379
FXUS62 KKEY 230856
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
456 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for all Keys waters by
  Saturday morning, persisting through at least early next week.
  Near- gale breezes will be possible at times Sunday evening
  through Monday evening.

- Gusty winds in frequent fast-moving showers will likely push
  through the Keys sometime between tonight and Monday.
  Confidence in timing is very low at this time.

- Moderate coastal flooding in the Upper Keys will expand to the
  Lower and Middle Keys Sunday evening through early next week,
  with major coastal flooding possible in the Upper Keys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
CIMSS products continues to show an amplified and stagnant
pattern across much of the Lower 48. Troughing continues for the
West Coast as well as just off the Eastern Seaboard with a massive
ridge in between these two which continues to dominate much of
the contiguous United States. At the surface, a sprawling area of
high pressure remains centered over the eastern Great Lakes with
the southern side of this ridge stretching southward towards the
Keys. In addition, weak low pressure was starting to develop
across the Bahamas. Marine observation platforms surrounding the
Island Chain are recording north to northeast breezes of 10 to 15
knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products
shows estimated PWATs have increased from this time just 24 hours
ago with values now to be estimated between 1.3 to 1.5 inches.
KBYX radar has been active overnight with most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity remaining over the eastern portions of the
area across the Upper Keys and surrounding nearshore and offshore
waters. MRMS data shows estimated rainfall amounts of a trace to
few tenths of an inch along the Upper Keys with the heaviest
offshore across the eastern Straits where 1.5 to 1.7 inches was
estimated. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to
mid 70s and dew points are in the mid to upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
Weak low pressure will continue to slowly fester over the Bahamas
today and tonight. Meanwhile, a sprawling high pressure system
will continue to strengthen while drifting southeastward across
the Northeast U.S. As these two systems interact with each other,
they will cause the pressure gradient to increase throughout the
Keys leading to freshening breezes, especially tonight. In
addition, moisture will continue to build across the area leading
to increasing rain chances. The deepest moisture is expected to
remain across the Straits and the easternmost portions of the
area, including the Upper Keys where the best chances of showers
remains. However, that is not to say showers or thunderstorms are
not expected elsewhere.

...COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Middle and
Upper Keys. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the
Lower Keys. As we continue to progress through the weekend and
into next week, the tides are expected to continue to rise and
will only be amplified by the prolonged northeasterly breezes we
expect for the coming days. The peak will be towards the middle of
the next week before the tides begin the down trend as we head
into November.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Small Craft Should Exercise (SCEC) is headlined throughout all the
Florida Keys coastal waters, with the exception of the nearshore
waters where until winds decrease is headlined. Small Craft
Advisory likely will be required tonight is headlined for all the
Florida Keys coastal waters, except for Florida Bay where the only
headline is Small Craft Advisory May Be Required tonight. From
synopsis, high pressure centered just north of the Great Lakes
region will continue to slide eastward and strengthen over the
next several days. The high will interact with a developing
disturbance in the eastern Caribbean, supporting freshening
northeasterly breezes over the next several days. Breezes will
peak Sunday night through Tuesday, when strong to near gale
breezes will be possible. The freshening breezes and a surge of
moisture may also support elevated rain and isolated strong
thunderstorm chances Friday night through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
VFR conditions are expected to largely persist for both EYW and
MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will
remain north to northeast this morning before becoming more
northeasterly for the afternoon through the overnight hours. Winds
will also remain gusty through the period with perhaps a brief
lull in the gustiness during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Moisture is increasing across the area early this morning
with chances for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
throughout the TAF period. However, due to timing and placement
uncertainties, VCSH was not included in the TAF. Most of the
activity at this time is expected to either remain south or north
of the Chain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1883, the daily record rainfall of 1.66" was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to
1871.

OF NOTE
On this day in 2005, a violent waterspout passed just west of Key
West in the outermost rainband of approaching Hurricane Wilma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  75  82  74 /  30  50  30  30
Marathon  82  74  82  73 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ076-077.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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