Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
245 FXUS62 KKEY 301932 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 332 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Major coastal flooding is expected again overnight, and a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for all of the Florida Keys. Coastal flooding will gradually decrease over the weekend, but receding rates may be slow, especially in the Upper Keys. - Gentle to occasionally moderate northeasterly breezes may see an uptick by Saturday evening, but an extended period of windy conditions similar to last weekend is very unlikely. - There is increasing confidence in a wet, stormy period from Saturday Night through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Stubborn cloud cover defined weather across the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon. While cloud cover dissipated over the Middle Keys shortly after 12 PM, skies remain broken to overcast across parts of the Lower Keys. Temperatures remained on the lower end for the Lower Keys, but the Upper Keys have observed temperatures rising into the upper 80s. Breezes along the reef continue to oscillate between light to gentle and gentle to moderate. Radar wise, very few if any meteorological echoes are present on KBYX returns. The weather pattern is rather stagnant across the Keys tonight. It is unlikely we will see a significant change in the next 12 hours, so a persistence forecast is apt. While quieter weather is preferred for anyone planning early Halloween festivities, coastal flooding continues to be the main hazard across the island chain. Another night of tides 2.0 to 2.3 feet above normal high tide looks likely, thus the Coastal Flood Warning is still in effect across the Keys. Remember to take precautions and plan around the time of peak tides! Two features are expected to phase together this weekend. First, an upper level trough over south Texas will make its way across the Gulf towards the Keys. This piece of vorticity will be able to bring additional upper level moisture to South Florida on Sunday to Monday. The second feature is a developing high pressure system over the eastern US. Broad ridging is building over the east half of the continent, and the surface reflection is expected to center itself over New England by Sunday. Recent statistical model runs suggest moderate to fresh breezes are possible Sunday to Monday. Low level wind speed convergence from the freshening breezes would provide the lift and the upper level trough would supply the moisture. Currently, we expect likely showers with a chance of thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. The main concern from this potential bout of rainfall will be coastal flooding. While tides are on track to slowly recede this week, any amount of localized heavy rainfall will exacerbate flooding problems. Rainfall associated with this system is not expected to be organized as part of a frontal boundary, so impacts are likely to be heavily localized. A drier period is expected to set up across the Keys to start early November. The Texas trough will moves off into the Atlantic and ridging will build over the western Gulf. A period of rather uneventful weather is expected for the Florida Keys through mid- week. Model ensembles do, however, show a possible frontal boundary moving across the Keys late next week. While a weather feature of some sort is expected, there is low confidence in what specifically will move across the Keys. Model ensembles from the GFS and ECMWF both washed out the feature because individual members showed very different solutions. Current forecasts assume this feature would be identified as a cold front. Regardless, there is a lot of uncertainty with next weekend`s forecast. We will have a better idea of what this front will do at the start of next week, so check back after early November`s round of showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. However, significantly higher than normal high tides will result in reduced clearance under fixed bridges around times of high tide, so mariners are encouraged to keep that in mind. From synopsis: A high pressure system is developing over the eastern half of the United States. The high will be able to support moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys waters this weekend, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be required for all the marine zones. While the pressure gradient will not be sufficient to keep moderate to fresh breezes for the entire weekend, northerly swell from the Atlantic Ocean will keep waves elevated through the early part of the week. Shower chances will peak Sunday through Monday. Drier conditions will set up mid week, and breezes are on track to slacken to light to gentle. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 MVFR CIGs were persistent at EYW and MTH due to low level stratus clouds near both terminals. While CIGs lifted near MTH, EYW will oscillate between VFR and MVFR conditions. Showers are very unlikely near both terminals. MVFR CIGs are possible to redevelop near both EYW and MTH in the early morning hours. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1910, the daily record low temperature of 59F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest temperature ever recorded in October. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 85 77 84 / 30 30 40 50 Marathon 77 86 77 84 / 20 30 50 60 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT tomorrow morning for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....RG Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest