324
FXUS62 KKEY 130132
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
932 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect. Low lying areas
  will see minor saltwater ponding around the times of high tide.

- A weak front will stall near or just south of the Florida Keys
  Tuesday morning. This will lead to low to medium chances for
  showers and thunderstorms over the next few days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
The frontal boundary that we`ve been tracking in recent days is
finally knocking on the doorstep of the Florida Keys this evening
and can be analyzed using the blended TPW product, which shows a
narrow corridor of enhanced PWATs up to 1.9 inches across the far
southern peninsula. Within this narrow region of moisture pooling
associated with the weak boundary and to the south across the
Keys, dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s are common at this time but
there are plenty of sites reporting dewpoints in the 60s across
much of the remainder of the peninsula, especially north of Lake
Okeechobee. Meanwhile, latest KBYX radar imagery is detecting just
mostly showers with an embedded storm or two moving to the SW
around the Gulfside waters adjacent to the Middle and Upper Keys
and also over the Atlantic waters across the Straits. Additional
isolated to scattered activity may attempt to develop overnight as
the aforementioned weak frontal boundary continues its gradual
crawl southward, eventually stalling in the Straits into Tuesday.
This will set the stage for higher rain chances on Tuesday in the
Straits with Chance/Likely PoPs tomorrow there with mostly just
Slight Pops for much of the island chain and especially the the
Gulf waters to the north. Thus, this will not be a clean frontal
passage in terms of scouring out deep-layer moisture in the entire
column, which is why the Florida Keys will miss out on those
sub-70 dewpoints that nearly the rest of the Sunshine State will
experience. However, our humidity levels will still be a touch
more comfortable Tuesday with dewpoints mostly in the mid 70s and
overnight lows tonight in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
So far today there has been minimal precipitation across our waters
despite a frontal boundary evident on vis satellite and surface
analysis extending from northeast to southwest across South Florida.
CIMSS steering products indicate that ridging remains centered over
the northern Gulf while Atlantic ridging extends across the Bahamas.
Mid-upper level troughing extends south along the Florida Peninsula,
promoting modest height falls (as noted on the 12Z RAOB) despite the
overwhelming anti-cyclonic presence nearby. Nonetheless, it appears
that subsidence from the surrounding regions of high pressure is
winning the battle today as upper-level troughing and weak surface
convergence have not been enough to produce much activity. In fact,
minimal development is noted along the front beyond our waters.
Also, MIMIC-TPW imagery shows the column of moisture ahead of the
trough/surface front is becoming pinched in between a broad region
of dry air advecting west across the Bahamas and the region of post-
frontal dry air advecting south, so favorable moisture content is
decreasing. Given the close proximity of the stalling front and
associated thin moisture axis near or just north of the Florida
Keys, it`s difficult to not mention at least a chance of
showers/storms through tonight. Additionally, the latest hi-res
guidance continues to show some potential for mainland convection to
track towards the Keys this evening. As far as tides and coastal
flooding is concerned, tidal anomalies are very slowly decreasing,
but overnight high tides continue to peak near Coastal Flood
Statement criteria, so the Statement will remain in effect for the
Florida Keys through at least tonight.

The diffuse frontal boundary will stall near or south of the island
chain tomorrow morning with a sharp gradient of drier air expected
to situate north of the Keys. This will continue to promote gentle
to moderate northeasterly breezes across our coastal waters while 30-
40% PoPs become focused across the Straits of Florida. By midweek,
the region of high-pressure over the Southeast will begin to shift
towards the Western Atlantic. This will promote deep-southeasterly
flow across the Florida Keys and should allow deeper moisture to
return. Persistent gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes
will continue during this time. By the end of the week, global
models suggest the mid/upper-level ridge will be fully centered
south of Bermuda while longwave troughing deepens across the Central
to Eastern CONUS. Recent model runs have begun to resolve a stronger
subtropical ridge which means the prospects of a strong frontal
passage across the Keys this weekend has decreased. This evolution
still bears watching over the coming days, but current solutions
stall a cold front across the northern Gulf, focusing the higher
winds north of our waters. Another feature to watch is an easterly
wave currently in the Caribbean Sea. This feature may meander
towards the Yucatan this week, potentially becoming more influential
to our perceivable weather by the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Despite a cold front to
our north, precipitation has been minimal so far today.

From synopsis, a couple of nearby features will define the
weather across the Florida Keys for the first half of the week.
The Atlantic Ridge is gradually weakening and retreating east
towards the central Atlantic. Another region of high pressure is
located over the Southeast and northern Gulf. Between the two high
pressure centers lies a weak frontal boundary that is extending
across south Florida. The front is forecast to slowly pass across
the Keys waters by tomorrow. This will promote gentle to moderate
northeast to east breezes. There will be slight chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms over the next few days as the
diffuse and weakening front stalls near the Straits of Florida.
Late in the week, a strong cold front could develop and move
towards the Florida Keys. Currently, there are low chances that
the front will make it to the Florida Keys waters. We will
continue monitoring this potential system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 925 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
A weak frontal boundary will slide across the Florida Keys
overnight with some isolated SHRA/TSRA development possible ahead
of this boundary. However, only VCSH has been added to the most
recent TAF issuance as overall coverage of any precip activity
should be rather low with minimal restrictions at most. Thus, VFR
conditions should generally prevail throughout the period with NE
winds around 5-7 kts tonight and increasing to near 10 kts on
Tuesday following the frontal passage.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...RG
Aviation/Nowcasts....RG
Data Acquisition.....PV

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and X at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.x.com/nwskeywest