Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
230 FXUS62 KKEY 031530 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. - Rain chances will remain slightly above normal today. Locally heavy rainfall, especially when coincident with high tides may exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. - Rain chances will diminish over the following few days to near or below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A much quieter morning for the Florida Keys today. Some showers were lingering across the Upper and Middle Keys around sunrise, which quickly dissipated. Within the last hour KBYX radar shows a flair up in showers and potential thunderstorms have begun developing across the distant Straits of Florida between Cay Sal Bank and the Middle Keys. This activity should remain out across open water as the flow is nearly east to west this morning. Otherwise, the Keys remain between features. A cut-off low in the mid and upper levels is gradually deteriorating and losing its strength. However, in the low levels we have an Atlantic Ridge providing a moisture rich east to southeast flow. As a result, today`s weather pattern will be more mesoscale driven as opposed to a combination of mesoscale and synoptic like we saw yesterday. With that in mind, have opted to leave rain chances at their current standings. The Upper Keys, which lie closer to a convergence boundary will see slightly higher rain chances than the rest of the Keys. Likewise, most of the showers and thunderstorms that may develop this afternoon will likely stay out across the open waters of the Florida Straits. No changes were made or needed for this update. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes continue this morning and will prevail into the afternoon. The Gulf waters in the lee of the mainland may see a brief slackening of breezes this afternoon. Otherwise, showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across mainly the eastern half of the Straits of Florida as well as the Hawk Channel waters off the Upper Keys. While coverage of activity will be less, any shower or thunderstorm that develops today will carry a risk of gusty, erratic winds, visibility reductions, and a few lightning strikes. Chances for showers and storms will continue to decline through the next 12 to 24 hours and are expecting dry conditions for the second half of the week, along with gradually slackening breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of any passing convection. Most of the activity is expected to remain offshore but may briefly affect the MTH terminal at times. May need to extend the period of VCSH into the afternoon for MTH, otherwise, near surface winds will continue out of the east to southeast at 10 knots or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A strong surface Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the eastern United States while a weak trough remains in the southeastern Gulf. This is resulting in east to southeasterly breezes that are moderate on our eastern zones and light on our west. This ridge trough arrangement is resulting in organized lower level veering and confluence across our area. However, upper level support around a southern stream trough is not aligned overhead. For the time being, activity across the Keys has largely washed out in recent hours. With that said, scattered to numerous activity is present on the distant Florida Straits and beyond. Temperatures have come down to near 80 with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The southeastern Gulf troughing is expected to weaken as it shifts north northwestward into the northeastern Gulf. This should take the best low level confluence with it. However, some low level lift is expected to continue through today, along with deep layered moisture remaining rather high. In addition, the environment is expected to be uncapped with ample CAPE. As a result, rain chances will remain moderately above normal for this time of year. The Atlantic ridge will remain positioned off to our north, but the gradient is expected to slacken slightly through the day. Expect seasonal temperatures, but dew points remaining above normal in the mid to upper 70s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 76 83 76 / 30 30 20 30 Marathon 84 77 84 76 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest