234
FXUS62 KKEY 260523
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
123 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and minor to moderate
  coastal flooding in the Lower to Middle Keys is ongoing,
  especially around high tide.

- A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida
  Keys coastal waters. A Gale Watch is in effect for all the
  Florida Key coastal waters from early Monday morning through
  early Tuesday morning.

- Fast-moving scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
  continue to move through the area until at least Tuesday night.
  Any of this activity will be capable of producing stronger wind
  gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
A proliferation of fast-moving scattered showers are tracking
towards the southwest around 25 to 30 knots across our waters this
evening. This is consistent with around 26 kts of mean northeasterly
flow up to 10kft per the 00Z KKEY RAOB. These showers have been
producing measured gusts of 30-37kts at a few of our surrounding
marine observation sites despite being shallow and rather transient.
Looking further north, the same can be said for much of the east
coast of Florida. Low-level moisture has rebounded quite a bit since
this time yesterday, although a deep layer of dry air is still
present above 500mb. Taking a look at the bigger picture, the Keys
remain sandwiched between a sprawling deep-layer ridge extending
from the western Gulf north-northeast across the eastern CONUS
towards the Great Lakes region while stagnant troughing extends
south along the Eastern Seaboard with a portion of the trough cutoff
over the Bahamas and eastern Caribbean. Northeasterly low/mid-level
flow between these two features is being pinched and enhanced,
particularly in the lower-levels. Hi-res guidance indicates the
nocturnal wind surge will begin over the following hours, but we`ve
already been seeing sporadic yet sometimes consistent gusts in the
25-30 kt range even outside of the shower activity. As such, a Gale
Watch was hoisted for all marine zones beginning at 5 am tomorrow
morning as gusts of 30-35 kts become possible. The Small Craft
Advisory will remain in effect until then.

Despite being on the western side of the Caribbean trough, we`re
close enough to be grazed by pockets of higher low-level moisture in
addition to spokes of low-level vorticity advection. This combined
with ample low-level speed convergence will continue to generate
scattered to numerous showers through tonight and into tomorrow,
although coverage will likely be highest in the eastern portions of
the forecast area, particularly the eastern Straits of Florida.
Rainfall accumulations, per radar, have generally been around a
tenth of an inch or less over any given area due to the quick
motions, so flooding is not much of a concern beyond what is already
occurring from King Tides.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys
marine zones, and a Gale Watch will be in effect for all zones
by early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Frequent
gusts to near 35 knots outside of shower activity are possible
from early Monday to early Tuesday morning.

From synopsis, sprawling high pressure over the eastern United
States and a persistent low south of the Bahamas will be able to
sustain fresh to strong breezes overnight. Near gale wind gusts
are possible for all the Florida Keys waters early Monday morning
through Tuesday. In addition, pulses of low level moisture will
support elevated shower chances. Gale force wind gusts are
possible even near shallow showers. Wave heights will stay
elevated through mid week even after breezes begin to slacken.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
VFR conditions are prevailing at both TAF sites early this
morning. SHRA continues to track to the southwest, but the
activity is remaining east of the terminals. Guidance suggests
higher chances for a passing shower this afternoon, but most of
the activity will remain in the vicinity. Pressure gradient winds
remain elevated from the N/NE around 10-15 kts with gusts of
20-25 kts, but brief higher gusts may occur in and near shower
activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  75  84  76  84 /  40  30  20  30
Marathon  75  84  75  84 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

     Gale Watch from 5 AM EDT early this morning through late tonight
     for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DM
Aviation/Nowcasts....DM
Data Acquisition.....11

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