Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
676 FXUS62 KKEY 151738 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 138 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV MARINE AND DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, with only a slight chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Near- surface winds at 8 to 10 knots will modestly increase to 10 to 13 knots overnight through around sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across Florida for the next several days. This will support moderate to occasionally fresh breezes. Winds will peak in the evening and overnight, while lulling during the day. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Weather in the Keys have remained largely unchanged from the past few days. A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the Florida Peninsula. This ridge continues the days long stretch of moderate east to southeasterly breezes, with nightly freshening and daily slackening. Deep layered ridging also remains in place with through the mid and upper levels. With that said, precipitable water is close to normal at 1.74 inches with limited low level inhibition and ample CAPE. This environment is supportive of showers and thunderstorms, however, forcing is not in great supply. As a result, convection has generally been limited. Atlantic surface through lower level ridging will remain through much of the week and continue the long stretch of moderate east to southeasterlies. Expect the nightly surges and daily lulls to continue. The steady flow will keep temperatures ranging widely in the 80s with dew points holding in the mid 70s. Despite more than adequate thermodynamics and moisture, the lack of forcing should keep shower and thunderstorm coverage limited. While it is early to say, a somewhat wetter pattern may be setting up for late in the week. This will hinge on a cut off upper level low being able to retrograde westward through the Bahamas and into South Florida. Should this occur, it is often accompanied by at least weak lower to mid level troughing, and increased lower level moisture and confluence. Uncertainty is quite high as some guidance suggests this low gets scooped up by a passing mid latitude trough before it can reach the Bahamas. For the time being, have nudged pops up to low chance beginning Friday. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest