Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
908 FXUS62 KKEY 150210 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1010 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to slightly-above normal rain chances in the short term is expected to give way to considerably higher rain chances later in the work week. - Winds are expected to trend upwards over the next several days, likely peaking in the moderate to fresh range around mid week. - Heat index values will range from 100-108 degrees daily, with little relief from the muggy conditions overnight. Know the signs of heat stress, take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Weather proved to be somewhat tame across the Florida Keys this Monday evening. A cloud line was able to develop and generate rainfall south of the Lower Keys before sunset, but otherwise meteorological echoes on KBYX have been sparse. Popcorn cumulus are able to bubble across the Florida Straits. Otherwise, the most notable feature on radar were the birds taking off to fly south just after sunset. Satellite observations from GOES East are slightly difficult to read. The Nighttime Microphysics product looks a very dark blue because of the high amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Only a couple of cumulus clouds and cirrus clouds were observed over the Keys waters. The 00Z KKEY sounding provides the evidence as to why. The sampled PWAT was near the 90th percentile for the day. So why are showers struggling to form? Based off the winds from the KKEY sounding, winds are backing with height in the lower altitudes. Environmental flow this evening is not very supportive of convection. Showers may be able to form during the overnight hours across the Florida Keys. While winds across the reef are light and variable this evening, a shift to light to gentle east to southeasterlies is expected overnight. Localized wind speed convergence may provide enough lift to get showers near the island chain. However, the forcing remains light. A comparison with statistical guidance suggests shower coverage will be on the lower side. Tonight, expect humid conditions with light winds. Enjoy the calmer conditions while they last, because the weather is on track to get much more complicated mid-week. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys offshore or nearshore waters. From synopsis: light and variable winds will start to freshen and veer easterly tonight. Breezes will continue to gradually freshen out of the northeast to east over the next few days as a continental high builds southward towards our area. Expect breezes to peak in the moderate range late Tuesday and late Wednesday. Near normal rain chances will trend considerably upwards through mid week as broad troughing and increasing moisture moves in from the east. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at MTH and EYW this TAF period. Variable surface winds will veer east southeasterly after midnight. Showers may be able to form as the winds shift, but there is low confidence in the timing and location. Thus, VCSH is left in the TAFs. Showers are more likely after sunrise, but not enough to include SHRA at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 92 81 91 / 30 30 50 50 Marathon 82 90 82 89 / 30 40 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest