Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
639 FXUS62 KKEY 080817 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 417 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal rain chances are expected through Tuesday. - Gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes are expected over the next few days. - Rain chances will trend upward beginning Tuesday or Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 A muggy morning is opening across the Florida Keys. Dew points across the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s with temperatures either near 80 or in the lower 80s. Gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes are preventing the air from feeling too stagnant. Changes in the wind field are also able to provide a source of lift for near surface showers. Measurable rainfall was observed along some of the islands of the Lower Keys before sunrise. That being said, today does look on the drier side for June. Nighttime microphysics observations from GOES East highlight sparse low altitude cloud coverage amidst high altitude cirrus. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT estimates indicate the Florida Keys are on a bit of a moisture gradient. Drier air is stuck further north, over South Florida, while slightly more moist air streams in from the east. The current weather pattern suggests mostly sunny skies, persistent breezes, and a slight chance of showers. What led to the current forecast? A robust upper level ridge stretches from the Yucatan into the southeastern United States. That ridge is promoting sinking air over Florida, yet the surface features are messy. Weak waves in the wind flow have been sufficient to generate disorganized showers, plus there are a couple of convective clusters in the Caribbean. However, the pattern is on track to change. The upper level ridge is primed to move west towards Mexico as another ridge becomes more pronounced over the northeastern United States. That ridge would be able to send a more robust surface high from over Ontario and Quebec into the DELMARVA region by mid- week. Thus, the pressure gradient over the Keys would be briefly maintained. Later in the week, ensembles show a deep trough developing over the north central Plains, weakening the upper level ridge over Mexico. How does this translate to weather over the Keys? Breezes are on track to go through a diurnal trend of freshening after sunset and lulling after sunrise through mid-week. At the same time, shower coverage is expected to slowly increase. Once the high pressure system moves into the Atlantic, low to mid level winds would veer southeasterly and direct additional moisture across the Keys. Expect a return to above normal shower coverage during the latter half of the week. This forecast does depend on the surface high descending out of Canada, the upper level ridge moving further west towards Mexico, and the general collapse in the pressure gradient by the end of the week. Tropical environments can and do change rapidly, so check back again before making any plans. Today, at least, enjoy the sunny skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, tropical waves in the Caribbean and a surface high descending out of Canada will be sufficient to maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys waters through mid- week. Later in the week, breezes are on track to slacken as the high moves into the mid Atlantic. A shift towards southeasterly low to mid level winds is expected to cause a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east to southeast. Occasional MVFR CIGs are possible amidst clusters of FL020 to FL030 clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 81 89 80 / 20 20 20 40 Marathon 87 80 87 80 / 20 20 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest