Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
446 FXUS62 KKEY 250313 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1013 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will lift eastward into the western Atlantic during the next couple of days, keeping rain chances out of the forecast in the short term. -A pair of developing low pressure systems over the central United States will begin to interact and merge, resulting in a brief surge in breezes Tuesday before slackening midweek. -Probability is increasing that a cold front will push into the Keys region early Friday. Only a modest amount of cooling is expected in the wake of the front. Breezy to windy conditions are possible after frontal passage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Dry season continued unabated across the Keys for the last Monday of November. High temperatures rose above the average temperature of 79 to 80 while dew points peaked in the low 70s. Winds did begin to build across the island chain, and in the Florida Straits breezes freshened to moderate easterlies. Compared to yesterday, cloud cover has increased across the CWA, but skies are still mostly clear. KBYX radar returns still show a nearly rain free sky across the near and offshore waters. Satellite observations, specifically the GOES East nighttime microphysics, highlight shallow stratus clouds south of Marco Island and a stray cirrus cloud. Tonight`s KKEY 00Z sounding was not too surprising given the aforementioned observations. Once again, almost no CAPE existed over Key West. A pair of well developed subsidence inversions will keep shower coverage near nil despite a slight increase in low level moisture. The sampled PWAT rose above the 25th percentile for the day in contrast to yesterday`s value near the 10th percentile. A glance at the Advected Layer PWAT product shows where the moisture is coming from when looking at the surface to 850 mb, and the 850 to 700 mb layers. A plume of slightly more moist air is advecting from Miami`s area to the Keys. The conclusion after looking at these observations is that another rather uneventful night is expected for the Keys. Skies should remain mostly clear, winds out of the east, and dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. Elsewhere in the country, a low pressure system over northeast Texas is developing frontal boundaries over the Deep South. A clipper system is making its way across the Northern Plains. By sunrise, the 500 mb troughs associated with these surface features will be close enough to interact. Keep an eye on the forecast, because a change in the weather pattern is coming. Check back tomorrow for an updated forecast! && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a continental high will gradually push offshore over the next couple of days, resulting in freshening northeast to east breezes. While the center of this high progresses eastward into the western North Atlantic, breezes will collapse by midweek and the pressure field will become nebulous. Probability is increasing that a cold front will push southward through the Florida Keys coastal waters later this week before stalling, resulting in what appears to be the start of a prolonged period of freshened northeast to easterly breezes through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH for the 00Z TAF period. Near surface winds are slightly near 10 knots out of the east southeast. Skies are mostly clear, and any cloud bases are forecast to remain above FL025. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 73 82 74 82 / 0 10 10 20 Marathon 74 81 74 81 / 0 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest