781
FXUS62 KKEY 240853
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
453 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and minor to moderate
  coastal flooding in the Lower to Middle Keys is ongoing,
  especially around high tide.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected from today through
  early next week. Near-gale breezes will be possible at times
  Sunday evening through Monday evening, especially SE Gulf.

- Little to any relief in significant coastal and marine impacts
  are expected into at least the middle of next week. Residents
  and visitors should take the necessary actions to protect flood-
  prone property.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 453 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
CIMSS products shows an interesting pattern across the Lower 48
early this morning. The pattern resembles the Greek letter Omega
because it takes that shape. An upper level trough has been
anchored across the western United States with a ridge dominating
much of the rest of the country with another upper level trough
anchored over the Bahamas, Hispaniola, and Cuba. We can thank this
pattern for the prolonged period of breezy to windy, potentially
very windy conditions over the next few days. At the surface, low
pressure continues to try and develop across the Bahamas along
with a large sprawling high pressure system centered across the
Northeast United States. Marine observations platforms surrounding
the Island Chain are recording northeasterly breezes to near 20
knots along with frequent gusts to near 25 knots. KBYX radar has
been active all night with most of the activity impacting the
Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf waters surrounding and
including the Dry Tortugas. Safe to say, the Island Chain dodged a
bullet tonight because this activity has been slow moving and
MRMS estimated rainfall amounts show anywhere from 2 to 6 inches
occurring in some sections of the distant Straits. Some of the
activity has also been intense requiring numerous Special Marine
Warnings throughout the night. Temperatures along the Island Chain
are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
The omega block pattern across much of the United States is
expected to remain in place today and tonight. At the surface, low
pressure will continue to fester and try to organize to the east
over or near the Bahamas. An upper level trough will continue to
swing through the Keys which actually should end the current
ongoing activity across the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf early
this morning. Any showers and thunderstorms today and tonight
should mainly remain across the eastern portions of the area out
to the Bahamas and south towards Cuba. Current guidance suggests
the Island Chain remaining dry for the next 24 hours outside of
perhaps some sprinkles maybe this afternoon or a brief passing
light shower. Breezy conditions will continue today and tonight as
the low continues to fester near/over the Bahamas and the high
across the Northeast U.S. remains anchored in place. This will
keep a strengthened pressure gradient across the area. Outside of
that, temperatures will remain comfortable in the lower 80s and
overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 453 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys
coastal waters today. From synopsis, strengthening high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic region will interact with a
developing disturbance in the eastern Caribbean, supporting
freshening northeasterly breezes over the next several days. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine
zones. Breezes will peak Sunday night through Tuesday, when strong
to near gale breezes will be possible. The freshening breezes and
a surge of moisture may also support elevated rain and
thunderstorm chances through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH
terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain
north to northeast and remains gusty through the period. In
addition, while showers and thunderstorms are effecting the Keys
forecast area, current thinking is that most of this activity
remains west and south of the Island Chain over the marine area.
Therefore, VCSH was not included in the TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1943, the daily record rainfall of 1.60" was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to
1871. Also, on this day in 1971, the daily record rainfall of
1.82" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date
back to June 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  74  82  75 /  10  10  20  40
Marathon  81  73  82  74 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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