Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
912 FXUS62 KKEY 051800 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 100 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. Minor to moderate coastal flooding may return across the Keys heading into the weekend with the approaching new moon. - Rain chances will be near to below normal for the remainder of this week. - Dew points are expected to decrease to near 70 degrees by this weekend due to breezes turning to light to gentle northerlies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 Showers have been much more isolated today compared to yesterday which signals that we`re finally turning a corner to a drier period. This is due to a 589dam ridge extending northeast from the Gulf, across the Florida Peninsula and into the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure is centered north of Bermuda while a non- tropical low is slowly strengthening to the south of Bermuda. This orientation is promoting light to gentle east-northeasterly breezes across the area. However, our perceivable weather through the weekend will be heavily influenced by the mid-level ridge axis which will transit eastward across the area through Saturday. MIMIC PWAT imagery shows a plume of drier air advecting towards the area from the northeast and this will likely show up well on this evening`s 00Z sounding. Expect mostly sunny and warm conditions to persist through the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s. To our north, a weak frontal boundary is currently oriented northeast to southwest across Georgia extending into the Gulf Coast region. This front will slowly drift towards our forecast area by Sunday as an upper-level trough ejects across the Great Lakes region. Forcing and moisture along and ahead of the front will be minimal by the time it reaches our area. Therefore, PoPs are currently sitting around 30% or less for early next week. If anything, we should see some relief from the humid conditions with dewpoints dropping to near 70 degrees at times this weekend. Model consensus begins to diverge by the middle part of next week with regards to the evolution of a southern stream trough across the Southeastern US, but there is at least some evidence that our rain chances could increase again throughout the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 A surface ridge north of Bermuda is extending southwest across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf. This feature will promote light to gentle east-northeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys marine zones this afternoon. A few isolated showers are transiting westward south of the island chain, but rain chances will gradually diminish by tonight as drier mid-level air moves in from the west. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 High pressure extending from the western Atlantic southwest towards the Gulf will promote drying conditions and VFR TAFs through this cycle. There are a few isolated showers south of the terminals moving towards the west, but not nearly enough coverage to mention in the TAF. Sfc winds will be east-northeasterly around 5 to 10 knots with occasional gusts to 15 knots, decreasing to around 5 knots overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 83 76 82 / 10 0 10 10 Marathon 77 83 76 83 / 10 0 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DM Aviation/Nowcasts....DM Data Acquisition.....DM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest