810
FXUS62 KKEY 011745
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
145 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor to moderate saltwater flooding of low elevation streets
  will continue through Friday morning. Don`t drive through
  flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed
  bridges.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters of the
  Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf, and Small Craft Should
  Exercise Caution in all other waters.

- A wet pattern will continue through Friday. Rain and thunder
  chances will decrease over the weekend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
Bouts of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
progress through the terminals at times through at least 00z this
evening. Bouts of IFR CIGs and VISs can be expected with any
stronger storm, along with strong gusts out of the southeast.
Coverage is expected to wane thereafter, although there is a lack
of confidence in storm regeneration late in the TAF period after
06z. Outside of any storms, southeasterly surface winds will still
occasionally gust to near 20 knots at the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
The radar has remained quite active across the Florida Keys and
surrounding waters this morning. While there have been very few
thunderstorms due to the saturated atmospheric profile, showers
moving north-northwest around 25 knots have been efficient wind
producers with several 30-40 knot gusts measured by surrounding
surface and marine observation sites along the Island Chain. The
initial surge of activity has lifted northward beyond our waters,
but additional development has begun in the Straits of Florida.
This seemingly will be the theme over the next couple of days as
enhanced low-level winds combines with deep moisture across the
region to support periods of scattered to widespread showers and
occasional thunderstorms. Will maintain Likely PoPs across much of
the area today, and see no need to make changes to that portion
of the forecast. The enhanced pressure gradient is supporting
moderate to fresh breezes across our waters. The Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the Straits of Florida through
tonight and has been expanded to include the southeastern Gulf
waters. Small craft should exercise caution in the remaining
marine zones, generally excluding the Florida Bay. Additionally,
the Coastal Flood products will remain in effect for at least
another tidal cycle. Although tidal anomalies are beginning to
slowly decrease, predicted peaks remain at similar levels to the
past few high tides, so minor to moderate saltwater flooding of
low-elevation streets/lots along the Keys is expected to continue
during high tide at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Straits of Florida
and southeastern Gulf. In the remaining marine zones, small craft
should exercise caution through at least tonight. Periods of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will move towards the north-
northwest around 15 to 20 knots, occasionally producing locally
hazardous winds and seas.

From synopsis, high pressure offshore of the Eastern Seaboard
will merge with an existing region of high pressure across the
subtropical Atlantic, and subsequently build through the end of
the week. Moderate to fresh breezes are expected to continue
across the Florida Keys waters through tonight. Widespread Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will be necessary through
at least this evening while a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. In addition, a
very wet pattern will remain across the Keys over the next couple
days, resulting in periods of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for GMZ033-034-
     052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DM
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....DM

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