484
FXUS62 KKEY 060804
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
404 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal rain chances are expected through the weekend.

- Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes expected over the
  next few days.

- Near normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The long week of ridiculous rainfall has finally drawn to a close
with this afternoons mesoscale convective vortex in the Lower
Keys. All island locations received a healthy dose of rainfall
through the week with some locations receiving excessive amounts
in the 6 to 8 inch range. After zero precipitation echoes through
much of the overnight, only a few showers have sprouted over the
distant Florida Straits.

The boundary layer is tapped out. In addition, a broad surface
through lower level high centered near the Carolina Coast is
driving drier near 70 dew points across the Keys on gentle to
moderate easterlies. Sharp ridging has built northeastward across
the Gulf and the southeastern States and drier air is beginning to
filter in through the mid and upper levels. With that said, the
lower levels remain quite moist and inhibition is essentially non
existent. All this means that while shower and thunderstorm
activity cannot be ruled out, their probabilities are
significantly lower than in the past several days.

The gentle to moderate easterlies will persist over the next few
days as the Carolina high steadily pushes out into the Atlantic
trailing a ridge across the Gulf Coast. Surface temperatures and
dew points will be near normal with highs in the upper 80s, lows
near to slightly above 80, and dew points recovering into the mid
70s. Much drier air will remain through the mid and upper levels
with ridging dominant. CAPE will be modest and inhibition will
remain weak to non existent. This warrants at least a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Through the first half of the week, broad troughing will push
westward through the northern Caribbean Sea. While slightly
weaker, there will be enough gradient between this migrating
trough and the ridge to our north to maintain gentle to moderate
easterlies. Continued dry air will keep shower and thunder chances
near normal. This may change heading into mid week however. The
trough will bring increasing low level moisture confluence.
Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave trough will take shape over
the central Gulf of America. This may result in moistening through
the mid and upper levels as well. As a consequence, rain and
thunder chances may rise considerably above normal around mid
week. A lot of things have to fall into place for this to happen,
but for now, global models are in rough agreement. This could
easily change in the next couple of days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A broad surface high centered just off the Atlantic coast will
slowly advance eastward into the Atlantic over the next couple of
days. Easterly breezes will remain gentle to moderate through this
period. Winds should come down slightly through the early part of
the week as weak ridging hangs on to our north and broad troughing
pushes westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Heading
into mid week there is the potential for freshening southeasterly
breezes and increased moisture as the broad troughing moves across
the Yucatan. Rain chances are also expected to pick up noticeably.
With that said, there is substantial uncertainty in the long range
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface
winds will be gentle to moderate easterlies.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....DR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest