Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
898 FXUS62 KKEY 061743 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 143 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. As showers across the area slowly start to dimish, as a result VCSH will be removed later this afternoon. Near surface winds will be southerly at 5 to 10 knots through this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 A wet wet Saturday for the Florida Keys! Portions of the island chain in the Upper and Lower Keys saw radar estimates of 2 inches an hour and both required Flood Advisories for these heavy downpours over the last hour or so. Outside of those areas, a majority of the island chain has remained dry. Any shower that develops is capable of very heavy downpours as they aren`t very fast moving and the atmosphere is very saturated. This morning`s 12z KKEY sounding confirms that with just over 2 inches of PWAT measured. While any of these showers can become thunderstorms, the main threat of the day will remain flooding from the heavy rainfall as these showers have not been producing very high wind gusts. The rest of the day is expected to look similar to what has been occurring over the last almost week now. Wet and icky, though the sun might try and peak through in spots of the CWA. No changes were necessary to the current forecast package. && .FORECAST... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 A weak surface through lower level trough remains stuck in the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula. This trough is being sustained by a number of southern stream short wave troughs aloft rounding the semi permanent mid latitude trough rooted over eastern North America. An associated broad band of enhanced deep layered moisture remains strung across the Florida Peninsula and the Keys. Convective activity in our vicinity are in a down phase this morning with earlier activity raining out far to the east and new activity sprouting west of the Dry Tortugas. The previously mentioned lower trough will remain stationary through the weekend and well into next week. This will result in the band of high moisture remaining across our area. In addition, the steering flow will be weak and at times, poorly defined. This along with a lack of ridging at any level should result in above normal rain chances through this period with the highest chances early. Surface winds will be light and tend south to southwest, but periods of variability are likely. The Atlantic ridge tries to swing northwestward into Florida before mid week. However, latest guidance suggests its efforts will be cut short by a southern stream trough amplifying over the Gulf. To complicate things, the GFS indicates an inverted trough will also ride westward across our area, bringing its own slug of enhanced moisture and confluence. The weakness of synoptic forcing through the mid and long range is resulting in considerable uncertainty. For now will maintain high chance PoPs with near normal temperatures and moisture. && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Keys waters as minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely. Beyond that, no watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis,a surface trough will remain centered in the eastern Gulf and extend across the Florida Peninsula through the weekend and well into next week. This trough along with continued very high moisture levels and weak steering currents will generally result in greater convective coverage through the forecast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest