Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
646 FXUS62 KKEY 300231 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1031 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to gentle southwest to west breezes expected overnight, occasionally variable. - Only a slight chance (10% to 20%) of rain and thunder will be in place for the next few days. - While highs will be seasonably warm in the upper 80s through next week, lows will remain warmer than normal, providing little relief from the heat in the overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 CIMSS products shows the Keys remain under the influence of a weak mean layer ridge this evening. At the surface, weak high pressure remains in control. Marine observations platforms surrounding the Keys are recording southwest to west breezes of 5 to 10 knots as a result. KBYX radar has remained active into the evening hours. Earlier, a cloud line remained over the Lower and Middle Keys which produced multiple showers and even a thunderstorm near Sugarloaf Key. MRMS data showed estimated one hourly rainfall amounts earlier of a half to one inch on Sugarloaf Key with generally a quarter of an inch or less for the rest of the Lower and Middle Keys. Additionally, once the cloud line activity fizzled out, showers and a thunderstorm were ongoing across Florida Bay and the Upper Keys. One lone shower continues at this hour to the west of Blackwater Sound. MRMS data showed estimated 3 hourly rainfall amounts of a trace to a quarter of an inch throughout the Upper Keys with an isolated pocket of up to one inch between Route 1/Card Sound and Ocean Reef. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics shows mainly high level cirrus clouds streaming from west to east through the area resulting in partly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows an unstable profile with moist layers between 950 to 900 mb and around 500 to 450 mb. There is fairly stout dry air between the moist layers with more dry air above 450 mb. The wind profile is chaotic and indicative of more of a daytime cloud line regime rather that nighttime activity. Instability is also decent between 1300-1800 J/kg. Also, the PWAT value measured was 2.17 inches which is above the 90th percentile for the date. Outside of any residual boundaries throughout the Keys, expecting a fairly quiet night. However, with the mainly southwest to west flow and plenty of moisture across the region, a few showers may develop from time to time along these remnant boundaries. Therefore, no changes to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure across the area will support light to gentle southeast to south breezes over the next few days, becoming light and variable at times. The nebulous pressure pattern will continue through much of early next week, with near normal rain and thunder chances also expected. A weak frontal boundary may stall near the Keys coastal waters by mid week, supporting an uptick in wind speeds as well as rain chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 VFR conditions are mostly expected at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. However, there remains the possibility of for a few periods of MVFR CIGs through the period, especially during the daylight hours on Saturday. There is the potential for another cloud line during the day. Therefore, a shower or two is possible, mainly during the daytime Saturday. Otherwise, expect mainly light southwest to west breezes, occasionally variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 81 88 81 / 30 10 10 10 Marathon 87 80 87 80 / 30 20 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest