299
FXUS62 KKEY 241942
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
342 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and minor to moderate
  coastal flooding in the Lower to Middle Keys is ongoing,
  especially around high tide.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected from today through
  early next week. Near-gale breezes will be possible at times
  Sunday evening through Monday evening, especially SE Gulf.

- Little to no relief from significant coastal and marine impacts
  are expected into at least the middle of next week. Residents
  and visitors should take the necessary actions to protect flood-
  prone property.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
The second to last weekend of October opened with mostly sunny
skies across the Florida Keys. KBYX radar returns suggest that
shower activity significantly diminished across the CWA after
lines of showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Straits
of Florida. Breezes along the reef have waxed and waned from
moderate to fresh and fresh to strong. In the meantime, satellite
observations show a drier mass of air wrapping around into the
Keys from Northern Florida. While lingering cloud cover in the
upper atmosphere suggests a bit of moisture is present, advected
layer PWAT from 850 to 700 mb highlights the dry slot over the
Keys. Tonight, the main story for weather will revolve around
winds and the tides. The king tide cycle is at its yearly peak,
and unfortunately the flooding is on track to get worse before it
improves. While a Coastal Flood Warning is not out for the Lower
and Middle Keys yet, we may enter warning territory within the
next few days.

A highly amplified weather pattern continues across North
America. A cutoff low is moving into the Four Corners region, a
second low is rapidly moving across western Canada, and a third
trough continues to deepen towards Cuba just off the eastern
coast. Between all these upper level lows, a pronounced ridge
stretches from the Gulf to Quebec. How are these features
interacting to influence weather across the Florida Keys?

Breezes are amplified across the Florida Keys waters. Fresh to
strong northeasterlies developed before the weekend, and are on
track to remain elevated through the start of the week. The
eastern coastline trough is expected to reach its peak intensity
on Monday, which is also when we are on track to observe strong to
near gale breezes. Shower coverage during this period of time will
be a bit more difficult to parse. While environmental PWAT is
forecast to oscillate between the 50th and 75th percentile values
this weekend, the layers to watch will be from the surface to 700
mb. Tonight, drier air can still wrap around across the Lower and
Middle Keys. For the second half of the weekend and Monday, the
drier air will be washed out by deeper layers of moisture moving
over South Florida. In the event the heaviest showers overlap with
king tides, anyone in the Keys should take caution near low lying
areas.

Forecast confidence after Monday drops quickly. Amplified patterns
can be difficult to model and the trough off the eastern coastline
is resolved very differently by the ECMWF and the GFS. The GFS
kept a stronger surface low near the Bahamas, while the ECMWF
lifts the low away as part of a broad wave. This means the Euro
resolves light and variable breezes over the eastern Straits on
Tuesday, while the GFS sustains fresh to strong breezes. Model
consensus, as one could guess, is low. Our forecast leans towards
the GFS as being more realistic. High pressure is forecast to
linger over the eastern United States for most of the week, and
thus the pressure gradient is more likely to be maintained. Check
back for updates, because the forecast can change quickly. In the
meantime, enjoy the mostly clear skies tonight!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine
zones. Breezes are on track to remain fresh to strong for a
prolonged period of time. Near gale conditions, while unlikely,
are possible early during the week. Lulls in winds are expected
during day time hours, but hazardous marine conditions will be
able to return rapidly.

From synopsis: High pressure over the eastern United States and a
weak low northeast of the Bahamas will sustain fresh to strong
breezes through the weekend and early next week. Peak breezes are
expected on Sunday night through Tuesday. Near gale breezes are
possible over the Outer Gulf waters. Freshening breezes and pulse
of low level moisture may support elevated shower chances on
Sunday night and Monday. Breezes are on track to slacken to
moderate to fresh by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH. Near surface winds
will continue to wax and wane in the mid teens with occasional to
frequent gusts. There is a very low probability of CIGs below VFR
flight levels. Showers, if they develop, are more likely to form
northeast of MTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1943, the daily record rainfall of 1.60" was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to
1871. Also, on this day in 1971, the daily record rainfall of
1.82" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date
back to June 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  74  83  75  84 /  10  30  40  40
Marathon  74  83  75  84 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....LIW

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