Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
836 FXUS62 KKEY 141524 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1124 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -Humidity levels will be below normal through most of the week. -A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected, even outside the times of high tide. -Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Atlantic, will not be a threat to the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Things are drying out along the Florida Keys after a somewhat wet start to the day. Outflow from yesterday`s convection over Cuba pushed north through the Straits of Florida developing showers that ultimately crossed through the Lower and Middle Keys before sunrise. What now remains is a cluster of convection bubbling in the eastern Straits of Florida as well as a blob of showers drifting west near the Dry Tortugas. GOES-19 visible imagery notes clear skies over the western half of the Keys with cloud debris obscuring the remainder of the island chain. Despite some of the extra cloud cover, temperatures are still hovering near or just above 80 with dewpoints still stuck in the lower to mid 70s. Moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes persist along the Reef making for a choppy day in the nearshore waters of the Keys. The Keys are currently situated along a steep moisture gradient brought along by the front that swept through southeast CONUS this past weekend. CIMSS MIMIC PW constantly puts values greater than 2 inches in the Florida Straits with values approaching 1.5 inches found in deep Gulf waters north of the island chain. This morning`s 12z KKEY sounding leaned towards the wetter side of things with a PW above 2.13 inches likely helping explain the early morning rainfall. Guidance expects mid level moisture to gradually sink south as the nor`easter on north end of the Eastern Seaboard marches out into the North Atlantic. Thus have opted to keep slight rain chances in the short term. Breezes are also expected to slacken starting tonight into tomorrow as high pressure takes over the Eastern Seaboard. A shame we could not also see a proper drop in dewpoints, but it is still just a little too early for a real frontal passage just yet. Stay tuned... && .MARINE... Issued at 1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all coastal waters of the Florida Key except the Florida Bay. From synopsis, a low pressure system developing off the Eastern Seaboard and a high pressure system over the eastern United States will allow moderate to fresh breezes today and tonight. Slackening winds are expected on Wednesday as the aforementioned low moves east. By the end of the week, high pressure will set up along the Carolina coast and support freshening breezes. Expect peak breezes during the late evening to mornings, and lulls in the afternoons. Shower coverage will remain isolated to scattered. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out, low confidence in organized development will leave mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at near 10 knots with frequent gusts to 15 to 20 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1964, category 3 Hurricane Isbell moved northeast off of the western tip of Cuba, passing just west of the Marquesas Keys and northwest of the Keys. In Key West, the minimum pressure was 29.49 inches and the peak wind was 73 mph with a 4-5 ft tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 86 76 84 75 / 20 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest