Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
375 FXUS62 KKEY 021932 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 332 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through this evening. As showers lull, only VCSH is included at both locations. Later tonight showers could redevelop into thunderstorms and if/when TEMPOs will be added to account for any VIS/CIG changes. Near surface winds will be southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots. && . PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1046 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 While still a rainy day across the Florida Keys, for the time being, KAMX radar reveals the island chain currently shower free. Elsewhere, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms continue to progress through the distant Straits and deep Gulf waters. Due to an increase in cloud coverage, and showers passing over the island chain earlier this morning, the temperatures on land sit currently in the mid to upper 80s. Across the Reef, winds are northwest at near 10 knots. Going into this afternoon, winds in the Upper Keys are expected to surge as the broad surface low works in tandem with a stationary front over the east coast of Florida. This low and front will remain in place through the next few days, therefore this afternoon surge pattern is forecast to continue,mainly for the Upper Keys through the short term. Shower activity and coverage will pick up this afternoon as the forecast goes from chance of showers to showers likely late this afternoon into the evening. Once again, the pattern is expected through the next few days as the moisture in our area holds over us. && .FORECAST... Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 A broad surface low sits just off the Treasure and Gold Coasts this morning. A stationary front associated with the this low, extends almost due west across south central Florida and over the Gulf Basin. The Florida Keys, which lie to the south of this boundary, continues to see west to northwest winds this hour. Pivoting through this flow are bands of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms. Said stationary boundary should generally stay just to our north. However, a plume of very moist air mass that stretches across the entire length of the Gulf Basin, will move in from the west and slowly begin sliding in. Given its position, it initially may affect the Lower Keys more than the rest of the Keys for today in terms of rain chances. As we go into tonight, that moisture plume will over take the rest of the region. Then it looks like it will just park itself over the Keys for the next several days. The incoming air mass has a projected PWat that is near or exceeds the 90th percentile for this time of year. This means that the air mass is more juiced than usual and could lead to periods of heavy rainfall. That in mind, we have coordinated with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to put the Keys under a Marginal (1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall starting Wednesday. As alluded to, this air mass will remain over the area through the end of the week, along with the stationary boundary. At the same time, we will remain under a broad trough that is stalled along the Eastern Seaboard. While we are not in the direct line of fire for upper level support, we will have some upper level confluence, which will only aid in saturating the entire atmospheric column. This again would further the possibility of potentially heavy, flooding rains at times. By Saturday, the stationary front and upper level trough will begin to make moves to the northeast and lift away from our area. That normally would spell drier conditions, however, lingering out across the southwest North Atlantic is an easterly undulation that will impinge on the region over the weekend. This may keep rain chances above normal through the upcoming weekend. Thereafter it looks like we will return to our more usual easterly flow and near normal rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 1046 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a broad surface low situated along a stationary front sits off the Florida East coast, east of Lake Okeechobee with the Keys lying to the south of this boundary. This is maintaining west to northwest winds across the Florida Keys coastal waters. The low and front will remain rooted in place through the next few days with undulating winds varying between northwest and southwest. Localized wind surges will be possible off the Upper Keys each afternoon starting today and going through Thursday. In addition, abundant moisture will promote above normal rain and thunder chances through the end of the week. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest