Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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876
FXUS62 KKEY 170304
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1104 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures across the Keys will stay warmer than normal this
  week. Dew points are expected to linger in the upper 70s.

- A swath of Saharan dry air will remain across the Keys through
  the first part of the week. Shower chances are likely to stay
  significantly below normal until the latter half of the week.

- Gentle to moderate easterly breezes at the beginning of the
  week will slacken to light to gentle over the course of the
  week, and even become light and variable at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
A mostly uneventful night is unfolding for the Florida Keys.
Saharan dry air continues to limit a majority of the shower
activity and seen on Nighttime Microphysics even clouds are
struggling to survive. Tonight`s 00z KKEY sounding measured
another dry profile with only 1.43 inches of PWAT which according
to SPC Climatology is less than the 10 percentile for the day.
Temperatures are in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s
making for another humid, warm night. Along the Reef, winds are
east to southeasterly at near 10 knots. For the overnight, not
much is expected to change as things remain dry therefore near nil
rain chances are in the forecast and breezes will slightly
slacken to light to gentle as ridging remains in place.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, generally gentle east to
southeast breezes will become light and variable at times across
the local waters over the next few days as ridging remains the
dominant weather feature across the area. Northward movement of
the subtropical ridge away from the Keys will allow a col region
to set up between Florida and Cuba. Shower coverage will be kept
far below normal because of a Saharan Air Layer moving over the
Keys waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Dry air will limit shower activity therefore no mention
of VCSH necessary at either terminal. Near surface winds will be
east to southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots through tonight.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....DM/DR

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