719
FXUS62 KKEY 251501
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1101 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively drier conditions briefly make a return for today and
  tonight.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for
  some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper
  Keys.

- A trough is expected to develop and sit along the eastern and
  southeast U.S., which may result in an active weather pattern
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
KBYX radar looks a lot different than 24 hours ago. At this time,
only a few light showers are lingering in the distant Straits, and
beyond that skies are mostly sunny! Temperatures across the island
chain are nearing 90F with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
making for another hot summer day. Along the Reef, winds are
southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots. Not too much is expected today as
we are in a col region. Winds will become light and variable this
afternoon and shower chances will remain slight through tonight.
As a surface trough develops on Sunday, rain chances will increase
and winds will freshen to gentle breezes and become west to
northwest. Enjoy the beautiful day and stay hydrated!

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 453 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A somewhat active start to the overnight with multiple outflow
boundaries intermittently becoming active. The last vestiges of
these showers have moved northwest into the Southeastern Gulf
waters with only a few isolated stragglers in the eastern Straits
and Florida Bay. Otherwise, a col is beginning to take shape in
the wake of the easterly wave we had yesterday. This is leading to
gradually declining winds from the east to southeast.

The best chances to seeing showers or even an isolated
thunderstorm will mainly be this morning. Thereafter, relatively
drier air will move in and winds will become light and variable,
making it more difficult for mass to bump into each other.
Beginning Sunday, a surface trough will begin taking shape and
gradually building south across the Florida Peninsula, including
the Florida Keys.

As this surface trough develops, the base will settle across the
Florida Keys. As a results winds will back out of the west to
northwest across the waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge, while
becoming southwest to west elsewhere. These southwest to west
winds could set up the Middle and Upper Keys for a reverse cloud
line during the afternoon on Sunday. Even if cloud lines develop
but do not fire off any convection, it will essentially pre-seed
the atmosphere.

The trough is expected to stall and hold generally in place across
the Keys into early next week. It is becoming increasingly likely
that we will be entering a more active weather pattern.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a col will develop across
the region today, leading to a brief period of light and variable
winds through this evening. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to
gentle breezes and back to the west to northwest as a surface
trough develops Sunday. Breezes will return from the southwest and
west as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early next
week. There is growing confidence of a return to an active
weather pattern starting Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Shower activity will be limited today therefore no mention
of VCSH necessary at either terminal. Near surface southeast winds
at 5 to 10 knots will become variable later this afternoon.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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