Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
631 FXUS62 KKEY 221729 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 129 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Tropical Storm Bertha is located across the north-central Gulf, and the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories. This system poses no threat to the Florida Keys. - Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys. - Moisture will be gradually increasing starting Thursday in association with an easterly wave moving in from the Atlantic. This will allow for decent chances of accumulating rainfall for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Light showers are possible later this afternoon into this evening, but confidence on location and timing leaves mention of VCSH out of the TAFs for the time being. Near surface winds will continue to be southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, as of 8 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Bertha was centered over the northern Gulf waters. Bertha is expected to continue moving slowly to the west-northwest or west tonight through Friday, moving Tropical Storm Bertha near or along the northern Gulf coast. Otherwise, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend to the Florida Peninsula for the next several days. Gentle breezes will briefly become moderate overnight through early Thursday, then gradually slacken to light to gentle breezes by Friday, peaking overnight and lull during the day. Light winds are expected this weekend. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 A relatively benign overnight for the Florida Keys. Some moisture rounding the base of a ridge out across the Atlantic is pivoting through our far eastern areas this morning. This has allowed for some isolated showers to develop and occasionally pass over the Upper Keys. Most of these showers have been shallow with tops around 15 thousand feet, which has placed them below below the -20 degree celsius, which we look for as an indicator for lightning initiation. In face, surprisingly most of these showers are even below the freezing level. Otherwise, as the aforementioned ridge continues to nose back in to the west, this is maintaining an east to southeast across the area. Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha. At 2 am, TS Bertha was located about 75 miles east of the Mississippi River Delta and continues a westward movement. Bertha does not pose a risk for the Florida Keys. As the ridge continues to move westward from the Atlantic, we will continue to be suppressed in the sense of vertical upward motion and rain chances will continue to be limited today through Thursday. Thereafter, moisture in association with an easterly wave will slowly filter into the region starting Thursday evening. Models disagree on which side will be the wettest and thereby the best chances for wetting rains. For now have trended PoPs up for both Thursday night and Friday to account for this discrepancies until models get into better alignment. Beyond the end of the week, the forecast remains rather chaotic with models at odds with each other. Once this easterly wave passes through it will become a matter of whether troughing truly builds as equatorward as some models think. The ECMWF has a trough that parks itself across the eastern U.S. including Florida and the Florida Keys for days. This would result in southwest to west winds and even brief periods of west to northwest winds. On the other hand, the GFS has the trough held up further north across Central and Panhandle Florida, which would result in our winds returning east to southeast. A nearly polar opposite result. Unfortunately, given such outcomes, have tried a middle of the road approach for now with the understanding that this will likely change as we get closer to next week. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest