Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
166 FXUS62 KKEY 140248 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1048 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -A taste of Fall continues for much of the week as humidity levels will be below normal. -A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected, even outside the times of high tide. -Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Atlantic, will not be a threat to the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The radar has certainly come to life in the last few hours. Boundaries coming off the mainland and Cuba are colliding and producing widely scattered showers. There was some isolated lightning in the activity coming north from Cuba, but it`s struggling to hold itself together. Otherwise, winds have begun freshening from east to west as high pressure begins to slowly fill in behind a broad low pressure system sitting off the Mid- Atlantic and New England Coasts. The process of the freshening breezes is producing a speed convergence and contributing to existing ongoing boundary collisions. This has led to a slightly larger coverage area of showers and therefore, have nudged PoPs up slightly. In addition, the winds are a touch stronger than previously thought and have nudged winds very slightly. The most noticeable change is across the outer Gulf waters, where moderate to fresh breezes will develop late overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1031 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Moderate breezes will overtake all of the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. Occasional fresh breezes are expected across the outer Gulf waters. Therefore, a Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headline in is effect for these waters. Additional SCEC headlines look likely tomorrow across portions of the area. From synopsis: A low pressure system will continue to move off the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic coastline overnight. High pressure builds in behind it across much of the eastern United States. This will promote peaking and lulling mainly northeasterly breezes through much of the period. Breezes will peak mostly during the late evenings to mornings and lull in the afternoons. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 VFR conditions will be expected outside of the occasional passing shower. Coverage of these showers have been spotty as they wax and wane and drift west southwest across the island chain. Inserted mentions of VCSH for portions of the overnight, however, confidence on MVFR impacts is too low to include at this time. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest