Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
227 FXUS62 KKEY 170229 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1029 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the week as indices may approach 108 to 110 degrees in the afternoon for portions of the island chain. - Rounds of Saharan Air Layer will continue to stream across our area this week into next week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 906 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 A split ridge pattern is in place across our area, resulting in light and varying breezes across the Keys. The weak flow has allowed dew points to dip into the mid 70s with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. While this evenings sounding indicated precipitable water was only slightly below normal at 1.53 inches, there were a number of good chunks of healthy dew point depressions through the column. There was a nose of inhibition based quite low at around 925 mb. This along with modest shear has prevented any convective activity across the forecast area this evening. This is kind of surprising as we are on the eastern side of an upper level low, which is wobbling slowly northward. The split ridge pattern will hold through the overnight, keeping breezes light and variable. The weak flow should permit a bit more cooling than in recent days and overnight lows will likely be able to settle into the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. Both forecast soundings and plan view images indicate the inhibition may weaken over night, but the drier layers will persist. Overall, these features along with the upper level low remaining nearby justifies holding at least dime PoPs for the overnight period. && .MARINE... Issued at 906 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 A split ridge pattern has placed a col over Keys waters. This has led to winds being quite variable across the region. This will last into this weekend, with winds tending to peak slightly stronger over the eastern Florida Straits. The Atlantic ridge will build westward this weekend resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes. However the col and often variable winds will return next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 906 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be light and variable. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest