Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
382 FXUS62 KKEY 040232 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1032 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes will slacken overnight to gentle to moderate breezes. The wind forecast remains unusually uncertain for the next few days. Large swings both up and down will be possible. - Well above normal rain and thunder chances will continue through the end of the week, peaking Thursday. - Increased cloud cover and convective coverage will help to keep temperatures closer to near normal levels over the next few days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Well, it sure has been an active late afternoon and evening across the Florida Keys. Convection was initially across the SE Gulf waters which extended eastward to the South Florida mainland. The activity over the mainland moved southeastward towards the Upper Keys and strengthened as they did so. This prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the area from Key Largo to Route 1 Card Sound along with several Special Marine Warnings. As this activity moved off to the southeast, it weakened. However, another area of stronger convection formed across the eastern distant Straits which also became quite strong and warranted warnings due to the untapped air in this location prior. All activity across the eastern portions of the area has since waned. Further west, convection also got quite robust across the SE Gulf waters as the activity moved towards Key West. As it got closer though, the activity fizzled. Attention then turned to the southwest Straits where two cells were being watched for consistent rotation. This activity is still currently ongoing. Other than that, mainly stratiform rain continues for the Middle and Lower Keys as the area is worked over for the time being. MRMS data shows 6 hourly estimated rainfall amounts of generally a tenth to a quarter of an inch along the Chain with 1-2 inches in the area from Key Largo to Route 1 Card Sound from the earlier potentially severe storm. In the wake of the front this evening, marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording northeast to east breezes of 15 to 20 knots. Breezes have been slowly slackening from northeast to southwest through the evening hours. Temperatures along the Island Chain are much cooler tonight compared to 24 hours ago registering in the upper 70s. Dew points are in the mid 70s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows an extremely moist profile, especially above 650 mb. Below 650 mb, there is still a decent amount of dry air, though, the overall sounding as a whole is very moisture laden. The PWAT value measured was 2.26 inches which is a new max by 0.01 inches for the date. The previous record was 2.25 inches. The wind profile in the lowest 3000 ft is pure northeasterly with speeds of 25 knots at 1000 ft decreasing to 10 to 15 knots for 2000 to 3000 ft. Instability is still quite high with a measured CAPE value of 1978 J/kg. Based on all this, since we had convection across much of the area this afternoon and evening, most of the region has been worked over for the time being. Current thinking is for much of the overnight to remain quite benign for much of the Keys. It will take some time for the atmosphere to destabilize with potentially needing some daytime heating Thursday morning first to help get things going. Therefore, outside of ongoing stratiform rain overnight, the next round of convection may wait till sometime late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours. Due to this, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease for the SE Gulf waters and Straits of Florida overnight. From synopsis, the combination of a robust eastern United States surface high, a deepening Gulf low, and a weak frontal boundary draped across the Keys will keep breezes moderate to fresh for the next few hours, especially across the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida. Uncertainty remains high, and periods of higher breezes will be possible. Additional perturbations are likely due to an expected increase in convective activity along the frontal boundary. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain quite elevated through much of the remainder of the week. The threat of periods of higher breezes will remain. Rain chances should trend downwards towards normal through the weekend as drier air moves in and breezes diminish. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 The active weather pattern is expected to continue for at least the next 36 to 48 hours across the Keys. KBYX radar shows mainly stratiform light rain currently affecting both terminals. This is expected to continue for the next few hours which will result in mainly VFR conditions with occasionally MVFR CIGs. Current thinking is that most of the overnight will remain fairly benign outside of the ongoing light rain. That being said, latest indications are for another round of convection to develop during the morning hours. However, it may take some time to destabilize the atmosphere, therefore, the next round of convection may not occur until Thursday afternoon and evening. Confidence on timing and placement remains uncertain, though, there is enough to warrant keeping VCSH in the TAF. Once again any showers or storms will be capable of reducing VIS and CIGs, produce gusty winds, and lightning strikes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 78 88 78 / 60 80 80 70 Marathon 87 77 85 78 / 70 70 80 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest