Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
353 FXUS62 KKEY 121731 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 131 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days, as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -A taste of Fall continues for much of the week, as humidity levels will be below normal. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been canceled for these island communities, as water levels have decreased below the advisory criteria. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected today, even outside the times of high tide. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through 18z Monday afternoon, with only a slight chance of a passing brief shower. Near-surface winds will remain out of the north to northeast at 6 to 8 knots through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1117 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled rising low- and mid-level geopotential heights, along with tremendous dry air above 850 mb. KBYX radar is only detecting a few isolated showers across the Florida Keys marine zones, with CIMSS satelitte-derived precipitable water product highlighting dry air filtering southward into the Keys, as a continental high builds across the East Coast in the wake of an intensifying low pressure off Tidewater Virginia. Temperatures are only near 80F across the Island Chain at this late morning hour, only likely nudging upward into the lower to mid 80s later this afternoon. No changes to the forecast required at this time-- enjoy the first taste of Florida Fall. && .FORECAST... Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 In the wake of the frontal passage last evening, much drier air has filtered into the Keys. The caveat to this is a boundary that we have been tracking moving southward across the offshore Gulf waters. This boundary has had a history of being able to produce quite robust showers, perhaps even a thunderstorm at times. As this boundary continues moving southward, some guidance is showing the potential for this boundary to ignite more showers or even a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the Lower Keys this morning and areas to the west. Therefore, don`t be surprised if somewhere in the Lower Keys gets one more decent shower or even a quick thunderstorm this morning. For now, we hold the 20% but there might be a small window this morning where that PoP chance might actually be higher than that before the drier air moves in more deeply through the column. Even drier air is expected to move into the region for tonight and the holiday itself resulting in rain chances decreasing to 10%. A subtle increase in moisture is expected for Monday night and Tuesday resulting in a slight uptick back to 20%. Another boundary moves through the Keys Tuesday/Tuesday night which will usher in even drier air resulting in a period of PoPs at 10%. In addition, north to northeasterly breezes are expected to freshen early week as high pressure builds in from the north. Breezes will further shift to mainly northeasterly for much of the week peaking overnight and in the morning and lulling in the afternoon. Moisture will increase a little bit for late week into next weekend as the flow begins to shift more east to southeast. Rain chances creep back up a little bit to 20% as a result. Other than that, the next week looks to feature highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 70s along with more comfortable humidity than we have dealt with as of late. It appears fall may be here to stay at least for this week. Dew points may even drop into the mid to upper 60s towards mid week! Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 From synopsis, light to gentle north to northeasterly breezes expected this afternoon and tonight as the Keys remain in between low pressure off the North Carolina Coast and high pressure building in across the northern Gulf Coast. Expect north to northeasterly swells across the eastern marine zones this afternoon due to the low off the North Carolina coast. High pressure will build across the eastern United States to start the week, leading to freshening mainly northeasterly breezes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 86 78 85 / 10 10 20 20 Marathon 75 86 77 86 / 10 10 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest