Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
343 FXUS62 KKEY 301738 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 138 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A reverse cloud line is possible this afternoon. Any developing cloud line will tend to favor waterspout development. - Light to gentle southwest to west breezes expected today, becoming mainly light breezes tonight. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with SW winds around 5 kts through this evening and becoming light/VRB overnight into Friday. In addition, while isolated SHRA activity could occur through this evening due to the development of a weak reverse cloud line, any precip activity that does develop is expected to be light enough with minimal aviation impacts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 The western periphery of the Atlantic ridge will continue to extend west into the Keys for today. This will result in mainly southwesterly flow, though, much weaker than previous days. Expect mostly light to gentle southwest breezes today becoming light tonight. While a generally quiet day is on tap for today, a reverse cloud line is possible in the vicinity of the Island Chain. We do have drier air in place, therefore, the cloud line may struggle a bit. However, if it does develop, any cloud line will tend to favor waterspout development. Outside of the cloud line development, the heat will be the main concern with highs in the lower 90s combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This will lead to heat index values pushing close to 108 degrees. Overnight lows also won`t provide much relief in the lower to mid 80s. The ridge over the Atlantic will retreat slightly for Friday through the first half of the weekend. This will place the Keys into a col region resulting in a potential period of light and variable breezes. Moisture undulations will continue to rotate around the ridge resulting in slight rain and thunder chances. Also, expect continued typical summertime heat and humidity with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. As we head into Saturday night and the second half of the weekend, the high will regain some control across the region resulting in breezes freshening out of the southeast. Moisture will increase slightly compared to previous days, though, still mostly remain slight chances. However, there is a possibility these become chance PoPs due to the increased moisture. It just depends on how much more it increases across the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s. There are signals for a potentially more active pattern to move the Keys for the early to middle part of next week. Numerical model guidance is beginning to signal a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell lumbering into the Keys or nearby. Other model guidance just shows an increase in moisture with an uptick in rain chances. However, if the prior solution occurs, the potential exists for feistier showers and thunderstorms as well as more widespread. This would also come with some upper level support as well. Right now, it is too far out to tell exactly the details of what may occur. However, the one trend being picked up on is for an increase in cloud cover, slightly cooler temperatures, and increased rain chances through the period. The details for when and how much, intensity of any activity remains all but highly uncertain. Check back for updates as we continue to fine tune the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1037 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic surface ridge will continue to slide westward across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will result in a weak nebulous flow through tonight with light to gentle breezes. A col region will set up for Friday into the first part of the weekend, resulting in a potential period of light and variable breezes. As high pressure strengthens in the North Atlantic, southeast breezes will freshen by the second half of the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 91 84 91 / 0 10 0 20 Marathon 83 90 83 90 / 0 10 0 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...RG Aviation/Nowcasts....RG Data Acquisition.....RG Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest