111
FXUS62 KKEY 060230
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal rain chances are expected through the weekend.

- Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes expected over the
  next few days.

- Near normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Where to even begin here. It was a day that many people we are
sure won`t forget here in Key West and even Stock Island. Key
West to Stock Island and even Boca Chica Key had quite the early
to mid afternoon with thunderstorms training over the area. As of
5 PM EDT, the Key West International Airport recorded 4.34 inches
of rainfall. This makes today June 5th, the 4th wettest June day
on record since records starting being kept in 1871. Also, this
set a new record for the date breaking the previous record of 2.11
inches set back in 1936. MRMS data shows estimated 24 hour
rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches across the Lower Keys, mainly for
Key West and Stock Island. Most of this rain fell in the short 1-2
hour window between 12-2 pm EDT. KBYX radar is much quieter now
with a couple showers remaining across the Straits and the SE
Gulf. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows the clouds
across the Keys slowly dissipating. This is much relief to
onslaught and deluge of an afternoon experienced. Temperatures
along the Island Chain remain quite cool compared to previous days
in the mid to upper 70s. Dew points are in the lower 70s. Surface
high pressure remains anchored off the Georgia coastline this
evening. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain
are recording mainly east breezes near 15 knots with occasional
gusts to near 20 knots.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
The 00z evening sounding displays a moist atmospheric profile,
though, there is noticeable dry air in the lowest several thousand
feet. The PWAT value measured was 2.09 inches which is above the
90th percentile for the date. Also, the CAPE value measured was
virtually 0 J/kg meaning that activity earlier today basically
used up all the juice and instability in the atmosphere. That
being said, the air mass has most likely been stabilized across
the Keys, at least for now. There remains rain chances overnight,
though, based on the latest profile of the atmosphere, showers
overnight may be far and few between. At the very best, showers
and thunderstorms may have a tough time redeveloping at least
until some daytime heating is able to take place again. We expect
the next several hours to remain shower free, though, some
indications are for some isolated showers to develop after 06/06z.
Due to this, no changes to the ongoing forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
There are currently, no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an
expansive eastern United States surface high will move off the
Carolina Coast will push into the Atlantic over the next few days.
As a result, mostly moderate easterly breezes will gradually give
way to gentle to moderate easterlies this weekend. The recent
bout of increased shower and thunderstorm activity is nearing its
end, and convective potential will fall closer to normal through
this period. Early next week the high will have pushed out into
the Atlantic and weak troughing is expected to set up over Cuba
and the Bahamas. This will tip breezes a bit further southeasterly
with, initially, some additional slackening. By midweek,
unsettled weather and increased rain and thunder chances will
return to the Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH
terminals through the TAF period. After the deluge today,
especially for EYW, a drier pattern is expected for the next few
days. However, chances for showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms do remain, especially after 06/06z continuing
through Saturday. Since there is decent agreement for shower
activity after 06/06z, VCSH was included in the TAF. It should be
noted that any shower activity over the next 24 hours won`t be
like today. Other than that, near surface winds will remain east
to southeast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  87  79  87  80 /  70  50  30  30
Marathon  85  79  86  79 /  70  30  20  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....DR

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