Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
976 FXUS62 KKEY 261407 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1007 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 949 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights mean layer ridging centered over northern Mexico, west of generally lower heights in the southeastern US and Florida. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled falling falling upper level heights as the long wave trough loses latitude into Florida. The morning commute observed lingering, yet dormant, cloud lines north and south of the island chain. In the hours after sunrise these lines transitioned into broken and thin lines of towering cumulus, but no thunderstorms. The most recent radar loops denote decreasing coverage across the Keys. Although it is still a little early, there appears to be subsidence squelching moist congestus. Visibile satellite imagery reveals shimmering in the mid levels which is a sign of inhibition and stealthy inversion layers not entirely captured by our 12Z KKEY RAOB. Steering flow remains southwesterly, and gives way to northerly shear near 15 knots above 400 mb. The weak lapse rates may be unable to overcome the shearing force in the mid to upper levels, adding to the subsidence limitations. Nevertheless, the pattern suggests with daytime heating there is a fair chance for cycling reverse cloud lines this afternoon. We will retain the 40% chances for the island chain with highs near 90. Locations adjacent to South Florida likely will surge into the 10 to 12 knot range later this afternoon. The inherited forecast is on track and needs no adjustments. && .MARINE... Issued at 949 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak ridge axis will extend westward from the western Atlantic across the Straits of Florida today through Thursday morning, with light to gentle southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters. Breezes may become variable at times during this period. The ridge will shift back northward Thursday afternoon through Friday, allowing light southeast breezes to resume. Building high pressure over the western Atlantic during the weekend will bring gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 949 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals this afternoon. With that said, there will be the a good chance for sub VFR conditions due to an environment conducive for island cloud line development. While Key West cannot be ruled, Marathon will be most likely to be affected. Surface winds will be light, tending broadly westerly. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2020, a daily record warm low temperature of 86F was measured in Key West. This measurement tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in June. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 81 90 82 / 30 20 30 20 Marathon 90 81 90 82 / 40 20 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest