Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
259 FXUS62 KKEY 080225 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1025 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal rain chances are expected through Monday. - Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are expected over the next few days. - Rain chances will trend upward beginning Tuesday or Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 CIMSS products shows mainly mean layer ridging across the area. At the surface, a broad high remains in place across the area with the center over the western North Atlantic to the east of Bermuda. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Keys are recording east to southeast breezes near 15 knots. KBYX radar has been active for much of the afternoon and evening. Initially, there were some cloud streamers across the Keys with some showers to the north of the Lower Keys. In the last hour or two, showers have developed just outside the Straits of Florida which have since moved into the Florida Keys coastal waters moving westward at near 10 knots. Additionally, there is a cluster of showers which emerged off the mainland and are moving to the west just outside the SE Gulf waters near R Tower. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows partly cloudy skies across the Keys with mainly high level cirrus and some low level stratocumulus. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows a mostly dry atmospheric profile with some moisture in the lowest few thousand feet. The PWAT value measured was 1.41 inches which is right at the 25th percentile for the date indicating a dry air mass remains in place for the time being across the Keys. The CAPE value measured was 1453 J/kg indicating some instability, though, this is low compared to some of the values measured last week. The wind profile remains mainly unidirectional with easterly breezes of 15 to 20 knots between 1000 to 3000 ft. Overall, expect more of the same through the overnight with some isolated showers due more to speed convergence, perhaps, some directional convergence. Since this is the only lifting mechanism in the area, no changes are expected to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a broad high centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys for the next couple of days. While the ridge will stretch out into the Atlantic early this week, it will also be reinforced by a new high moving off the Atlantic Coast, holding gentle to moderate easterlies. Uncertainty picks up heading into mid week. All guidance points to a robust trough migrating westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Winds are expected to shift southeasterly and should stay gentle to moderate, but could vary quite a bit depending on the exact behavior of the trough. Overall, moisture will increase, along with greater confluence, resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Near surface winds are expected to remain east to southeast through the period. There remains the risk for a passing shower or storm, though, confidence in timing and placement is too low, therefore, VCSH was no included in the TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 81 89 81 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 87 80 87 80 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest