Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
928 FXUS62 KKEY 061504 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1104 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and thunder chances will remain near zero for the Keys through the weekend. - Dew points will increase to the mid 70s by the end of the week. Combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, this will support potential elevated heat risk concerns for the weekend. - Limited total rainfall amounts are expected through early next week for most island communities. This will continue to exacerbate existing drought conditions across the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 A beautiful Florida morning is underway across the Keys this morning as skies are mostly sunny skies are in place! Visible satellite imagery shows only a handful of fair weather, low level cumulus clouds traversing the forecast area, as well as a very thin veil of high level cirrus clouds. Looping the satellite imagery actually helps to show the anticyclonic nature of the ridging that is building it. The 12Z KKEY sounding from this morning shows a remarkably dry sounding except near 2000 feet and 38,000 feet. The two areas of modest increased moisture seem to coincide with the very little cloud coverage we have to speak of. The calculated PWAT of 1.05" is almost half of an inch less than 24 hours ago, and CIMSS PWAT depicts an average value just under an inch across all of our forecast zones. All of this is to say that our air, even though it may feel a little humid outside, is dry enough to thwart any chances of showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, and dew points are in the lower 70s, but this is only setting the stage for what is to come. Strong high pressure will encourage temperatures and dew points to gradually build over the coming days, and confidence is increasing that heat risk will be a notable concern. By the weekend, there will be little, if any, temperature recovery overnight after heat index values during the day will approach the 100F mark. Since this is the first real push of sustained hot conditions of the seasons, everyone is encouraged to mindful of hydration, and how much time is spend outdoors. There are no changes or updates needed with the current forecast package. && . PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 A rather routine forecast through at least Sunday. The aforementioned ridge will slowly slide eastward over the next several days while also amplifying. Light southeasterlies will supply modest warm air and dew point advection to the Keys. Forecast soundings suggest cloud cover will be quite limited through at least Sunday, with near-nil rain and thunder chances continuing. Temperatures will become above normal as the ridge sits on top of the Keys by the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 80s (near 90F at a few island communities), and temperatures struggling to get below 80F for the overnight periods in the stagnant light flow. Early next week, most ensemble mean global guidance suggests a weak frontal boundary will approach the Keys. As is often the case this time of year, the boundary will lose baroclinicity as it approaches South Florida, likely stalling before eventually washing out. However, this may support at least a window of slight to low-end chance rain and thunder potential. Any rainfall will be welcome, given low- to moderate ongoing drought conditions for the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories issued for the Florida Keys local waters. Higher pressure building in, and dominating the pattern, will encourage light to gentle southeasterly breezes through the middle of the week. Breezes may become variable at times. Moisture will be limited through the atmosphere, so rain and thunder chances are very low, near zero. The next opportunity for some unsettled weather may not be until early next week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with only FEW to SCT clouds near FL025. Southeasterly surface winds may become variable at times, but crosswind concerns are low due to winds peaking near 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 79 89 80 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 85 79 86 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest