Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
880 FXUS62 KKEY 130907 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 507 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect. Low lying areas will see minor saltwater ponding around the times of high tide. - A weak front remains just north of the Island Chain early this morning. This will lead to low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 CIMSS products shows a mean layer ridge centered over the northwest Gulf, SE Texas, and southern Louisiana early this morning. Downstream of the ridge, a weak front is in place about halfway through the SE Gulf waters of the Florida Keys. It appears the front as of now at least has not made it to the Chain or passed through. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording northeast to east breezes of 10 to 15 knots. Also, temperatures along the Island Chain are still very warm for this time of the night in the lower 80s and dew points are in the upper 70s indicative of frontal passage not having yet occurred. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows a rather interesting setup across the Keys as well as a very clear delineation line to where the drier air and front are located. A narrow plume of greater than 1.9 inch PWATs is estimated across the Island Chain with plenty of dry air seen across the Gulf and much of Florida. In addition, there is another plume of slightly drier PWATs across the Straits of Florida estimated to be between 1.6 to 1.7 inches. KBYX radar has been active for much of the night as a result with much of the activity in the vicinity of the Lower Keys and surrounding nearshore waters. Additional activity has also developed across the Cay Sal Bank and close to the far distant Straits of Florida. .FORECAST... A weak front will remain draped nearby the area today. The front has not yet moved through the Island Chain and there remains the possibility that it does not press through remaining just north across the SE Gulf waters. This will keep moisture across the region for today resulting in slight chances. Slight chances continue for tonight as well. Mean layer ridging across the northwest Gulf along with the weak frontal boundary will continue to promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes, at times moderate breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure remains across the Southeast U.S. and the northern Gulf. An Atlantic ridge continues to weaken and retreat east towards the central Atlantic. In between these two features lies a weak cold front which has stalled across the northern SE Gulf waters of the Keys early this morning. Latest indications are for this front not to pass through the Keys but rather remain just north. This will promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes over the next several days. There will be slight chances to chances for showers and a few thunderstorms over the next few days as this weak and diffuse front remains nearby the area. Late in the week, a strong cold front could develop and move towards the Florida Keys. Currently, there are low chances that the front will make it to the Florida Keys waters. We will continue monitoring this system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 A weak front looks like it has stalled just north of the region across the northern Gulf waters of the Keys. While VFR conditions are largely expected through the TAF period, there remains the risk for showers and thunderstorms nearby either terminal through the TAF period. However, due to timing and placement uncertainty, VCSH was not included in the TAF at this time. Near surface winds will remain northeasterly through the period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record warm low temperature of 84F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, on this day in 1986, the daily record warm low temperature of 82F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 79 87 80 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 87 79 88 80 / 20 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest