Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
827 FXUS62 KKEY 281020 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 620 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled conditions will continue today as showers and thunderstorms continue to follow an on-and-off pattern across the area. - After today, rain and thunder chances will come down slightly, but will still be around 20% as we head into the weekend. - Rainfall totals between today and Sunday will be a general 1-3" with locally higher amounts possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 619 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Showers had diminished during the overnight hours, but we are starting to see an uptick in activity again as we write this morning discussion. Our KBYX radar is detecting a disorganized area of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms across the Upper Keys, including the nearshore and offshore waters adjacent to Key Largo. It isn`t very clear as to what triggered this line to pop up so quickly, but the moisture and instability were there per the 00Z KKEY sounding from last night. Automated surface observations are reporting wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph associated with some of the stronger cells, and radar estimates one hour rainfall accumulations between half of an inch and three quarters of an inch from these showers. If showers are able to continue to develop to the south of the Upper Keys, and then follow a similar track over these island communities, some localized flooding may become a concern during the morning commute. The overall pattern still looks a little messy for today. Satellite derived PWAT estimates continue to show a plume of impressive values, more than two inches across most of the area. However, the satellite has had some interference from dense, higher level clouds, so we don`t have a thorough picture as to what moisture looks like everywhere. Most of the shower and thunderstorm initiation is going to depend on colliding boundaries and wind speed convergence, but it is difficult to say just who will see the most rainfall today. We`ll see this activity wax and wane as the atmosphere becomes worked over. Forecast soundings over the course of tonight and tomorrow point to some low level drier air. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show fairly wet weather lingering through the long term period due to the elevated moisture, and potential upper level support over the general area. However, there isn`t any notable lift near the surface to get these air parcels going. For the time being, we will continue to advertise rainfall chances sitting near normal, around 20% to 30% through the weekend and into the start of next week. By midweek, the combination of a deepening trough over the eastern U.S. and another influx of higher moisture content is resulting in guidance producing PoPs around 50% to 60%. This will likely change in the coming days as we get through this first round of wet weather, but it will be worth monitoring. && .MARINE... Issued at 619 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, breezes will continue to slacken and veer southeasterly to southerly today as a surface high centered near Bermuda shifts southward. Moisture will remain elevated across the area, but showers and thunderstorms will be hit or miss. Moisture will gradually decrease beginning later tonight, and relatively drier conditions will return as we head into the weekend. This will limit but not eliminate the potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals, but occasional observations of MVFR CIGs will be possible as showers wax and wane throughout the TAF period. Opting to go with a broadbrushed VCSH beginning around 28/16Z, but this timing may need to be adjusted as showers develop. Amendments for categorical changes due to stronger showers or thunderstorms may be needed over the second half of the TAF period, but these impacts shouldn`t last long. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record warm low of 84F was recorded in Marathon. This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in May. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 80 90 80 / 40 30 20 20 Marathon 86 79 86 80 / 40 30 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest