346
FXUS62 KKEY 070901
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
501 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A moisture surge will support scattered rain and thunderstorm
  chances into midweek.

- The primary threat for any stronger thunderstorms will be
  dangerous lightning strikes. When thunder roars, go indoors. If
  on a boat, stay low, or go below.

- Heat index values will range from 100-105 degrees daily, with
  little relief in the muggy conditions overnight. Know the signs
  of heat stress, take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 501 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026
A mostly uneventful night into early morning for KBYX as only a
few light scattered showers have been detected in the offshore
waters. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s
making for little relief from the day time highs of near 90.
According to Nighttime Microphysics skies are partly cloudy.
Marine observations across the Reef are reporting light and
variable winds. Today is expected to be similar to the past few
days as deep tropical moisture continues to linger in the region.
MIMIC Precipitable Water is showing around 2.2 inches surrounding
our area. Models suggest activity will ramp up in the early to mid
morning. A afternoon cloud line development is possible as light
variable winds remain light and become southeasterly.

By mid week, the elevated rain chances we have been experiencing
for the past few days will return to near normal as high pressure
starts to build in. High pressure will also result in a slight
freshening of breezes with mid week with periods of gentle to
moderate breezes with the possibility of at times fresh. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are not expected at this time. Stay
tuned for any updates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 501 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, light to gentle southeast
breezes will prevail through mid week, as weak steering flow
persists across the region. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to
gentle to moderate, as high pressure builds in. Waves of low-level
moisture pushing across the Keys will support elevated rain and
thunder chances through Tuesday, possibly returning to near normal
by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Shower activity is possible in the early morning hours
therefore VCSH has been included and TEMPOs will be added if
direct impact is expected. Near surface winds will be light and
variable becoming southeasterly by the afternoon.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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