Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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976
FXUS62 KKEY 261407
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1007 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 949 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights mean layer ridging centered over
northern Mexico, west of generally lower heights in the
southeastern US and Florida. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled falling
falling upper level heights as the long wave trough loses
latitude into Florida. The morning commute observed lingering,
yet dormant, cloud lines north and south of the island chain. In
the hours after sunrise these lines transitioned into broken and
thin lines of towering cumulus, but no thunderstorms. The most
recent radar loops denote decreasing coverage across the Keys.
Although it is still a little early, there appears to be
subsidence squelching moist congestus. Visibile satellite imagery
reveals shimmering in the mid levels which is a sign of inhibition
and stealthy inversion layers not entirely captured by our 12Z
KKEY RAOB. Steering flow remains southwesterly, and gives way to
northerly shear near 15 knots above 400 mb. The weak lapse rates
may be unable to overcome the shearing force in the mid to upper
levels, adding to the subsidence limitations. Nevertheless, the
pattern suggests with daytime heating there is a fair chance for
cycling reverse cloud lines this afternoon. We will retain the 40%
chances for the island chain with highs near 90. Locations
adjacent to South Florida likely will surge into the 10 to 12 knot
range later this afternoon. The inherited forecast is on track
and needs no adjustments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 949 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak
ridge axis will extend westward from the western Atlantic across
the Straits of Florida today through Thursday morning, with light
to gentle southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys
waters. Breezes may become variable at times during this period.
The ridge will shift back northward Thursday afternoon through
Friday, allowing light southeast breezes to resume. Building high
pressure over the western Atlantic during the weekend will bring
gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 949 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals this afternoon.
With that said, there will be the a good chance for sub VFR
conditions due to an environment conducive for island cloud line
development. While Key West cannot be ruled, Marathon will be most
likely to be affected. Surface winds will be light, tending broadly
westerly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 2020, a daily record warm low temperature of 86F was
measured in Key West. This measurement tied for the warmest low
temperature ever recorded in June. Temperature records for Key West
date back to 1873.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  81  90  82 /  30  20  30  20
Marathon  90  81  90  82 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....11

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