Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
470
FXUS62 KKEY 130944
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
444 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will persist through the
 remainder of the week and into the weekend, with winds peaking in
 the overnight to early morning hours and lulling in the
 afternoons.

-Temperatures will trend up to near or slightly below normal by
 the end of the week as high pressure, centered over the
 northeastern Gulf coast, weakens and stretches eastward into the
 Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 444 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025
It has been pleasant overnight going into this early morning for
the Florida Keys. KBYX continues to remain shower-free, though
Nighttime Microphysics depicts mostly cloudy skies for most of
south Florida and the Keys. Temperatures across the island chain
are currently near 70F. Observations along the Reef show the
overnight surge is ongoing with wind speeds being recorded at 15
to 20 knots. Winds are expected to slightly slacken with Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution until Winds Decrease headlines for
the Hawk Channel, while the Straits of Florida will remain
elevated later into the day. Stable and dry conditions will keep
the rain chances at near nil.

The remainder of the week`s weather across the Florida Keys will
continue to be dominated by a post-frontal high pressure in the
northeast Gulf. In the wake of this cold front earlier this week,
cooler and breezier northeasterly flow has settled over the
region, but as the high gradually extends eastward and weakens,
winds will ease and temperatures will rebound to more typical for
this time of year. Aloft, an upper level ridge over the
southeastern US will promote stability and suppress a majority of
shower development resulting in mainly dry and mostly sunny
conditions. With the high still influencing our current weather,
breezes will remain moderate to occasionally fresh in the
overnight and morning hours before slackening in the afternoon for
the next few days. Daytime highs will climb from the mid 70s back
to near 80 by the weekend and an minor uptick in moisture will
result in slight rain chances being introduced for late this
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 444 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025
Small Crafts should exercise caution until winds decrease in the
Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida. Elsewhere, no watches,
warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida
Keys. From synopsis, moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will
lull to gentle to moderate in the late morning and afternoon each
day through Saturday. Thereafter, high pressure across the
Southeast U.S. will gradually sink across or just north of the
Florida Keys. This feature will also weaken such that the coastal
waters surrounding the Keys, or at least portions, will become
light and variable Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure will
then lift northward and gradually strengthen, allowing for a slow
freshening of breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 444 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025
VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Near
surface winds will be out of the north to northeast at near 10 knots
with occasional gusts to near 15 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1954, 17.05" fell in Key West (no tropical
cyclones were in the area), the second-wettest day on record.
Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest