Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
223 FXUS62 KKEY 161749 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures across the Keys will stay warmer than normal this week. Dew points are expected to linger in the upper 70s. - A swath of Saharan dry air will remain across the Keys through the first part of the week. Shower chances are likely to stay significantly below normal until the latter half of the week. - Gentle to moderate easterly breezes at the beginning of the week will slacken to light to gentle over the course of the week, and even become light and variable at times. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail with only FEW to SCT clouds near FL030. East to southeast surface winds at 5 to 10 knots will occasionally become variable. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Prepare for a prolonged period hot, muggy weather across the Florida Keys this week. There is high confidence that a Saharan Air Layer will set up over Southern Florida early in the work week. Drier air aloft will trap humidity near the surface and result in heat indices approaching 108 degrees. Meanwhile, a mid level trough descending out of Canada into the eastern United States will result in the northward movement of the subtropical ridge. Model ensembles are consistently showing a col region setting up across the Keys during the week, so brace for periods of light and variable winds. Anyone concerned about heat this week should take precautions. While the Saharan Air Layer will not persist through the entire week, it is highly likely that shower coverage will remain below normal for the entire work week. Even after the dust layer is washed out, model ensembles suggest the deeper layers of moisture will continue to be deflected north of the Keys. Statistical guidance suggests rain chances may remain below normal through next weekend. However, the pattern may shift slightly and direct more moisture towards the island chain. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. High pressure across the area will encourage light to gentle generally east breezes, occasionally becoming light and variable at times. Rain chances remain very low due to a Saharan Air Layer aloft combined with a mid to upper level dry air mass. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 92 81 92 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 83 90 81 90 / 0 10 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest