Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
407 FXUS62 KKEY 140832 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 432 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 A fairly stable weather pattern is established across our area thanks to the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretching westward past Florida. Meanwhile, mid and upper level ridging is in place across our broader area. Surface winds have freshened modestly late this evening and are moderate out of the southeast. This steady flow is maintaining seasonable surface temperatures and dew points. Precipitable water is near normal at around 1.5 inches and inhibition is very limited. However, lower level dry layers and overall anticyclonic flow is keeping convective activity isolated. No significant changes to our synoptic pattern is expected. Surface through mid level ridging will remain in control. The upper level ridge is expected to weaken as weak troughing pinches off in the western Gulf. However, for our area, this means the flow aloft will become nebulous. As a result, the prolonged stretch of gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will continue through the weekend and well into next week. Winds will tend to peak in the evening and overnight and lull during the day. CAPE will remain ample, precipitable water near normal, and inhibition limited to non existent. However, the continued existence of lower to mid level dry layers and the dominant anticyclonic flow will help to mitigate convective coverage. Have nudged down pops to slight chance through the forecast. Expect continued seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s, lows in the lower 80s and dew points lingering in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast duration. Expect winds to peak in the evenings and overnight hours, while lulling slightly during the day. In addition, winds will tend to be higher over our western and southwestern waters. There is a good chance for periodic marine cautions for at least the Florida Straits. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Shower activity will continue to pass across the island chain through this morning, resulting in VCSH at both terminals. Direct impacts to either location could result in MVFR CIGs and VIS but TEMPOs will be included if need be. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1957, the daily record high temperature of 94F was recorded in Key West. Temperatures records for Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest