen on GOES-19 Cloud Top suggests that it is still situated just east of the Florida Straits. Our KBYX radar has been busy detecting scattered showers across the CWA, but radar estimated rainfall totals suggest that most of this activity has only resulted in up to half of an inch of rainfall, but there are also isolated instances of near one inch of rainfall on Storm Total Accumulation. The caveat is that this number may be skewed high if multiple showers pass over the same location, but the takeaway is that the bulk of these showers are more of a nuisance than a hazard. This trough will continue to drag slowly through the area until sometime late Friday night or Saturday. The result will be on and off showers, an occasional, infrequent thunderstorm, and an increase in cloud cover. Background breezes will be light, generally 5 to 10 mph, but any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of interrupting that with gusty and erratic winds. There is some concern regarding areas of flooding along the Keys due to the current King Tide cycle, and the additional water from any moderate to heavier shower could exacerbate flooding on roadways or low lying lots. Use caution when traveling, and allow for additional time in case typical routes become impassable. Over the weekend, a low is expected to develop off of the Carolina coast. Its accompanying trough will dig into the southeastern U.S. and we may see the first cold front of the season. There is still some uncertainty related to how far south the front can make it, but MOS guidance is still hinting at dew points reaching the lower 70s or upper 60s as we enter the new work week. This could be the first taste of Florida Fall for the Keys! && .MARINE... Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect, but mariner may encounter reduced clearance under fixed bridges due to higher high tides. From synopsis, an inverted trough will remain in the vicinity of the Florida Keys marine zones over the next several days, supporting bouts of elevated rain chances. The proximity of the trough to the Keys will maintain generally gentle northeast to east breezes through the end of the work week. A developing area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will drive an early season cold front towards the Keys over the weekend, and also backing winds to the north to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our eastern marine zones late in the weekend into early next week due to the influence of the low pressure system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 VFR conditions will largely prevail at both terminals through the TAF period. However, intermittent showers or a thunderstorm are anticipated throughout the period, though, should be a bit more widespread today than in previous days. Any showers or storm will be capable of reducing CIGs and VIS to MVFR as well as produce gusty winds. Near surface winds will mainly be northeast to east between 5 to 12 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1990, the daily record rainfall of 3.14" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. In 2012, the daily record rainfall of 1.31" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950. OF NOTE At Pennekamp State Park: In 2011, a rainfall of 11.02" was recorded. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 77 86 76 / 70 80 80 60 Marathon 87 77 85 75 / 70 80 80 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest