Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
287 FXUS62 KKEY 260844 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 444 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with elevated rain chances continuing into the weekend. - Mainly gentle east to southeast breezes today will briefly surge tonight to moderate breezes throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 444 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026 CIMSS products continues to show the stagnant split ridge pattern in place. One ridge remains centered across Texas and New Mexico while the second ridge remains over the eastern Atlantic to the west of the Azores. In between the two ridges, a broad mean layer trough remains anchored across much of the eastern United States. At the surface, the western periphery of the ridge over the Atlantic extends westward into the Florida Keys. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording southeast breezes near 10 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWATs of 1.8 to 2 inches across the Keys. KBYX radar has remained active for much of the overnight as a result with most of the activity across the SE Gulf waters and the Straits of Florida. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 80s and dew points are in the mid to upper 70s. .FORECAST... The pattern for the next several days can be summed up with the western periphery of Atlantic ridging remaining over the Keys along with bouts of moisture and embedded subtle upper level shortwaves traversing through. As moisture continues to round the western side of the high, rain chances will remain elevated through the remainder of the week. Overall, expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms to continue for the next several days. In addition, east to southeast breezes will peak in the evenings and overnight and lull in the afternoons. The interesting time frame continue to look like it will be in the late week/weekend time frame. This is when a stronger shortwave presses through the Keys, especially Friday/Friday night it appears right now. Therefore, late week continues to look like the bigger show as we will have basically all the ingredients lined up for robust convection. We will have the instability, moisture, and lift all lining up at the same time. More simply put, expect an unsettled weather pattern for the foreseeable future which is entirely normal for this time of the year. Average rain chances also peak for the month of September at 35%, which is less than a week away. It is also hard to pinpoint exact timing for convection as basically just expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and even into early next week. In addition, expect daytime highs near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Of course, temperatures may fall into the upper 70s where any showers and storms move over. TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 2 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic has a 70% chance of development through 48 hours and a 70% chance of development through the next 7 days. && .MARINE... Issued at 444 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic high is expected to maintain control of the Keys for the next several days. This will promote peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak in the evening through early morning and lull in the afternoons. The strongest surge of breezes is anticipated to be tonight where mostly moderate breezes are expected throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters. In addition, the southeasterly flow will also keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026 VFR conditions are mostly expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain east to southeast through the period. Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast with the best chance time for activity to potentially impact the terminals between 26/09z and 26/16z today. Due to decent confidence in the timing and placement for convection, PROB30 was kept in the TAFs. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2005, Hurricane Katrina lashed the Keys producing 9.66" of rain at Key West International Airport on the 26th. This is the wettest day on record for August and the fourth-wettest day ever recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. OF NOTE In 2005, at John Pennekamp State Park, a daily rainfall of 4.15" was recorded. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 83 90 83 / 40 40 50 40 Marathon 90 83 90 83 / 50 40 50 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest