Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
254 FXUS62 KKEY 071423 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1023 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes will prevail, peaking overnight and lulling during the day. - Above-normal shower and thunder chances will continue this afternoon and tonight. - Rain chances will trend towards near or below normal by early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds across the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1023 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 The first weekend of August opened a bit less active across the Florida Keys waters compared to yesterday morning. KBYX radar returns show showers and stray thunderstorms are mostly forming over the Florida Straits as opposed to near the island chain. Showers have also been less energetic with fewer lightning strikes. That does not mean the environment is not primed for showers and thunderstorms. The morning KKEY sounding sampled an environmental PWAT over 2 inches with little to no inhibition to shower development. Winds and associated dynamical effects appear to be the limits to shower formation today. Upper altitude divergence is decreasing across the Florida Keys while a low level trough axis transits over the island chain. Overall, expecting shower coverage to increase later today once the trough moves west of the island chain and the environment heats up. Plus, if northeasterly winds linger across the Lower Keys, a short lived cloud line may be able to form. Thus, opting to keep inherited shower chances at 50 percent for the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, winds will relax today due to the combination of the usual day time lull and a lower level pressure trough workings it way westward across Florida and the Keys. Expect mostly gentle northeast to easterly breezes today swinging back to easterly tonight. A wet pattern continues and spells of sub VFR conditions will be possible, along with thunderstorms and strong gusty winds. Thereafter, the ridge will remain across northern Florida and keep mainly gentle to moderate easterly breezes. Expect sizable fluctuations in wind speeds, tending lull during the day and peaking overnight. Along with transitioning to a more climatological regime, rain chances should trend towards near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with a higher chance in the afternoon and evening. Near surface winds outside of showers are on track to remain below 10 knots and shift from northeasterlies to southeasterlies. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 The wet weather pattern will remain across the Keys today into tonight, but possibly with slightly lower expected coverage. The steering currents is expected to be weaker today as the lower level trough advects westward through the Keys. However, precipitable water is expected to remain close to 2 inches with only a small amount drying through the lower levels and inhibition should remain limited. Additionally, CAMS continues to project further rounds of convection spanning at least today into tonight. For this reason, will maintain high chance PoPs, which is above both seasonal norms and all statistical guidance. Highs will remain up near 90 with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will range broadly in the lower 80s and highly dependent on convective influences. A shift to drier conditions is expected to finally build in late tonight and into this weekend as the lower level trough shoves west of our area, and deep layered Atlantic ridging establishes greater control across our region. Lower to mid level drying should take place with periods of inhibition appearing in forecast soundings. However, CAPE will remain seasonable and quite sufficient to support deeper convection. One period to highlight will be Sunday, where guidance suggests another broad lower level trough, associated with an upper level low in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, will migrate westward across our area. This may lead to a period of marginally higher shower and thunderstorm chances. Otherwise, the surface ridge will remain aligned across northern Florida and Gulf well into next week and maintain winds ranging from gentle to moderate. Expect wind tendency to be lulling during the day and peaking overnight. No trend in temperatures are expected with highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s, and dew points stuck in the mid to upper 70s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 92 84 / 50 40 30 30 Marathon 90 83 90 84 / 40 50 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest