Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
724 FXUS62 KKEY 081730 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal rain and thunder chances through Tuesday night. - Light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will continue for the next few days. - Bouts of increased rain and thunder chances are possible Wednesday through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Tuesday afternoon. With that said, passing showers and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly in the diurnally favored late overnight and early morning periods. Confidence in timing and lack of coverage warrants leaving mention of VCSH out of the TAFs at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 What led to the current forecast? A robust upper level ridge stretches from the Yucatan into the southeastern United States. That ridge is promoting sinking air over Florida, yet the surface features are messy. Weak waves in the wind flow have been sufficient to generate disorganized showers, plus there are a couple of convective clusters in the Caribbean. However, the pattern is on track to change. The upper level ridge is primed to move west towards Mexico as another ridge becomes more pronounced over the northeastern United States. That ridge would be able to send a more robust surface high from over Ontario and Quebec into the DELMARVA region by mid- week. Thus, the pressure gradient over the Keys would be briefly maintained. Later in the week, ensembles show a deep trough developing over the north central Plains, weakening the upper level ridge over Mexico. How does this translate to weather over the Keys? Breezes are on track to go through a diurnal trend of freshening after sunset and lulling after sunrise through mid-week. At the same time, shower coverage is expected to slowly increase. Once the high pressure system moves into the Atlantic, low to mid level winds would veer southeasterly and direct additional moisture across the Keys. Expect a return to above normal shower coverage during the latter half of the week. This forecast does depend on the surface high descending out of Canada, the upper level ridge moving further west towards Mexico, and the general collapse in the pressure gradient by the end of the week. Tropical environments can and do change rapidly, so check back again before making any plans. Today, at least, enjoy the sunny skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a surface high pressure system centered east of Bermuda will support light to gentle east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through mid- week. A second high pressure system will push into the western North Atlantic by mid- week, maintaining light east to southeast breezes. Rain and thunder chances will be at near-normal levels early in the week, with a potential increase in coverage beyond Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 81 89 80 / 10 20 30 40 Marathon 88 81 88 81 / 10 20 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest