Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
721 FXUS62 KKEY 251717 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1217 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Easterly breezes will support a slight chance of rainfall in the short term. -The Thanksgiving holiday will serve as a turning point in our weather pattern, as a cold front marches down the Florida Peninsula, pushing through our area late Thursday into Friday. -The front is expected to linger across the area through the first half of the weekend, and will lead to a period of breezy to windy conditions. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 Although a few passing showers cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the terminals, especially in the second half of the forecast period, expected coverage and limited impacts to visibilities and ceilings warrants keeping out of the TAFs at this time. Near- surface winds will remain generally out of the east to southeast near 10 knots, modestly slackening after 00z this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 936 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, ridging extending across the Florida Peninsula will continue to gradually pull away over the next couple of days. As this happens, the pressure field across the area will weaken, and our gentle to moderate easterly breezes will become light to gentle by Wednesday morning. These conditions won`t last long, as a cold front associated with a deepening trough will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters late on Thursday. Breezes will freshen drastically late Thursday as the front approaches, and the end of the week will see a period of fresh to strong breezes, along with an increase in shower activity. Small Craft Advisories may be required as early as Thursday night, then lasting through at least Sunday. && .FORECAST... Issued at 529 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 Conditions will change drastically over the Thanksgiving holiday. As the ridging in place pulls farther away, a trough digging into the southeastern U.S. will send a cold front down the Florida peninsula. Breezes will back from the east to the north ahead of the front during the day on Thursday, and breezy to windy conditions will move in as the front arrives later that night. There is still lower confidence related to when shower activity will initiate as the global models continue to project higher PoPs earlier on the holiday whereas the NBM is still showing lower PoPs well after dinnertime. Regardless of the finer details related to sensible weather, this cold front is going to bring a dish of cooler air with some rainfall on the side. Be sure to secure your dinner plate, so it doesn`t blow away! The front is still expected to stall somewhere in the vicinity of our southern waters, resulting in slightly elevated PoPs and breezy to windy conditions carrying on into the weekend. Temperatures will feel a little more festive as highs will range from the mid to upper 70s, and overnight lows may bottom out in the mid to upper 60s. When the front decays near the end of the weekend, higher pressure will be able to build back in and seasonable, drier conditions will have the opportunity to return. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest