Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
341 FXUS62 KKEY 011733 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION, MARINE... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout our coastal waters through this evening. VCSH is included at EYW while MTH has VCTS for a small period of time when confidence of showers developing into thunderstorms. While showers and thunderstorms continue to form, exact impacts on the terminals will vary depending on locations and TEMPOs will be included if/when needed. Outside of convection, winds will be southwest to westerly at near 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, Somewhat unusual westerly breezes prevail across the Florida Keys as our area is situated between ridging in the Caribbean and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the forecast as the trough lazes over the east coast of CONUS while a surface low develops along the Georgia coastline. This low is progged to meander off into the western North Atlantic and rest on the west edge of the Bermuda High promoting an extension of the already established pattern in the Keys. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Another rainy day will open September across the Florida Keys. Numerous showers are visible on KAMX radar over the Florida Straits, scattered showers are seen on GOES-E day cloud phase imagery over the Outer Gulf, and the atmosphere shows no signs the pattern will break this afternoon or tonight. The rain gauge at the Key West International Airport measured 0.08" of rainfall from 1 AM to 9 AM this morning, and we are expecting more precipitation tonight. While it will be muggy at the surface with dew points in the mid to upper 70s across the island chain, debris cloud cover from nearby showers will keep temperatures moderated. Finally, the morning KKEY sounding sampled an environmental PWAT near 2.25", above the daily 90th percentile value, for a second day in a row. Westerlies were sampled from the surface to 20 kft with northerlies aloft, which matched the movement of showers and debris cloud seen by KAMX. Overall, no changes are necessary to the inherited forecast. Breezes are freshening slightly across the nearshore waters and rainfall will be off and on this afternoon and tonight. Please keep watching the radar for updates. These patterns are vary chaotic and convective allowing models will change hourly. Remember to go inside near lightning, take precautions for rain, and stay safe near showers if you are out on the ocean. For better or worse, wet weather is likely to last until the weekend. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1933, a Hurricane moved west northwest through the Straits about 60 miles south of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.61" was recorded along with a peak sustained winds of 42 mph. Little damage was reported in Key West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 92 81 91 / 50 60 50 50 Marathon 80 90 81 90 / 60 60 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest